If you're so inclined, please take a moment to review and comment on my Saturday post on NFL win total bets. I'm trying to gather opinions and come up with a good list for everyone before the season starts.
On to the Monday baseball:
Cincinnati Reds +120 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.2 units.
I gave up on Bronson Arroyo on my fantasy team months ago. I'm not sure why I still think he's worth risking money on, but at least I'm not alone. His peripherals still suggest he's been unlucky, and he's due for a few good outings. 63% of the public on the Brewers on the road.
Baltimore Orioles +200 (BetUS) 1 unit to win 2 units.
What the hell does BetUS have against the Orioles? At the end of the season I might have to go back and figure out how much money could have been made by simply playing the Orioles at BetUS 162 times.
Anyway, O's starter Sarfate does not inspire confidence, but hopefully his propensity to walk a lot of guys won't burn him too badly against the Angels, who can't be bothered to take pitches. Hey, if I was leading my division by 11.5 games in August, I'd be in a hurry to get out of the heat and back to my hotel room with a couple groupies, too. This is mostly a fade of Saunders, though. I think our repeated Saunders fades now officially satisfy the clinical requirements for masochism.
Pittsburgh Pirates +260 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.3 units.
This is nothing more than a "sanity" play. If they win at a number like +260 and we're not on it, it will haunt us for our remaining years. I'm in terrible health and Hambone is old as hell, so we're not talking about too many years, but it's still worth avoiding. I know the books are trying to sucker us with dreams of a big payday, but hey, I'm a dreamer. Public is closing in on 2-1 for the D-backs, which is somewhat reassuring.
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Here are the picks/bets my simulator spit out for today's games. After regressing back a bit mid-week, my simulator picking method had a huge weekend. I am not inspired by what it is picking today, but let's see if the roll continues or peeters out. vr, Xei
Hou($253) +180
TB($252) -124
Tex($265) +146
Bos($141) +102
Col($150) -210
Pit($337) +260
Bal($279) +185
Sea($218) +114
Note: Odds are from Pinnacle, taken late last night when I ran the games through my simulator.
Pittsburgh is up to a ridiculous +285 at BetUS. I don't even know what to make of that.
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