Sunday Quickies

Busy day for a Sunday, so just a couple of quick afternoon baseball picks:

Nationals -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Twins +168, 1 unit to win 1.68 units

Probably back later to hedge our futures bet on the Magic.

Friday Four Pack

Let's not dilly-dally. There's beer in the fridge with my name on it. All lines from Matchbook:


Washington Nationals +101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit.

Money pouring in on Phils, line hasn't moved much. What if I told you that the Washington Nationals, butt of jokes from here to Timbuktu, have a better third-order record this season than the World Series Champion Phillies. Is that something you might be interested in? Here they also have the better starter, if only slightly, and Lannan's lefthandedness should come in particularly handy against the famously lefty-happy Phillies lineup. And yet you can get a plus number on them. In Washington. With the Nats coming off a rest day and the Phils coming off extra innings. How is that possible? I dunno. Why ask why.


Cleveland Indians +152, 1 unit to win 1.52 units.

Hambone likes this number, which he thinks affords too much respect to Kazmir and the Rays. I'm iffy, but I like Injuns, so I'm on board.



Baltimore Orioles +202, 1 unit to win 2.02 units.

Nobody said it was gonna be easy to win money betting on baseball. Betting with us here requires you to put money on Adam Eaton over Zach Greinke. Ugh. Not easy to pull the trigger there. But the fact is, as awful as that matchup sounds, public perception probably exaggerates it a lot. Greinke's not gonna break Bob Gibson's ERA mark, but as long as he's getting lines that seem to suggest he will, we might as well take advantage. And Eaton's not the worst pitcher in the history of baseball. He's been mediocre but not terrible this year. Really only one terrible start. O's are worth a shot at better than 2 to 1 here.


Minnesota Twins +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units.

I challenge you, the reader, to give me one single reason to think that this pitching matchup (Liriano vs. Hughes) favors the Yankees. It doesn't. Sure, the Yankees have the more talented offensive lineup, but I'm gonna need to see some 2009 production, not just famous names, before I think they deserve to be the favorite in a game in which the opponent has the better starter and the better bullpen. In the meantime, I'll keep fading Hughes at numbers like +121 and take my chances, thank you.

Thursday Night - Betting & Line Movement

That's all I looked at for these, lines from Matchbook:

NBA

Orlando Magic -7 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

NHL

Carolina Hurricanes +192, 0.5 units to win 0.96 units

Anaheim Ducks +224, 0.5 units to win 1.12 units

Enjoy the games, folks.

Thursday Afternoon

Just one baseball game that we both like today so far:

Padres +151 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.51 units

FYI, this game is scheduled for 2:20 PM Eastern time. Gaudin is not as bad as that line would suggest, and Dempster is not that good. Public is betting on the Cubs, but the line has been tumbling the opposite direction since last night. Exactly what we like to see.

Back later with NHL/NBA.

Lets Go Caps!

As a Tar Heel, I am one of the very few residents of the greater Washington, DC area who has seen one of "his teams" win it all in the last fifteen years or so. I challenge you to find a city that has lived with more sports-related pain and disappointment over the last two decades. It's not just the lack of titles: none since the 1991-1992 Redskins, and only one runner-up spot (1998 Caps). It's the abject misery of the last decade. The Dan Snyder Era. Michael Jordan missing the playoffs, Gilbert's bum knee, and LeBron's many four-step game-winners. Thirty years without baseball, followed by four years of watching a AAA team play in the major leagues.

Thanks to Roy Williams, I personally have no grounds for complaint about the last decade or two as a sports fan. But please, Caps, get it done tonight, and give my D.C. brethren a reason to love sports again.

Anyway, back to gambling. Here's the unofficial play:

Los Angeles Dodgers

I love them as an underdog in this game. No Manny? Really? That's all it takes to make a 22-12 team underdogs facing a Jamie Moyer who is very obviously (finally) done and a Phillies team that has, frankly, sucked this season? Are bettors still stuck on that whole "World Series Champions" thing? Have they completely missed how mediocre this team is? Their third-order record is under .500. Sure, Rollins can't be this awful all year ... but Ibanez can't stay this hot, either. Fading this team the rest of the way, or at least until America catches on, should be profitbale.

Unfortunately, Hambone is out of commission today and I can't look at lines at work, so I can't make it a play until I got home, probably close to 7 PM. Thus the "unofficial" status for now. Posting picks at 6:55 for a 7:05 first pitch is of no use to you, and we're all about customer service here.

EDIT: OK, let's make it official:

Los Angeles Dodgers +102 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.02 units.

Tuesday baseball

Ah, good to be back. All lines from Matchbook today:


Seattle Mariners +137, 1 unit to win 1.37 units.

Our Mariners love this year is well-documented. Neither starter is anything to write home about, so we'll play the better team at that number.


Pittsburgh Pirates +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit.

We're not buying the Cards this year, and the third-order numbers back us up on that, so we'll take even money with the slightly inferior club but the better starter at home. Simple as that.


Washington Nationals +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units.

It hurts to get off the Cain train, but there's gonna be a ton of value in the Nats the rest of this year. Teams that are 10-20 in the standings but who have third-order records of 14.6-15.4 tend to be that way. Just stay away from the Olsen and Cabrera starts if you want to preserve your sanity. Zimmermann can keep you sane.

K-Mart Slaps Cuban's Daughter, Cuban Orders Hit on Kenyon's Cat

The Mark Cuban/Kenyon Martin feud is getting out of hand. David Stern considered intervening, but the confrontation is boosting ratings in what was a boring series, so the NBA is predictably staying out of it for now.

One pick in the NBA Tuesday night:

Magic +2 -102 (Matchbook), 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Hmmmmmm. The Celtics Game 4 win in Orlando has been discussed, and the last shot replayed, on ESPN 412 times already, and now in Boston, the Magic are only 2-point underdogs? Ridiculous. 70% of the bets coming in on Boston, but the line has actually retreated from the opener of -2.5 down to -2. Something's up here, and we'll climb on board for 1 unit.

Grover will be back in a couple of hours with the baseball picks.

Sunday Afternoon Action - Mother's Day Edition

Never made it back to the computer before last night, which is a shame considering both NHL underdogs won and even the Nationals picked up another road win. Moving on to Sunday, Mother's Day commitments make it unlikely we'll be available later, so here's everything for today, lines from Matchbook:

MLB

Braves +135, 1 unit to win 1.35 units

Pretty much a coin flip, although Kawakami has been slightly better, but the public is on the World Champion Phillies. And they're saying it like that when they put in their bets.

Orioles +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units

Only +131 against the mighty Yankees and Joba the Hut? Seems a little short. More strikeouts and more walks for Chamberlain. Hoping the the latter bites him on his big fat ass like that swarm of gnats in Cleveland a couple of years ago.

Mariners -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

No real contrarian angle on this one, just a complete pitching mismatch. Not a lot of hitting expected in this one, so we'll take the more dominant starter and the bullpen (Nathan excepted) that's been performing better so far.

Padres +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units

Not as much history to look at with Geer as opposed to Oswalt, but so far, so good. His strikeout rate isn't very high, but Oswalt hasn't exactly been mowing them down either. Line drop overnight makes me think there's value in the nice dog number.

NHL

Anaheim Ducks +210, 0.5 units to win 1.05 units

Public huge on the home team (Hockeytown!) today, but the Ducks continue to surprise, taking one game in Detroit already (and 2 in San Jose) this postseason. Ducks are virtually even with the Wings on both sides of the power play, and have the best goalie in the playoffs. Tons of value here.

Good luck everybody, and don't forget to phone your Mom. When I rolled over and woke her up this morning she said she was expecting a call.

Saturday Afternoon Baseball

Wow, a winning night in baseball and hockey. I guess miracles can happen. Recovering from an all-night poker game, so just the picks, without any fanfare or my lame attempts at humor (and there was much rejoicing...). Lines from Matchbook, all risking 1 unit:

Oakland A's +100

San Francisco Giants +136

Atlanta Braves +106

Good luck everybody. Back later. Probably.

Friday Night Moneyline Sports

Baseball and hockey, all lines from Matchbook, all risking 1 unit:

MLB

Braves +162

Hamels hasn't pitched as badly as his ERA would have you believe, but Jo Jo has been solid and this line is over-inflated.

Padres +150

Ditto on this one. Gaudin's FIP so far is a respectable 3.56 and his strikeout rate is higher than Wandy's.

Nationals +117

The worst team in the history of baseball (at least, if you ask anybody living in the DC area) is only +117 on the road? Ludicrous.

Tigers +122

I don't know how to check this, but Verlander has got to have the most deceiving ERA in a long time. His ERA is 5.66, but that's inflated by his .381 BABIP, and look at his other numbers (K/BB = 45/12, K/9 = 11.57, WHIP = 1.37, etc.). He's pitching incredibly well, but you wouldn't know it unless you looked deeper, and most people don't.

