2008 College Football Letdown Spots - ACC Part 1

Of all the sports, it's always seemed to me that college football teams are more prone to emotional highs and lows than any other. Because there are so few games each season, and each one can be so crucial to a season, it stands to reason that 19-20 year olds especially would have weeks when their emotions are running higher than others, and sometimes in the weeks just before or just after a big game, you can catch a team in a letdown or look-ahead moment. Or, some weeks, teams are caught in between the two (the "sandwich" game).

Now, I'm not suggesting that anybody go out and bet against these teams on these dates automatically. Most importantly, of course, we don't know what the lines are yet, which some folks still think is an important aspect of sports handicapping. Also, because some of these games are months away, there's no way to know about injuries, suspensions, and the like. Also, I'm not necessarily predicting that the teams discussed will lose the game in question straight-up, but if you see one of these teams getting a little too much love from the linesmakers in these spots, it might afford you a good opportunity to cover the spread by going the other way. And even if you think the notion is complete bullshit, at least it gives us an excuse to start talking about college football, right?

OK, with all of the disclaimers out of the way, here's a dicey scheduling spot for each of the teams in the ACC Atlantic Division:

Boston College

- 10/25/08 at North Carolina -

A BC team that lost a lot of production to graduation (and apparently suffered some injuries in Spring practice) travels to Chapel Hill to face a UNC team that should be much improved, one week after a big home game vs. Virginia Tech (preseason ranking: #13) and the week before a home game vs. preseason ACC favorite, Clemson. To add to the look-ahead distraction, BC has the annual "Who's the toughest Catholic school" contest against Notre Dame right after the Clemson game. It's hard to imagine the BC kids getting up emotionally for the UNC game in the middle of that stretch.

Clemson

- 11/22/08 at Virginia -

The preseason favorite to win the conference and top-10-ranked team faces a tough emotional stretch of games once November comes along this year. On November 1st, the Tigers travel to BC looking to avenge one of their two home losses from last season, then the next week brings the Bowden at Florida State. The next week (11/15), a steep drop in the level of competition as they get to feast on Duke for their Homecoming game before traveling to Charlottesville on November 22, with their traditional rivalry game against the South Carolina Gamecocks looking the following week on the 29th. Most of the country might not pay much attention, but I was born and raised in South Carolina, and for the students at those schools and people who live in that state, the SC/Clemson rivalry is as heated as any other annual matchup that you can name.

Florida State

- 11/1/08 at Georgia Tech -

Not much explanation required here. The week before, hosting Virginia Tech, and the week after, hosting Clemson in the annual Bowden Bowl. Good luck focusing on the Yellow Jackets in between.

Maryland

- 11/15/08 vs. North Carolina -

This one was pretty easy, sandwiched in between a road game at Virginia Tech and a home game vs. Florida State. If you want a less obvious letdown spot, keep an eye out for the line on the September 20 contest vs. Eastern Michigan. Maryland won't lose this game, but sandwiched in between a non-conference game vs. Cal on 9/13 and their conference opener against Clemson on 9/27, Maryland may have a hard time covering a large spread that Saturday (the size of the spread will be affected, of course, by Maryland's performance in the Cal game). With Clemson on deck, Maryland would be wise to rest some starters in the second half of the EMU game if they get out in front early.

North Carolina State

- 9/20/08 vs. East Carolina -

It's difficult to find a letdown game for teams that are expected to suck (what do I with Duke?), but this might be the best chance to catch NC State as an overrated favorite, especially considering that NC State beat ECU on the road last year 34-20. The week before the game this year, the Wolfpack has a trip to Death Valley to face Clemson (a team everybody should be getting up for this year). Then, starting the week after the ECU game, NC State faces the triple look-ahead threat of home games vs. nationally-ranked South Florida (9/27), Coach O'Brien's former team (BC on 10/4), and then the Thursday night ESPN game vs. Florida State.

Wake Forest

- 9/27/08 vs. Navy -

Again, I'm not saying Wake will lose this game, but it's a good spot to find an over-inflated spread and the public all over the home team. This might sound familiar, but the Navy game is another sandwich spot between a road game at Florida State on 9/20 and a Thursday night home contest on 10/9 against guess who, Clemson.

Back in a couple of days with Coastal Division where we try to answer the age-old question: Can Duke have a letdown game in football, or is every game a letdown?

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