Tonight two of my childhood heroes, Art Monk and Darrell Green, are being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. And so, for the first time, I am sitting down and watching the induction ceremonies. It turns out that they are painfully boring, at least so far. But with my mind on football, my girlfriend and my dog both napping peacefully, and a beer in my hand, what better time to take our first look at the NFL win total bets?
Here's the basic methodology: I looked at the win total over/unders on WSEX, The Greek and 5 Dimes. Generally they had the same win totals and just minor variations in the prices. I compared these numbers to the Pro Football Prospectus win total projections. I looked more closely at any team whose projected win total differed by 1.5 wins or more from the number at the books. The juice varies wildly from team to team and obviously should also play a role.
Below I've listed what I like so far. Please share your thoughts in the comments section of via email. I know these bets can't be as smart as the MLB win total bets simply because there's a lot more left to chance over 16 games than there is over 162 games. But hopefully we can find substantial value.
Baltimore Ravens. Pro Football Prospectus projection: 8.5 wins, Best Line: Over 6.0 -115 (WSEX). Strength of Schedule: 17th.
Hambone and I got burned on an over bet on the Ravens last year, so I'm a little wary, but this is one of the biggest disparities on the board. A new head coach, an unsettled QB situation, and a lack of depth in the secondary also make me a little gun-shy. But a 2.5 win disparity is a 2.5 win disparity.
Carolina Panthers: PFP projects 9.5 wins. Best Line: Over 7.5 -160 (WSEX). SOS: 21st.
Tough schedule and, apparently, some chemistry issues which will leave them without their best offensive weapon for the first two weeks. But that loss may be irrelevant- I'd be shocked if they didn't end the first two weeks 1-1 regardless of Steve Smith's status, since they open at San Diego then host Chicago. I like this team a lot. I think the one-two punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will be effective, and the defense is balanced and deep. They struggled to get stops on third down last year, and PRP tells me that teams that have third-down struggles as compared with their first and second down performance generally improve their overall numbers the next year.
Cleveland Browns: PFP projects 6.3 wins. Best Line: Under 8 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 4th.
I agree with Pro Football Prospectus and pretty much every other NFL fan out there- I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Derek Anderson this year. To top that off, their defense was all over the board last year- the second-highest variance in the league. So, yeah, I have no fucking clue. The +110 certainly makes it tempting, but I'm wary. Let me know what you think, folks.
Dallas Cowboys: PFP projects 8.1 wins. Best line: Under 10.5 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 5th.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Seattle Mariners, part II. Sign me up. The only reason to hesitate is that their success over the last two years has been in large due to uncanny good health, and the projections assume some regression on that, but it's possible their training staff is just that good. PFP actually talks about this a bit.
Detroit Lions: PFP projects 4.3 wins. Best line: Under 6.5 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 3rd.
Their playoff contention and 7-9 final record was the result of tremendous good luck and an amazingly weak schedule in the first half of the season. As you can see above, no such luck on the scheduling this year. If you think, as I do, that the Packers and the Vikings are contenders, but are wary of their QB situations, here's another way to approach the division right here.
Green Bay Packers: PFP projects 11.4 wins. Best line: Over 8.0 -130 (WSEX). SOS: 13th.
Most books have taken down their lines here for obvious reasons. Let's hope they trade Favre and the ESPN talking heads start trashing them. They have a great O-line, a better-than-average defense, and decent talent at the skill positions. Their front office has been so good at judging talent elsewhere that I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on Rodgers here. I like this, but it's probably worth waiting to see how the mess shakes out.
Minnesota Vikings: PFP projects 10.1 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -125 (WSEX). SOS: 11th.
A lot of these come down to the fact that the lines reflect the public's overemphasis on the QB. Nowhere is that more apparent than here. PFP projects an 80% chance this team finishes with 9 or more wins. The only reason I see to hesitate is if you think Tarvaris Jackson can completely destroy an otherwise promising season. Or if you don't want to deal with the stress of a possible 0-2 start (at GB, home vs. IND).
Oakland Raiders: PFP projects 3.9 wins. Best line: Under 6.5 wins -160 (WSEX). SOS: 16h.
I gotta be honest with you, I just don't have much of a feel for this team at all. There's the obvious problem of evaluating a team with a QB drafted #1 overall about to start his first season under center. However, I think I'm willing to fade a team who is last in the fucking league at stopping the run, and subsequently decides to pass on the best DT prospect in years in the draft. What. The. Fuck.
Philadelphia Eagles: PFP projects 11.7 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -160 (WSEX). SOS: 27th.