A's +107

Richmond's 4-0 record must be keeping the Bluejays as the favorite in this game, because it doesn't make any sense otherwise. Over 70% are taking the road favorite.

NHL

Carolina Hurricanes +111

Boston in a "must-win" situation on the road tonight, and the public is jumping on board. Predictably, we're going the other way and backing the home dog.

Just Manny Being Annie?

As everyone has heard by now, except for the guy that traded for Manny last night in my fantasy baseball league and had not heard the news (ha!), Manny Ramirez has been suspended for 50 games for violating MLB's anti-drug policy. According to reports, Ramirez did not test positive for steroids, but rather for a banned women's fertility drug, HCG. Stephen/Stephanie Peterson of the Gay, Lesbian, And Miscellaneous (G.L.A.M.) task force, a division of the ACLU, claims, "This is just one more example of Major League Baseball discriminating against transgender players." When pressed for another example of such discrimination, Mr./Ms. Peterson was unable to think of one.

Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers doesn't see what the fuss is all about. "Steve Garvey used to wear thongs or even panty hose under his uniform, but nobody cared. It was the 70's, man, it was a glorious time of sexual experimentation and moustaches." 2009 Hall of Fame inductee, Rickey Henderson, tried to distance himself from the controversy, saying, "Rickey says Rickey never took no girlie pills. If you don't believe me, you can ask Rickey." Oddly, the Players Union has not appealed MLB's ruling. Explains Executive Director, Donald Fehr, "Sure, we could challenge the suspension, but what happens if we're successful? Then all the players would want to start taking female hormones. Pretty soon, you've got tampon machines in the dugouts. I guess it would be interesting to see, given all the time spent together, if the players would eventually all have the same menstrual pattern." Talk about hitting for the cycle...

Breaking News - Favre Considering Playing Next Season

That News Flash I've been hearing about all day is right up there with "New Book Alleges A-Rod May Have Lied About Steroid Use" on the list of shocking news stories that didn't actually shock anybody. The picks (fades) for tonight:

MLB

Indians +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units

A number that really jumped off the page at us earlier today. Public still loving the big favorite Red Sox, but the line has dropped slightly. I guess the line and support can be attributed to a combination of the love for the Sox and the hatred of Carl Pavano and his 7.46 ERA and 1-3 record (plus the memories of his injury-plagued stint with the Yankees). But Pavano has pitched better than that. He has 19 strikeouts vs. only 5 walks so far this season, a FIP of 4.44, and a BABIP which has inflated his ERA at least a little bit.

NHL

Capitals +158 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.79 units

70% of the bets are coming in on the Penguins today, presumably due to this kind of thinking: "There's no way Pittsburgh can go down 0-3 in the series because they have Sidney Crosby on their team and he's been talked about on SportsCenter, like, a million times!" We are almost always looking to go the other way in "must-win" situations like this. If Theodore was still in goal for the Caps, I would be hesitant, but the switch to Varmalov has really turned a weakness into a strength. Obviously, the Penguins should be favored, but this line looks like an over-reaction and the line retreat makes it look like the books know it.

Good luck everybody.

No Time To Explain

Tuesday afternoon baseball, each risking 1 unit:

Indians +110

Orioles +180

Good luck everybody.

Martis Tosses Complete Game, Cripples DC Subway System

Shairon Martis pitched a complete game in the Nationals 6-1 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday, the franchise's first complete game from any pitcher since 2006. Unfortunately, because the Nationals game and Washington Capitals playoff game vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins both started at 1 PM, the impossible-to-predict complete game from Martis meant that the baseball game ended at the same time as the hockey game instead of an hour later, spilling fans from both games into the subway at the same time. Ordinarily, the extra five to six hundred Nationals fans wouldn't have been an issue, but Saturday was Latino Heritage Day and the free T-shirts ("Los Nacionales, Al Rojo Vivos!") provided to fans brought nearly 20,000 fans to the stadium. Said hedge-fund trader Brett Doctrum, "With the firm not giving out bonuses this year, the free shirt was impossible to resist." Not even the swine flu frenzy being whipped up on Republican talk radio was enough to overcome the lure of free clothing.

D.C. Transit Chief John Ohlenbach was stunned by the subway delays, saying only "Washington D.C. has a baseball team? I had no idea." No deaths were reported after the subway incident, but officials said things could have gotten out of hand if Nationals fans had been given time to have more than 3 beers before the 7th-inning stretch and accompanying last call. Still, the situation was one that won't soon be forgotten. Upon emerging from the Dupont Circle Metro escalator bruised and beaten, and carrying a ripped Los Nacionales T-shirt in each hand, D.C. resident Vance Terry told this reporter, "It's like 'Lord of the Flies' down there," before disappearing into the nearest sex shop.

The picks:

Los Nacionales -143, 1.43 unit to win 1 unit

Grover and I were both at that Nationals game on Saturday, so some of that gibberish above is based on fact. And, yes, that is a MINUS sign next to the Washington Nationals at your sportsbook. They are actually favored to win a game. That's too goofy to pass.

San Francisco Giants +175, 1 unit to win 1.75 units

Disregard Jonathan Sanchez's ERA (2.60) because it's deceivingly BABIP-aided (he's been getting some lucky bounces on balls hit into play), but his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is the same as Dempster's and his strikeout rate is better, so +175 looks like good value today.

Waiting for This Week to End

Things just aren't going our way this week. Two baseball picks for tonight, lines from Matchbook, each risking 1 unit:

Arizona Diamondbacks +102

Suppan is horrible. I'm always skeptical of the D-Backs' ability to hit the ball, but against this guy, they have a great chance to prove me wrong. Brewers hitters aren't anything special against righties, and Scherzer is very talented.

San Diego Padres +141

Geer is no prize, but McDonald has looked terrible so far. More walks than strikeouts, and his WHIP of 1.66 is pathetic for a pitcher whose BABIP is only .232. Over 70% of the public is on the Dodgers, as expected (Manny-Mania!).

....If You Want To Be With Me

Still stuck at the office without my notes, so just one more for tonight:

Astros +143 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.43 units

Paulino pitching really well in a very small sample size. Volquez has been wild. I just looked at fangraphs, and Volquez's BB/9 so far is 8.85 which is horrendous.

Gotta have a J-O-B

Hambone and I both on our way to work obligations, so it's a drive-by posting for the afernoon games.

Seattle Mariners -113 (Matchbook), 1.13 units to win 1 unit.

Mariners were my favorite team to fade last year, they're my favorite team to play this year.

A National Joke

Once again, there's only one baseball pick that we've agreed on:

Nationals +172 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.72 units

Hamels has pitched better than his ERA (9.69) would lead you to believe, but Lannan has been solid, and if you're ever going to put hard-earned money behind the horrendously awful Washington Nationals, you're better off getting them when they're facing a lefty. That's a hell of an endorsement, I know.

Just One

Didn't have time to do my homework last night after getting in from out of town, so just one baseball pick for Monday:

Indians -117 (Matchbook), 1.17 units to win 1 unit

The combination of the Red Sox's weekend sweep of the Yanks and Cliff Lee's BABIP-inflated ERA makes me think there has to be value with the Indians tonight.

Good luck everybody.

Saturday Action

Getting ready to leave town until tomorrow night, so putting them all in now. Three MLB picks and one NBA pick for Saturday:

MLB

Nationals +173 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.73 units

Two pitchers who have been awful, and Cabrera's inability to strike hitters out (formerly, his only redeeming quality) is a concern. But, with crap on the mound for both sides, we'll take a chance with the +173.

Rockies -123 (WSEX), 1.23 units to win 1 unit

We liked Ubaldo coming into the season, and although the walks are troubling, some of the hits have just been bad luck. Still, his strikeout rate has been high, and his opponent's WHIP of 1.70 is even worse than it looks (BABIP = .254). Public on the Dodgers as usual.

Giants +119 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.19 units

Two days in a row on the Giants doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for success. Randy Johnson may not be the has-been people seem to think he is. His strikeout rate is still exceptional and Scherzer has not been as impressive as we thought he would be this season so far.

NBA

Jazz +4 +107 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.07 units

If this season has taught you anything, it is that you are probably better off going the opposite way of any basketball picks. Conventional wisdom seems to be that the mighty Lakers couldn't possibly lose 2 in a row to the #8 seed, and we're always looking to go against such thinking.

Friday Night Favorites

I can't remember the last time we played two favorites on the same night, but it is what is. Baseball picks for tonight, each to win 1 unit:

Giants -120 (WSEX)

A really short number for Lincecum, which gave me pause at first, but public isn't jumping on board the Giants and the number keeps rising. Doug Davis doesn't belong in the same ballpark with Lincecum, but his 2.57 ERA is probably giving us a little value here compared to Lincecum's 3.86. That's not a bad number for most pitchers, but Lincecum's .438 BABIP has his ERA artificially high at the start of the season. The D-Backs can't even hit the ball coming out of the hands of average pitchers, so expect double-digit strikeouts for Lincecum tonight.

