A couple weeks ago I posted my initial thoughts about the NFL Win Total lines. After some comments from you all, some further research, and discussion between Hambone and myself, we're ready to commit to these:
Green Bay Packers Over 8 Wins -130 (WSEX), 5.2 units to win 4 units
I'm surprised this didn't get cheaper in the wake of the Favre departure. Maybe it did, but then Aaron Rodgers' competence and the signing of Ryan Grant brought it back. I don't know. What I do know is that Pro Football Prospectus projected 11.4 wins, and I don't see any reason to think they completely whiffed on this one. The team has talent at virtually every position. If there's a hole, I guess maybe it's the secondary, but who exactly do you see in the NFL North that can exploit that hole? The Lions? Funny you should mention them ....
Detroit Lions Under 6.5 Wins +100 (WSEX), 3 units to win 3 units
The Lions 6-2 start to the season was a mirage. In fact, even their 7-9 record was underserved, coming against weakened opponents by small margins, while getting blown out of the water every time they faced a challenge, save perhaps for one decent road win against a mediocre Bears team. I am not the first to document this. Pro Football Prospectus did so in great detail (thus the 4.3 win projection) and I assume The Money Line Journal explained it as well, although I can no longer read his blog due to a new workplace firewall and a malfunctioning laptop. Anyway, there's not a lot to like about the 2008 Lions.
Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins +105 (Matchbook), 3 units to win 3.15 units
I admit it- I'm afraid to make a huge bet on this team's failure, even though the numbers suggest I should do so. Maybe it's because they've shown either incredible good fortune or "something else" by staying far more healthy than the average NFL team over the last three years. I figure I should hedge a bit in case it's "something else," i.e. a talented medical staff and/or some sort of performance enhancing drugs. Note that I have no evidence to back up that last allegation, other than the complete lack of morality shown by this franchise over the last 15 years. Note also that I am a Redskins fan.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8 Wins -135 (Matchbook), 2.7 units to win 2 units.
Pro Football Prospectus projects 10.5 wins, and as I said in my last post, Jon Gruden is the second-best coach in the NFL. The juice is tough to handle, but worth a couple units here.
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1 comment:
I'm right with you on these. And I was reading some more of the prospectus and they're projecting Illinois for 4 wins this year. So I thought about it and jumped on Illinois under 7 +100 at bodog. Worth a look. It was under 8 -240 at the greek.
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