I know, I'm as surprised as you are. Caveat Emptor- PFP says their projections consistently forecast success for the Eagles, and the Eagles consistently underperform. Apparently they're the opposite of Ichiro, who consistently outperforms prediction tools. This one comes down just how much you think Asante Samuel will help, and whether you're willing to risk your money on Westbrook and McNabb's health.
Pittsburgh Steelers: PFP projects 7.2 wins. Best line: Under 9.0 wins -105 (WSEX). SOS: 1st.
I can always be persuaded otherwise, but I expect to pass on this one. It's clearly a function of their strength of schedule, which is always worth looking, but I'm not sure I can make a play that is based almost entirely on a SOS determination.
Seattle Seahawks: PFP projects 10.5 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -165 (5 Dimes). SOS: 24th.
I just wanted to prove I was actually looking at sites other than WSEX. The defense has improved by leaps and bounds over the last few years, and this year looks to be more of the same. I have a hard time having faith in bald quarterbacks-consider it a mental block- but he keeps getting the job done. Apparently they've got a new O-line coach who is considered the league's best (came over from KC), so i don't think they'll miss a beat on the ground. The juice here is a problem, though.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: PFP projects 10.5 wins. Best line: Over 8.0 wins -130 (WSEX)> SOS: 23rd.
Another one complicated by the Favre uncertainty. As a bettor, I really hope he re-retires. It would create a lot more value for me. PFP projects an 83% chance this team finishes with 9 wins or better. Nothing wrong with that. The talent at the skill positions doesn't grab you, but then again, maybe that's why there's value. The O-line gives me pause, but it's not terrible. People really should start to give Gruden the credit he deserves- he's one of the best coaches in the league. If I could choose a guy to head my team, it would be him. You know, since the other candidate thinks the fans are a hurdle to success, not a reason to seek it.
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12 comments:
I like quite a few of these myself. Nice work.
Taking a hard look at the Dallas under and the Vikings over.
This Favre situation is really fucking annoying, though. Probably going to wait to see what comes of this mess before (and if) I make any moves. Nice writeups
I just hammered the shit out of the Lions under. I will post about it in a few days. FO was obviously the inspiration for it though.
Thx for the post - i was able to get similar lines on sportsbook - i took Eagles (of course), Ravens, and Bucs and under on Cowboys (of course), Lions and Browns.
What do you think of over on Cincy 7 (-130)? How about under on Jags 10 (-110).
One trend that has been been very profitable is to take under on team that lost the previous Super Bowl - NE under 12 (+155) might be a good play.
Rosie, I don't have my notes or my "bible" (i.e. my Pro Football Prospectus) here with me at work. If I remember correctly, Cincy at 7 looked about right- that is, I didn't like either side-, and I had no idea what to make of the Jags.
Like many people, I had been assuming I'd play the Patriots Under for months now, but they projected to 13 wins or thereabouts. It's largely a function of the schedule, rated as the easiest in the league.
At +155 i can't resist...they are getting older.
Skip Bayless says that following the Favre trade, the Jets will go 12-4 this season and the Packers will be "lucky" to win 6 games. So, now we know that Jets Over and Packers Under are mortal locks, right?
so if Jets are going 12-4 - the Pats CANT win 12 too...worth a flier on under at +155.
The NFC north stinks - I'm not sure i'd take under on GB yet.
Rosie, I said Skip Bayless on ESPN said those things and I was joking about following his advice. Hard to do sarcasm in writing sometimes. You are on the right track with Green Bay - a couple more NFL Countdown shows with the gang bashing the Packers, we hopefully can get a better line on the Packers Over.
Quick thought and I'm not trying to piss in anyone's corn flakes... I agree with most of these internally, but I'm not positive that FO (or Pro Football Prospectus) is that far from the mainstream anymore. Today this book is #312 on Amazon overall. That's big. It's out front in the Borders I walked into today. This info is hitting the mainstream. Obviously ESPN idiots are still a bigger part of the zeitgeist, but some of this has to be accounted for in the line, right? Is there any chance that maybe this stuff isn't "our little secret" anymore? Or at least not as much as we think?
-RB
Rob and others-
That's true to some degree. However, I recall reading somewhere that Baseball Prospectus was one of the five most visited sites on the internet, and that didn't stop people from laying money on the Mariners Over 84.5 or the Rays under 72. Nobody ever went broke overestimating the stupidity of the public.
Explaining my previous comment- Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection tools had Seattle and T.B. each ten games or more off those numbers.
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