Mariners -117 (Matchbook)

If you order a "Loux" in France, they bring you a shit sandwich. Yes, I'm multi-lingual.

Probably passing on the other sports tonight. Good luck everybody.

Afternoon Games and a Happy Jazzfest to All

I'm off to the Big Easy, so this is it for me until Tuesday. I leave you in Hambone's capable hands. I trust he'll wash them for you after changing diapers all day. Enjoy the weekend and the NFL Draft and all that stuff.

Both afternoon game lines are from Matchbook:

Milwaukee Brewers +156, 1 unit to win 1.56 units.

Something about Hamels doesn't look right this year. Of course, people seem to ignore little stuff like that when a team has "World Series Champions" next to their name. But the smart bettors ignore the "World Series Champions" next to a team's name and look at which team they think is gonna score more runs that day. We like Braun to tee off on the lefty Hamels for a big day today. Don't bet on that, though. Just bet on the game.

Cincinnati Reds +157, 1 unit to win 1.57 units.

Man, we hate betting on Dusty Baker teams. Willy Taveras leading off? Really? Seriosuly, if you know the guy, do him, us, and the fine citizens of Cincinnati a favor: take him aside and gently tell him that the game has passed him by.

However, we do like Aaron Harang. Don't know what was wrong with that guy last year, but it's starting to look like it was nothing more than a hiccup in a stellar career. He's sporting a monstrous ERA+ of 171 this year. Sure, the good but overrated Zambrano is on the mound for the Cubs, but +157 is an awfully juicy number for a guy with an ERA+ of 171. We don't think we could live with ourselves if we passed on that.

Wednesday Night

Running late as usual. Grover had some spoiled Purple Drank last night and was out of action for most of the day. The picks, all risking one unit:

MLB

Detroit Tigers +100 (WSEX)

Washington Nationals +121 (Matchbook)

Both Verlander (Tigers) and Lannan (Nats) are pitching much better than their ERAs would suggest, which has created value in those lines tonight.

NBA

New Orleans Hornets +6 +101 (Matchbook)

The Pistons needed just one more point last night to cover, but couldn't come through. Public likes the Nuggets to cover tonight, but we're not sold.

Good luck everybody.

Post-Quickie Cigarette

One more, from the NBA:

Pistons +11.5 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Everybody loves Lebron. We'll go the other way. Business as usual.

Tuesday Night Quickie

We're not lazy. Well, maybe a little. But really, there's only been two games we've liked over the last two days, and we just haven't had a lot to say about them. Here's tonight's special:

Oakland A's +187 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.87 units.

I'm not sure how many different ways there are to say that the Yankees are mediocre on offense without A-Rod in the lineup. I think this is the fourth time I've said it here. But if people want to keep giving quality ballclubs numbers like +187 against this relatively weak Yankees lineup and the Yanks' aging, presumably no longer cheating #4 starter, we'll keep playing them.

It's starting to sound like A-Rod's on his way back, at which time the Yankees might start to resemble the team people think they are. So get on the gravy train now, while the getting's good.

Monday Night Quickie

Just one for Monday night:

Nationals +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units

Nats sending their #1 prospect, Jordan Zimmerman, to the mound tonight. Against Derek Lowe, we expected a much higher number. The low number, plus the fact that it's even dropped a little despite big public betting support for the Braves, reinforces our belief that the books like Zimmerman tonight.

Sunday Action

Battery dying on my laptop, so doing these all together:

MLB

Royals +132, 1 unit to win 1.32 units

Is anybody pitching better than Kyle Davies right now? And it's not even a phony BABIP-influenced performance, he's been genuinely awesome.

Rockies +111, 1 unit to win 1.11 units

We still like Ubaldo and the Rockies offense.

NHL

Anaheim +226, 0.5 units to win 1.13 units

Seriously, you're going to give us this line and 70% of wagerline is on San Jose? "Dude, there is no freaking way the Sharks lose the first 2 games at home!" Yeah, ask the Caps about that (sorry, Grover). Anaheim is a good road team this year, they have the better goalie, and are pretty close offensively. Not a team that should be getting +226.

Good luck everybody.

Saturday Afternoon Picks

Headed out for family activities, so two for the afternoon quickly:

MLB

Brewers +167, 1 unit to win 1.67 units

Gallardo vs. Johan. Santana's not exactly known for coming into the early season ready to go, so April is always a good time to fade him when the number is good (and it almost always is). The Milwaukee lineup sets up very nicely versus lefties, with Fielder the only significant hitter who struggles against southpaws (and he's 3/6 vs. Santana - extremely small sample size, I know, I know). Gallardo's strikeout rate is actually projected (CHONE) to be higher than Santana this season.

NBA

Detroit Pistons +12 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

We've had a lousy basketball season this year, so feel free to ignore, but fading Lebron just feels like the right thing to do.

Back later if we have time. Good luck everybody.

NBA Playoffs Series Picks and Future

Luckily, others who are smarter than me (especially at math) have done all of the heavy lifting already. The picks:

Orlando Magic to win the NBA Championship +1500 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 15 units

Looking at all of the same calculations as our friend over at Numbers Don't Lie...Sometimes, this longshot has a lot of value. There's talk out there (looking at you, ESPN commentators) about injuries to Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu, but they sound rather minor and I don't expect either to miss any time. The +1500 translates to a 6.25% chance of winning, and all three of the calculations over at Numbers Don't Lie give the Magic a better statistical chance than that ranging from the lowest number from xlssports (9.31%) to the probably over-optimistic number (13.3%) from ESPN's John Hollinger. If any of the math is even close, this is best Championship future available. Not to mention KG's injury, which probably bumps up the chances at least a little bit for everybody else to get to the Finals out of the East.

First Round Series Picks

Atlanta Hawks -141 (Matchbook) to advance to 2nd round, 4.23 units to win 3 units

Xlssports is the only one of the 3 sources cited above that broke down the chances of teams advancing past the first round, so we're going to use those numbers in putting together the series picks for the first round (they better be close, Erich!). The -141 would correlate to a 58.51% chance of winning, but the numbers have the Hawks winning 70.28% of the time. Even with Dwyane Wade getting the benefit of the doubt on every whistle, there's still a lot of value there. And, yes, that's how Wade's momma spelled his first name.

New Orleans Hornets +196 (Matchbook) to advance to the 2nd round, 2 units to win 3.92 units

Same idea here - the line reflects a 33.78% chance of winning, and Erich's numbers give them a 44% chance to advance. Nice.

Utah Jazz +1850 (Matchbook) to advance to the 2nd round, 0.5 units to win 9.25 units

Yes, a huge longshot and we'll almost certainly be looking for a spot to hedge at some point, but the numbers are what they are. +1850 = 5.13% to win the series and the xls numbers give the Jazz a 21.13% chance of advancing. Even if that number is wildly optimistic, there's a ton of value here. Looking at Hollinger's odds to make the finals, the Lakers come in at 34.6% and the Jazz 3.1% which puts the Lakers chances only about 10 times better to win the West than the Jazz, so getting 18.5-1 is hard to resist. And Lakers fans, please spare us the "Bynum's back!" sentiment, because although it's true that the Lakers numbers include a lot of games when Bynum didn't play, the Jazz numbers also include a lot of games where Deron Williams and/or Carlos Boozer didn't play. Williams much more important to the Jazz than Bynum is to the Lakers, and although Bynum has had a couple of good half-seasons, his body of work doesn't compare with Boozer's. We don't think this one is going to win, but it's the right thing to do, and like I said earlier, might give us a good chance to hedge at some point.

Considered Spurs to win the Western Conference at +1100 based on the numbers, but I can't quantify the effect of the Ginobli injury, so we're going to pass. I wrote out the full names of the teams to help frequent reader Phillip, who is annoyed by having to constantly search the internet trying to find out what city the "Hawks" or "Hornets" might be in so he can get his bets in. I think Phillip has a problem....

Throwing Good Money After Bad

One NHL playoffs pick for Friday night:

Philadelphia Flyers +164 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.82 units

Same thinking as Wednesday night. I have these two teams virtually even, so this looks like a good number to me, especially with the public all over Sid the Kid.

NBA playoff picks probably won't be posted until late tonight or early Saturday morning, so check back for picks you can fade.

Friday Baseball, or Why Do People Still Think Derek Jeter Is More Valuable than A-Rod

Getting the baseball out of the way early to clear space for the Hambone NBA Playoff Spectacular. I even taught him to do basic addition and division yesterday so he could really fine-tune his picks. Today's baseball plays, all from Matchbook:

Cleveland Indians +194, .5 units to win .97 units.

This line makes slightly more sense than yesterday's joke of a line, because at least the Indians aren't starting last year's Cy Young winner today. But this still has to be inflated by some irrational belief that the new stadium is gonna spur the Yankees to new heights. I actually like Joba a lot and think he's heading for great things (thus the .5 unit play). But PECOTA, which loves the Yankees to the tune of expecting 99 wins, projects this team to be only the 5th best offense in the AL ... and that's with A-Rod in the mix. He's not playing today, is he? No? Well without him, this is a mediocre offense, even when the Teixiera is raking. Which he's not. I don't care if Derek Jeter cured cancer, wrote the Great American Novel, and impregnated your little sister just by looking in her general direction. Without A-Rod, they're nothing special.


Cincinnati Reds +140, 1 unit to win 1.4 units.

I think we're gonna be fading the Astros against the rest of the NL Central a lot these first two months. Two great pitchers on the hill today. There's no way that Oswalt is so much better than Cueto that it justifies this line, especially when you look at that Astros lineup trying to give him run support.


Detroit Tigers +116, 1 unit to win 1.16 units.

PECOTA says Verlander bounces back and has a decent year this year, and puts up numbers close enough to those of King Felix to create value here, with the Tigers clearly being the better offensive team. Do I buy it? Not sure. But I learned a long time ago that the best way to make money in this game is to avoid overthinking and instead worship at the altar of PECOTA.

I'm Confused

WSEX has the following series odds listed for the first round:

BB 95 4/19 (F) CHARLOTTE VS DENVER (BEST OF SEVEN GAMES) (10:35 pm ET)
Outcome Money Line
CHARLOTTE +200
DENVER -250

I liked Charlotte's matchup advantages in this series at first glance, but then I realized that Charlotte wasn't actually in the playoffs, so I'd have to lean Denver. When did they start doing interconference playoff brackets?

Another thought: Did the Bulls lose that home game vs. Toronto last night on purpose? If they had won, they would be the 6 seed and face Orlando in the first round. But, by losing, they fell to #7 and face the apparently KG-less Celtics. I think Garnett lived in Chicago at some point in high school, so maybe some old friends leaked the injury story to the Bulls, who then took a dive against the Raptors? Probably not, but everybody loves a good conspiracy theory.

And, NO, I am not going to say anything to jinx what's going on in Yankee Stadium right now. Not going to do it.

Bronx Cheers

Today's afternoon play:

Cleveland Indians +202 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2.02 units.

That number is just absurd. Sure, Cliff Lee has struggled so far this year. Sure, the Yankees are the better team. Sure, Sabathia was great last time out. But consider the other side of this equation. A-Rod is still out, and this team is, frankly, pretty bad offensively without him. The only difference between your preception of Cliff Lee and of CC Sabathia is that Lee opened this season with two ugly starts, whereas Sabathia only had one. Lee still has the better K/BB ratio on the year. I just don't see this is a 2/1 type game. +150, maybe, but this number makes absolutely no sense. Indeed, the Indians were +180 as recently as 8 AM.

Usually we stay away from numbers that are this out of whack, because of concern that something we don't know about is going on with the game. But here the reason for the line move seems obvious- legions of Yankee backers who think "dere's no friggin' way Da Yanks are gonna lose dere first game at da new joint!" We love fading people like that.

Wakefield Making Us Look Silly

No-hitter through 7 innings so far. Of course. Three more baseball picks for Wednesday night:

Padres +174, 1 unit to win 1.74 units

Grover says we take +174 with anybody against Oliver Perez. Easy decision.

Reds +128, 1 unit to win 1.28 units

Public loves Looper. We like Owings.

Giants +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units

Kershaw getting a lot of press lately, but he's not better than Cain. Really good number for the dog here.

Good luck everybody.

Tax Day Hockey Playoff Pick & Afternoon Baseball

Trying to get my taxes done, so let me spit these out quickly:

NHL

Flyers +150, 0.5 units to win 0.75 units

I actually think Philadelphia is the slightly better team in this matchup - at worst, they're even. However, Philly doesn't have a Sidney Crosby, so we're the beneficiaries of this juicy line in Game 1. Nice.

MLB

A's +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Public loves the Sox as usual, but the line has gone the other way slightly. Wakefield isn't fooling anybody with the knuckleball anymore - although some of the sample sizes (career at-bats) are small, it's clear that the hitters in Oakland's lineup aren't baffled by the knuckler. A pretty close matchup, we'll take the home dog.

A few more baseball picks emerging for tonight, but I'll have to come back later. The IRS awaits....

NHL Playoff Futures

Hockey playoffs get started Wednesday night. Futures picks for both the Stanley Cup and just the first round:

Chicago Blackhawks to win the Stanley Cup +1600 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 16 units

Lazily and shamelessly, we sat back and let our friend over at Numbers Don't Lie put the math together on this one. I'm not the math whiz that he is, but if the Hawks are 9-1 to win the Cup and Matchbook is paying 16-1, that's incredible value right there and we're on board. Excellent find by the guy who likes numbers.

St. Louis to advance to the second round +196 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 3.92 units

Maybe Vancouver is a little better (maybe), but I don't think they're 2-1 better over a series which is what this line would suggest. Blues have been better on the power play and killing penalties, and are pretty much equal in goal (Canucks' Luongo's save percentage is .919, Blues' Mason's is .916). I'm not counting on Paul Kariya coming back 100% for this series, but anything he can add would just be gravy on top.

Rangers to advance to the second round +190 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.9 units

Does defense win championships? This series will be a good test of that theory, because the Rangers are fantastic defensively - the best penalty killing team in the league and much better in goal than Washington - but no match for the Capitals offensively. This line is +160 or +170 at some books, so I was happy to find the +190 at good ol' WSEX.

Considered Philadelphia to win their first series as well, but I decided to just play the individual games in their series with Pittsburgh. In my completely uneducated hockey opinion, there's virtually no difference between those two teams (except that Philly is the better power play squad), but the recreational bettor has heard about Sidney Crosby a million times on Sportscenter and the public should be overvaluing the Penguins as a result.

Tuesday Night Bases, Quickly

Nothing that has us cutting backflips or anything, but 4 for tonight that we like enough to pick. Lines from Matchbook, all risking 1 unit:

Mariners +102

Carlos Silva is terrible, that's a given. But, Loux projects to be even worse. With the one of the most overrated teams (Angels) facing one of the most underrated, we'll go with the home dog.

Reds +126

A total coin-flip. We'll go with the dog.

Diamondbacks +123

Carpenter getting a lot of love after his great start in his last game. Scherzer is no slouch himself, but is not as widely known. Another home dog for the good guys.

A's +130

The compulsory Dice-K fade. Business as usual.

Hopefully back tonight with some thoughts on the first round of the hockey playoffs.

Monday Night Baseball

One more:

Diamondbacks +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Grover is much higher on the D-Backs this year than I am (I'm still dubious of the offense), but with this game looking like a coin-flip, we'll take the home team as the slgith dog.

NHL Playoff lines are coming out. Considering series bets on the Rangers and Blues, possibly Hurricanes or Flyers. If anybody out there has actually watched a hockey game before (I haven't) and has thoughts, we're happy to listen. Good luck everybody.

Opening Day, Part Deux

Afternoon picks before I leave for Nats Park.

Colorado Rockies +121 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.21 units.

We think big things are in store for Ubaldo Jiminez this year. The Cubs' strong start and win on national TV last night creates value here even though the Rockies very clearly have the better of the pitching matchup. This one's a no-brainer.*

* In this context, no-brainer means there's value, not that the pick is a guaranteed winner. Of course, if you didn't know that already, you are probably better served at the covers.com forums.

Washington Nationals +110 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.1 units.

I'm bringing my giant flash to the stadium, like the one the guy in the BW-3 commerical uses to send the basketball game into overtime at the request of the patrons. I'll get a win today for us, and for the Nats, even if it means I'm banned for life from MLB ballparks.

Actually, I think we're gonna be fading the Phillies a lot this year. Their World Series win and the talent at the front of their order has created the mistaken impression that they are now among the game's elite. They are not. PECOTA forecasts 87 wins and a third-place finish in the East. But as long as people keep thinking that the Phillies are a 95-win team, we'll keep fading them. Even when they're playing the Nats. Ugh.

Sunday Baseball

It's not a pretty card today. We're playing three of the league's bottomfeeders. It is not a card for the weak of heart or stomach.

Florida Marlins +130 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.3 units.

Mets are getting most of the action with Santana on the hill, but the line is moving the other way. The Marlins starter, Josh Johnson, is no slouch either. With the Marlins playing well and at home with a quality starter, this number looks like value.


Washington Nationals +175 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.75 units.

The Nats' losing streak creates the value here. Squares love to bet streaks. This is not a team playing well, and they have the lesser of the two starters here by a bit with Olsen going up against Jurrjens, but this number is too high to pass up for a team that's not as bad as their record suggests. Not good, but not as bad as the record suggests.


Houston Astros +122 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.2 units.

I am not an Astros fan this year, but we like them today with Wandy on the hill against a not particularly good Lohse.

Rolling Along

Just like yesterday, we couldn't agree on anything among the afternoon games, but found two night games we liked.

Brewers +120 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.20 units

The always overrated Zambrano brings his bat-breaking act to Milwaukee. Public all over the Cubs, but expect Braun and Fielder to make the difference in this one.

Giants +159 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.59 units

My memory is that we had success last year backing the young lefty Giants starter, Jonathan Sanchez, but casual bettors have still probably never heard of him. Padres always get a little higher line than they should when Peavy is on the mound, but with no offense and a shaky defense behind him, Peavy just can't do it by himself all the time. Good number for us in this one.

Back tomorrow. Good luck everybody.

Friday Night Baseball

Nothing made the cut for the afternoon (Bluejays was the only one that was close), but we agreed on 2 for tonight:

Twins +140, 1 unit to win 1.40 units

This is not a game I'd be looking forward to watching. Both pitchers are equally awful so getting +140 on either side looks like value to us, and the 66% of wagerliners on the White Sox makes it look even better. Like the old saying goes, "When betting on a shit-eating contest, you might as well go with the underdog." That's a saying, right?

Mariners +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units

After last year's well-known disappointment, the Mariners will likely continue to be underrated for a while, which is good for those of us paying attention. The Griffey signing might not make much difference, but defensive improvements like Gutierrez and Chavez in the outfield are really going to help this team. The CHONE projections on Oakland's starter, Brett Anderson, aren't terrible, but he's not as good as Rowland-Smith (at least, not yet). Another good number to take a stab at.

That's it for today. I tried to talk Grover into Mike Hampton, if only for the humor value, but he wouldn't go for it. When his arm falls completely off of his body in the 2nd inning, you'll know that Grover is the smart one. Considered the Nats also, as always it seems, but ultimately passed. The McDonald kid starting for the Dodgers tonight was an interesting thought as a favorite over suck-ass Jon Garland, but we're going to stick with these two. Good luck everybody.

Thursday Afternoon

I wanted to take a good look at some head-to-head Masters matchups, but the Passover festivities got in the way. So we only have baseball plays for your enjoyment this fine Thursday afternoon. Hambone kindly sent me the lines before he left his desk for the morning, but I don't have the sites that he got them from. I'll guess it's Matchbook, and hopefully he'll be back by lunch to add that.


Seattle Mariners +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units.

Washburn's not an AAO favorite, but we like the Mariners to finish the year about even with the Twins this year- you'll remember that we played the Mariners Over and the Twins Under- and PECOTA suggests that the Mariners clearly have the better of the Washburn-Perkins matchup today. All that and +115 is good enough for us.


Tampa Bay Rays +144, 1 unit to win 144 units.

I'll admit I'm surprised you can get this kind of value on the Rays this year. Is the conventional wisdom that last year was some sort of fluke? It was not. This is an ideal spot to play them, with the Rays' most underrated starter, Matt Garza, going against the Sox' most overrated starter, Dice-K. Dice-K kept burning us last year, seemingly walking two guys and then working his way out of the jam every single inning. He can't keep it up forever, can he? Can he? Please tell me he can't.

Happy Pesach!

Getting these in early to allow all the Jews out there to get their wagers in before the Seders begin. Remember: informed wagering is a mitzvah.

Atlanta Braves +100 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1 unit.

The Braves have the better starter by far (Vasquez over Blanton). I don't see much of a difference on the offensive end. Too much love for the defending champions here.


Pittsburgh Pirates +150 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.5 units.

I've been hearing a lot of positive predictions on the Cardinals over the last week for some reason. I don't buy it for a second. This team looks like one that will finish under .500, so a +150 line against them is value. Unless they're facing the top end of the Nats' rotation, apparently.


Oakland A's -110 (multiple sites), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

I hate betting against the local boy- Adenhart's from Silver Spring in beautiful Montgomery County, MD- and I also worry about the A's struggling against a guy they haven't seen much of. But I don't see anything in his profile that suggests to me that he's anything special. His walk rate was way too high in the minors, and PECOTA is not a fan, to say the least. Eveland's not the second coming of Johan Santana, but there's some value here.

So Far, Not So Good

Afternoon games not looking good (Royals were leading until late, which we should probably get used to saying). This is way too many games for the 3rd day of the season, but I don't have time to try and weed out a couple. For tonight, risking 1 unit on each:

Astros +109

Power and speed in the Houston lineup, they just can't put it together consistently. Line movement makes me think they can tonight.

Mariners -101

And the award for most unlikely to record a strikeout tonight goes to.....Nick Blackburn.

Rockies +143

The difference between Ubaldo and Haren is not as much as the 70%+ of bettors on the D-Backs might think.

A's +102

I don't know who this Cahill person is that's starting for Oakland tonight, so this must be the correct play. Everybody in the world is on the Angels, but the line keeps falling? Very fishy.

Actually, I did pass on one lean, the Nationals, so there's your guaranteed* winner. Probably not going to look at the NBA/NHL again until the playoffs start. Good luck everybody.

*guarantee will not be honored

So Far, So Good

A winning day yesterday, so we should probably quit now. Nope, we're not that smart. Two more for Tuesday afternoon, each risking 1 unit:

Royals +119

Like Meche over Buehrle here. Lineups pretty even going into this one, but the public likes the White Sox. Line moved the opposite way.

Rays +143

Pretty much a coin-flip here, except that we're getting +143 on one side. Nice.

Not much time to go into more detail today. Back later with any games for tonights.

It Begins - Monday Afternoon Baseball

Finally. Two for the 4 PM Eastern hour, lines from Matchbook, risking 1 unit on each:

Nationals +154

Pirates +172

Very busy today, but if I can find some time later, I might come back and add in some explanation for those. Good luck everybody.

Passing Saturday

Lean to Michigan State and UNC Under, but not going to officially pick either of those. Good luck to everybody who's getting involved.

Baseball Win Total Bets

It's about damn time, right?

OK, for some reason they won't let me take a sick day to do these, so the conversation will be relatively brief. Methodology- I looked at PECOTA first to come up with some possibilities, and then looked at the CHONE and Diamond Mind numbers for a second and third opinion. I believe every pick here is one that all three projection systems agree on. By the way, the Diamond Mind projections incorporate the PECOTA and CHONE numbers and run them with several others, including CAIRO and Hardball Times. If you want to look for yourself at projections but are pressed for time and don't have a particular love for one system (like I do with PECOTA), that is a great place to look.

One other thing- I can't say if the juice numbers are accurate because my work firewall blocks gambling sites. These numbers are from a few days ago, which is the last time I had a chance to look at home. I've asked Hambone to check this afternoon and update the numbers if necessary. Obviously if the juice is significantly different then what I post here, you shouldn't play it. Use your best judgement.

Atlanta Braves Over 83.5 -115 (BetUS), 3.45 Units to win 3 units.

Amazingly consistent projections from the three systems. CHONE says 86, Diamond Mind 86.7, and PECOTA 87. I assume it's the Braves' record last year that's holding the lines back, because it's not like this is a franchise with a tradition of losing. Ownership has shown a willingness to make a move and spend some dough if they've got a shot at the playoffs, which I suspect they do. The pitching staff is approaching AARP eligibility, but they've got young talent like Campillo and Jurrjens to back it up if the injury bug or Alzheimer's strikes guys like Lowe, Glavine and Vasquez.


Baltimore Orioles Over 73.5 +110 (Greek), 2 units to win 2.2 units.

I'm somewhat iffy on this one. All three projection services are barely above this number. I only like it because of the +110 number I saw for it last time I checked the Greek. A positive number plus all three services projecting 74-75 wins is value, plain and simple. But if you can't get the +110 any more, stay away from this one. The fan base is gonna be screaming for a Wieters callup by the end of the month, which certainly will help matters.


Chicago White Sox Under 78.5 -120 (WSEX), 2.4 units to win 2 units.

Wow, these guys are old. Old old old. My grandfather used to sit me on his lap and tell me stories about watching Jose Contreras pitch to the Babe. Jim Thome wears an onion on his belt. He can't get the white ones, on account of the war, so he has to wear the big yellow ones. Last week Jermaine Dye told at me and my friends to get the hell off his lawn. You get the picture. All three projections are under this number. PECOTA is the highest, at 76.


Florida Marlins Under 76.5 -130 (WSEX), 3.9 units to win 3 units.

I don't have a lot to add here. Florida has a lot of young, highly-touted prospects like Maybin and Volstead. But the team's not quite ready for prime time yet. The projections have them between 71 and 72.5. Of course, it's possible that their legendary raucous home crowds will lift them to a couple extra wins, so be wary of that.


Seattle Mariners Over 72.5 -125 (Greek), 3.75 units to win 3 units.

See how we're switching it up on them? The books go high on the Mariners in 2008, so we go low! And then when they go low, we go high! We're coming at them like a spider monkey. They'll never know what hit 'em.

In case you prefer a little more analysis before you put your hard-earned money down, PECOTA's got them at 77, CHONE at 78, and Diamond Mind at 77.8. Just imagine how this team would look with Adam Jones in the outfield, George Sherrill in the bullpen, and Chris Tillman waiting in the wings to spearhead the rotation.

I'm sorry, Seattle. That was mean. Bill Bavasi is gone. He won't ever haunt your nightmares again. I promise.


Toronto Blue Jays Under 79.5 -140 (WSEX), 2.8 units to win 2 units.

In keeping with Canadian tradition, this discussion will be devoid of anything interesting or colorful. PECOTA says 76, CHONE says 75, Diamond Mind says 75.6. the win total was 80.5 elsewhere, which looks really good, but the line was -190 or thereabouts, which is just too damn expensive.


And now we get to the two big ones. They're both unders. I'm quite the Negative Nancy this year ...


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Under 89.5 -130 (BetUS), 5.2 units to win 4 units.

CHONE and Diamond Mind have them in the 85 range. If PECOTA was the same this would be a 2 unit play. But PECOTA says 81. And PECOTA is my sun and my moon. I follow Nate Silver around with a copy of Excel and try to get him to sign it. This line might have moved with the news about Lackey getting increasingly negative, so make sure you're still getting decent value here before putting your entire tax refund on it like I did.

Minnesota Twins Under 83.5 -105 (BetUS), 5.25 units to win 5 units.

This one hurts, because the Minnesota Twins are everyone's Little Team That Could. The numbers guys usually love them, because their front office is well-run and incredibly efficient with their budget. And how can you root against a team that asked The Hold Steady to record a version of Take Me Out to the Ball Game for them? Unfortunately, the numbers just don't add up this year. CHONE and Diamond Mind say 79. PECOTA is even less generous, pegging the Twins for 76 wins. And making matters worse, Twins fans are gonna have to watch Matt Wieters replace Joe Mauer as the best young catcher in the history of anything ever. Looks like a sad summer in Minneapolis, which sucks because I'm guessing their winters aren't much fun either.

Finally, I'm not making any of these official plays, but as a public service to you, here are the other teams on which all three projections are on the same side as the win total lines by more than one game. For the most part, I didn't play them because there wasn't enough difference between the projections and the lines or because the juice was too high or a combination thereof. All of them are decent plays, and if I'm feeling saucy or if I find any number better than what I found last time I looked, I will play them and post them here later this weekend:

Houston Astros Under 74.5, Tampa Bay Rays Over 87.5, Washington Nationals Over 71.5.

Wednesday Night Basketball

A couple of guesses for tonight:

College Basketball

UTEP -9 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

This is just too goofy to pass up. Game #2 in the CBI best-2-out-of-3 finals series. Oregon State won by 6 Monday night at home, and now UTEP is favored to win by nearly double-digits in El Paso? Hilarious.

NBA

Bucks +6.5 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units

The books seem to think the Redd-less Bucks can hang close with the Lakers tonight, but the people aren't buying it. Maybe it's a revenge thing for losing Kareem.

Good luck everybody.

Disrespecting Wilt

What a crock of shit. ESPN has an article today on Dwight Howard becoming the youngest player to reach 5,000 rebounds after last night's game. Yes, he is younger at 23 yrs old than Wilt was when he got number 5,000 (Wilt was 25), but not once in the AP/ESPN article does the author mention that it took Howard MORE THAN FOUR YEARS to accomplish what only took Wilt a little over TWO YEARS to accomplish. You see, back in Wilt's day, they had this thing called college that players would go to before the NBA. Sounds crazy, I know. Wilt didn't start playing in the NBA until he was 23, and got to 5,000 at age 25. Dwight played his first game at age 19, and didn't get to 5,000 until last night, at the age of 23. Doesn't that have to be mentioned in the article somewhere? You know, that Chamberlain was twice as dominant as Howard? The articles I've seen today ("Howard smashes Wilt's record," etc.) leave the impression that Howard has somehow been better than Wilt because he did something younger. It's the same thing with Kobe and Lebron - everytime they become the "youngest" to do something, nobody mentions the fact that they skipped college and went pro straight out of high school. A completely meaningless collection of "records"

OK, I feel better now. And with baseball still several days away and NBA/NHL in the final games on the regular season, where it's hard to guess what the motivations of some of the teams might be, at least there's something posted on here this week.

Sunday Afternoon NBA

Screw the NCAA tournament. Dug a big hole the first weekend and then started forcing plays to try and fix the damage. Rookie mistake which I should not be making after all these years. So, no more college plays unless it's solid, and don't like either of the games today. One early game in the NBA:

Hawks +3.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Public is predictably all over the Lake Show, but the Hawks have enough talent to win this game at home. Line move back from -4 seals the deal.

Can't wait for baseball season to start.......

Friday Night Underdogs

After the 7th gimme Purdue layup rolled off the rim last night, I changed the channel. Very painful. On to Friday:

College Basketball

Arizona +9 +105, 2 units to win 2.1 units

No significant public consensus here, just a feeling that Arizona is getting a couple of extra points here because of the constant refrain you hear on ESPN of "they barely got into the tournament in the first place" and such. Louisville has not dominated its first two opponents (yes, they won by 20 vs. Morehead State, but only led by 2 at the half), and their free throw shooting has been horrendous (seriously, 50% combined in the first 2 games - I know 10-year-olds who can make half of them). At the very least, the future pros on the Wildcat roster have incentive to play hard and boost their draft stock. Chase "The Great White Hype" Budinger can't afford to fall any further, can he?

Syracuse +1 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units

File this under if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I haven't been on the same side as the Cuse much this season, but they have often been overrated (or, at least, I thought so). Tonight, as the lesser seed and slight underdog, the tables may have turned to some degree. The teams that have had success against the Orange's 2-3 zone this year, not surprisingly, have been teams (Louisville, Villanova, Georgetown) who have several capable 3-point shooters on the roster. Oklahoma is not such a team. With nobody hitting from deep, the zone doesn't get stretched out, and Blake Griffin is going to be double and triple teamed all night. If it comes down to free throws at the end, Syracuse will need to make sure to keep the ball out of the hands of Onuaku and Jackson, but everybody else is solid.

NBA

Hawks +1 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Public likes the defending champs, even with KG still playing limited minutes, but the line isn't budging. After failing to beat the Magic, the Celtics may be on cruise control the rest of the regular season, but after last season's playoff series loss, this game probably still means something to the Hawks. We'll take the home dog.

Good luck everybody.

Thursday Sweet 16

Holy crap, I think we made money on hoops picks last night. Can't remember the last time that happened. Just one for tonight:

Purdue +6.5 +103, 2 units to win 2.06 units

If this loses by 7, I'll be a little upset, but the half-point calculator says that this line is superior to +7 -108 (the other option at Matchbook), so we're going this way. I haven't heard anybody saying much about Purdue this week, after they barely squeaked by their opponents, but everybody on the ESPN was raving about how UConn dominated their first 2 opponents. Of course, nobody takes the time to discuss how Purdue's opponents were much better than the teams that UConn got to face. Pomeroy's predictions haven't fared so well up to this point (I know, small sample size), but it's still a useful tool for comparing teams statistically, and Pomeroy's system says that UConn wins this game by only 5. That's even better support for Purdue than it looks, as pointed out to me in an e-mail from Grover, when you consider that Pomeroy's ratings for UConn include all of the games that Dyson played, and he won't be there tonight, and on the flipside, Purdue's ratings include all of the games when Hummel was out with an injury but he will be playing tonight. So, the numbers may be overrating UConn and underrating Purdue tonight, which sounds good when you've got the underdog. We can't quantify what the effect might be of all the UConn sanction talk might be, but it's possible that this could serve as a further distraction. Go Boilermakers.

I Picked Every Game With 103 Juice

OK, not really, this is just a weird coincidence. Wednesday's hoops:

NBA

Hawks -6.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Clippers +6.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 units

College Basketball

San Diego State -3.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Oregon State +3 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Kept it short so I didn't push the baseball post too far down. Good luck.

Damn You, FiveThirtyEight.Com!

This was so much easier last year, when nobody except baseball nerds and savvy gamblers knew the name Nate Silver. Now, thanks to his election predictions (and, to be fair, the fortunes he made us all on the Rays last year) he's a media sensation. And as a result, the books appear to be wise to the predictive power of PECOTA. Here's how you can tell that the books are on to us: the Win Total Over/Under on the Royals this year is 76.5.

Anyway, the pickings are slim this year. In the space below I've cut and pasted my email to Hambone from Monday with my initial MLB Win Total leans. I expect to post final picks some time next week, after discussion and opportunity to look at the projections of CHONE and other models. One thought I've had is to maybe make a lot of smaller plays on several of these teams, as opposed to last year's massive cash dump on a couple obvious plays. Your input is welcome and encouraged in the comments.

Baltimore Orioles Over 73.5 +110 (The Greek): it's even money elsewhere, PECOTA projects 77 wins and one of the best offenses in baseball, which makes sense when you consider their personnel. If they find some pitching they might get to .500.

Chi White Sox Under 79.5 -170 (BetUS), Under 78.5 -120 (WSEX): Iffy here because PECOTA always sells the Sox short because they're so old- projects 74 wins in 2009. It expects everyone to get injured, usually one or two of the senior citizens defies the odds.

Colorado Rockies Under 77.5 -125 (BetUS): PECOTA says 72. I like this one. If you look at the projects behind the 72 wins, none of them look overly pessimistic and some even look a little optimistic.

Detroit Tigers Over 82.5 +105 (BetUS): PECOTA says 85. PECOTA and +105 = value.

Florida Marlins Under 76.5 -130 (WSEX): Good WSEX line-shopping value here, it's -135 and -140 at the other two sites. PECOTA says 70 wins. PECOTA also expects Volstad and Maybin to kinda suck, which concerns me, but what do I know?

Houston Astros Under 74.5 -135 (The Greek): Nope, I'm not gonna spout an overused movie quote here. Anyway, value here with BetUS at -150. PECOTA projects 68 wins. This one is the rare play that goes in the "Definite" pile.

LAAofA Under 89.5 -130 (BetUS): eh. PECOTA says 83. It's a definite play without the juice, with the juice I'm less enthused.

L.A. Dodgers Over 82.5 -200 (BetUS) or Over 83.5 -150 (WSEX): I guess the books dealt with the Manny uncertainty differently, maybe WSEX gave them an extra game to cushion against his likely signing back in February. I like the WSEX line a lot better, I'll check it in the line comparison tool to make sure but it seems like a no-brainer. PECOTA says 91 with Manny on board. Giggity giggity.

Mil Brewers Over 80.5 -125 (WSEX): Good value again at WSEX, with the price at -140 and -145 elsewhere. It pays to line-shop. PECOTA says 85. I'm concerned about them getting too far behind the Cubs and getting cheap at the trading deadline and moving Prince Fielder or something, but I think they'll stay close.

Minnesota Twins Under 83.5 -105 (BetUS): PECOTA says 76. Book it. Easy as that.

Tampa Bay Rays Over 88 -150 (WSEX): Dare we tempt fate again? The team that made Nate Silver famous is projected to 95 wins this year. That's a lot of wins.

Toronto Blue Jays Under 79.5 -140 (WSEX): It's Under 80.5 -190 elsewhere, but this looks better to me. PECOTA says 73. If the Rays are gonna win 95, the Os are gonna win 77, and the Sox and Yanks are the Sox and Yanks, this team is in deep trouble.

Washington Nationals Over 71.5 -125 (WSEX): More WSEX value, with the price at -130 and -135 elsewhere. PECOTA says 76. Not the best value here, but if there's any value, I'm gonna play it, if only as a way to keep myself sane as I pay thousands for season tickets and spend countless hours at the ballpark to watch an also-ran for the fifth consecutive summer. It's exhausting.

More on Pomeroy, My Favorite Subject

My usefulness around here during February and March is limited to asking stupid questions about the usefulness of everyone's favorite predictive tool for college basketball, the Pomeroy Ratings.

In today's episode, I ask, once again, whether Pomeroy undervalues the elite teams. I've previously asked whether the nation's best teams are undervalued by his efficiency statistics because those teams tend to play a lot of garbage time, which does not reflect their true quality but the data nevertheless goes into the Pomeroy numbers. As an example, I used the Duke beatdown of Maryland in February, when the Blue Devils ran out to a 40 point lead about 2/3rds of the way through the game and then coasted home to a final margin that was about equal to that. The teams at the top of the traditional rankings do this on a regular basis, yet those waning minutes are considered by Pomeroy to be just as important as the waning minutes in a close game. Today I'll take a new look at whether this might lead to a slight undervaluation of the elite teams as compared to the rest of the country.

The Basketball Prospectus predictions for 2008 and 2009 as compared to the seeds' actual performance, suggests that there may be some truth to this. Let's look first at the success of the top seeds in advancing to the Sweet 16. Since the tournament switched to the 64-team format in 1985 there have been exactly 100 top seeds. How convenient for us! Of those top seeds, 88 have advanced to the Sweet 16, for a ... wait for it ... 88% success rate. However, of the eight pre-tournament regional bracket predictions issued by Basketball Prospectus, only one #1 seed was given a better than 88% chance of advancing to the second round: Kansas in 2008, which was bestowed with a 93.6% chance of advancing, mostly because they were the Pomeroy overall #1 and their 8/9 draw was ridiculously weak according to the Pomeroy ratings. The other seven #1 seeds? UNC 2008 got a 70.99% chance of advancing, Memphis 2008: 84.3%, UCLA 2008: 77.86. Moving on to 2009, Pitt was given a 72.07% chance of advancing, Louisville got a 79.85%, UConn got a 70.35% shot, and UNC got a 79.61%.

We know that all 8 of these teams advanced, but that's not what's important. What is important is that these eight predictions average out to only a 78.58% chance of advancing, almost 10% lower than the historical data would suggest. So, either: (1) Basketball Prospectus thought the 2008 and 2009 #1 seeds teams were weaker than the average crop of #1 seeds historically; (2) the 2008-2009 #1 seeds were extraordinarily unlucky in their 8/9 draws, or (3) Basketball Prospectus and Pomeroy are undervaluing the top seeds.

Running the data with final four likelihood results in similar findings. 43 of 96 #1seeds have made the final four over the years, for a 44.79% chance of Final Four advancement historically. The BP/Pomeroy numbers are far more pessimistic for the 2008 and 2009 teams, averaging out to a 37.68% even with the 2008 Kansas squad getting an amazing 61% chance of advancing.

Does this mean anything? It's hard to say. The sample size of 8 #1 seeds is small, to the point where a single Pomeroy divergence from conventional wisdom (like Memphis, the #1 Pomeroy team in 2009, being a 2 seed that is twice as likely as UConn to advance to the Final Four) impacts the data. Still, I think there's enough disparity between history and the projections to at least ask some questions.

Of course, it is also worth noting that the one team given a likelihood of advancement to the Sweet 16 and Final 4 greater than historical percentages for #1 seeds was the 2008 Kansas team, the only one of these eight that has a national title under its belt as of this writing. That certainly had some value for the folks who read this blog regularly.

For the record, it seems that Pomeroy is well aware that the data has some minor shortcomings- for example, with respect to Gonzaga's amazingly high projections in the 2009 South Region and their impact on UNC's percentages, they wrote the following:

"Second on the list of apparent log5 absurdities [the Memphis numbers were the first] is the chance of Gonzaga winning the title. With the Zags' last marquee game being a humiliating loss in Spokane to Memphis, there's some well-founded skepticism that their chances of escaping the South region could approach a healthy UNC's chances."

I guess that the one thing we can take from this is that the rankings are not gospel, but are simply a useful predictive tool. I imagine even Pomeroy would agree with that sentiment.

Tune in later this week, when the coming baseball season finally gives me something to write about besides bizarre nitpicky breakdowns of predictive models.

These Teams Aren't In My NCAA Bracket

Two more college basketball losers for Monday night:

Oakland +3 -103

Vermont +1 -109

Each to win 1 unit.

Sunday Night - Just NBA Losers

A couple from the pro game for tonight:

Nets +6 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Kings +4.5 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

A couple of home dogs to stoke my frustration this evening. I'm predicting outcomes like the Bulls last night - tied at the end of the 3rd quarter and then play terribly in the 4th. Good times.

Sunday Afternoon

Gotta go to the office today, so getting these in quickly:

College Basketball

Arizona State +2 +107, 2 units to win 2.14 units

Pendergraph can set up camp down low against the Orange zone, and the Sun Devils have 3-pt bombers who can take advantage from the perimeter. I wonder if the folks at N.C. State still think Herb Sendek is too boring?

Oklahoma State +8 +109, 2 units to win 2.18 units

Cowboys don't have a lot of size, but neither does Pitt despite their good rebounding numbers. OK State is going to run and drive, which gives them a good chance of getting Blair in foul trouble, which has hurt Pitt in other games this season.

NBA

Rockets +3.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Line looks a little short for a San Antonio home game. Rockets playing well without T-Mac and with Manu still injured, the Spurs are just Duncan, Parker, and a bunch of scrubs and has-beens.

Back later if I have time to give y'all some more fades.

Saturday Evening Post

Getting killed in the tourney so far, so just a couple more tonight:

College Basketball

LSU +12.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Normally, the line move would have scared me off, but we're going with the theory that the line move is more a result of Lawson's status changing from game-time decision to probable, rather than a sign that the professional gamblers are pounding the Heels. I was trying to think of ACC teams that might be similar to LSU (several long, athletic players between 6-6 & 6-8) and I came up with FSU, Wake, and BC, all of whom gave the Tar Heels fits this year. Not predicting the outright upset, because I think my head would explode if I had to listen to Roy Williams afterwards explaining how he didn't really care about winning the tournament anyway.

NBA

Bulls +3.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

This one is horrendous. Fugly. Awful. Go Bulls.

Good luck everybody.

Round 2, Day 1

Well, the Mormons are really letting us down so far. One pick so far for today:

Memphis -9.5 -112, 2.24 units to win 2 units

No public consensus here, but we really like this one anyway. I think Memphis' close game with Northridge in the first round gives us good value here today (on top of all the Conference USA bashing that's been going on the past week or two) against a Maryland team that is just not very good. One good player (Vasquez) surrounded by a bunch of role players. If that one player was a dominant player, especially a big man, then maybe we'd be concerned, but Vasquez isn't going to be enough to do it again today. The Terps have gone as far as they can go, and farther than they should have gone in the first place. Luck runs out today in a blowout. Line just keeps climbing.

The End of the First Round

OK, a couple more, then on to tomorrow:

Utah -1.5 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units

Holy crap, a favorite. In our defense, Utah did open as the underdog but the books have been steadily moving the line until Utah is now the favorite, and it's not because a lot of recreational bettors are on the Utes or anything. I don't know if there has ever been a #12 seed (they always win! always!) that has been picked in more brackets than Arizona this year. Nobody seems to mind that the only reason they are even in is because the committee didn't want to end their streak if it was even close. Arizona is a very shallow team, and rely heavily on Hill, Budinger, and Wise to do all of the scoring. Because they can't let any of those guys (especially Hill) get into foul trouble, we'll probably see a lot of zone defense, which allows Utah's 3-point snipers (Borha, Green) room to shoot. No matter what defense Arizona plays, they are terrible on that end of the court - #135 nationally by Pomeroy's stats. Utah is #20. Arizona only won two games (Oregon, Oregon St.) away from home all season. TWO! Etc, etc, etc.

Wisconsin +2.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Grover is always wary of Wisconsin because the stats guys always seem to have them rated higher than they end up performing. But, even looking at these teams with that caveat, this matchup looks virtually even to me. And the books aren't willing to let the line go any higher than 2.5 or 3 on FSU even though they are getting 3 bets on FSU for every Wisconsin bet that comes in. Pomeroy has Wisconsin winning this game by 1, and we'll take the points in a toss-up and give the books credit for knowing something here.

I think I'll take a night off from getting killed in the NBA and go find a bar to watch the college games. Good night everybody.

Friday Afternoon Brackets

Nice job, BYU. Good effort. OK, moving on. Just found time to get to a computer, so getting these in as quickly as possible:

Stephen F. Austin +11.5 +101, 2 units to win 2.02 units

With all the press that Syracuse has gotten lately, shouldn't this line be moving toward 20, instead of toward 10? Really, this line is fishy as hell. Big support for the Cuse as expected, but that line is going the other way. Pomeroy has Austin ranked as the #13 defensive team in the country (defensive efficiency). Not in their conference, not among mid-majors, in the country! I would have never guessed. That is insanely good for team in the Southland Conference. If the Orange showboaters decide, as usual, that they would rather go for the highlight reel plays instead of the smart plays, it's going to be a long day for them.

Cornell +12.5 -108, 2.16 units to win 2 units

Public big on Mizzou, but line not going that way today. Cornell has everything you want in an underdog trying to get the cover. They can score, averaging 74 points per game, and they can shoot (48% FG%, 42% 3pt%, 73% FT%). They even have decent size for an Ivy school, and Jeff Foote is Exhibit A. Foote is 7-0 and averages 12 points and 7 rebounds per game, so he's not just a big stiff. Because they have a couple of big bodies, they haven't lost before the game even starts, like Chattanooga vs. UConn yesterday, due to matchup problems. Go Big Red.

Back later with tonight's picks.

Knights Who Say NIT!

Just one play from the NIT tonight:

Rhode Island +1 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Maybe all the bracket fun is distracting the public from Cornley's injury?

Back later tonight or early Friday morning. Good luck everybody.

Lords Of The Dance

The Big Dance starts Thursday, and we're playing 3 games for opening day.

BYU -2.5 -110, 2.2 units to win 2 units

The Mountain West probably sounds like a league of chumps to the general public, but there were several good/decent teams in that conference this year - BYU, Utah, San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming. So, I don't think BYU's statistical edge in virtually every important category (FG%, FG% allowed, 3pt% & allowed, FT%, assist/turnover ratios, etc.) should be disregarded. A&M rebounds a little better, but that's about it. BYU better offensively and especially defensively. Pomeroy has them winning by 6 points, Sagarin by 4. This is not one of our usual anti-public plays, as the consensus only slightly favors Texas A & M (consensus couldn't be too high as A&M is not only the underdog but also the lower seed), but the line has already moved from -2 to -2.5 as of Wednesday.

Minnesota +4 +101, 2 units to win 2.02 units

The Big Ten is also a conference that has been getting bashed in the media for underperforming, but Pomeroy has that conference ranked 5th overall which is only 1 worse than the Big 12 (home of Minnesota's opponent, Texas). Texas better offensively, while the Gophers have the edge on D. Big public support for Texas (71% at wagerline), but the line has either held steady at 4.5 or dropped to 4 at some books (like Matchbook, where we got our line). Pomeroy has Texas by 1, and Sagarin has it even closer than that. Sold.

American +16.5 +108, 2 units to win 2.16 units

Grover likes it. Pomeroy likes it. Sagarin likes it. And I've just heard the 34th ESPN analyst this week suggest that Villanova has a free pass to the Sweet 16 because they get to play in Philadelphia. The love for Nova is really getting out of control, but the line has been dropping this week rather than going higher. American shoots pretty well, and if they can hit a decent percentage today, they should be able to stay within this big number.

I went out to a bar tonight instead of staying home and typing the explanations for these. Hopefully, I'll wake up early enough tomorrow to get a few sentences in about each of these, but we wanted to go ahead and lock in the lines now since all of them appear to have moved a little already.

*Explanations added Thursday morning. Good luck everybody.

The Big Fun Starts Tomorrow

But, there are still a few games that we like for Wednesday night:

NBA

Bucks +5.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

I can't understand how the Bucks have won any games at all since losing Redd (and Bogut, to a lesser extent), but they haven't been nearly as dreadful as I thought they would be. The books are taking a stand with Milwaukee despite heavy support for the Magic. Perhaps the books are expecting a letdown in effort from Orlando after last night's big game against Lebron, and since they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight (played Utah Sunday).

College Basketball

Jacksonville +14.5 +100, 1 unit ot win 1 unit

From the NIT. I don't know much about Jacksonville, but I know these two things:

1. Despite huge public betting on the Gators, the books are not budging that line an inch so far.

2. None of the following teams were able to beat Jacksonville by 15 points this season: Baylor, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Georgetown, Florida State.

Vermont +5.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

From the CBI, whatever the hell that is. Another team I know almost nothing about because they didn't play a lot of lined games this year. From looking at their schedule, they took George Mason and Maryland to overtime, and defeated Delaware and Colorado. With the books dropping the line a full point over the course of the day, that's good enough for me.

Hoping to get back later tonight to post Thursday's NCAA tournament picks. Good luck everybody.

The AAO Guide to a Winning Bracket

350 or so days a year, our audience is the serious, or at least regular, sports bettor. The kind of person who's looking for an edge, the kind of person who scoffs when some asks them to explain what the -180 and +150 numbers mean on the big fancy boards in Vegas. However, for two events a year the sports betting world opens up to pretty much everyone. One of those events is the Super Bowl. We blew that one, only making one play and failing to get some "fun" prop bet tips up on the blog. Sorry. We're gonna make it up to you on the other event, March Madness.

Today's post is a guide to your office pool. We're not making any picks here, although we will discuss a few teams in the course of the discussion. Instead, we'll give you some rules and guidelines for your office pool. And so without further ado ...

Rule #1, The Golden Rule: Know the Scoring System

Most people know this already, but it can't be emphasized enough. Your picks in a bracket that rewards all winning picks the same way should be completely different from a bracket that gives you double points for upsets, and those should be completely different from those that multiply the points in each round by the team's seed. Obviously, a bracket that doesn't give you any bonus for upsets should have a good deal of chalk, with one general exception that we'll get to in Rule #2.

Let's start with the "straight" pools, the ones that give you no bonus for upsets. According to this incredibly handy guide produced by the Washington Post, since the tournament expanded in 1985, #1 seeds have a 1.000 winning percentage in Round 1, an .875 winning percentage in Round 2, and most surprisingly to me, an .821 winning percentage in the Sweet 16- I was thinking it would be far lower, maybe in the .700 to .750 range. So if you are in a small pool with no upset bonuses, in the past it has paid to go with the #1 seeds to the Elite Eight. Of course, there are some ways to evaluate the best picks that are far better and more accurate than seeds. We'll get to that in Rule #3. And history only tells us so much, as we'll discuss in Rule #4. This is what we call "foreshadowing." But generally speaking, taking favorites for the most part is a solid strategy in these types of pools.

What about those that give you double value for certain upsets? There your best bet, at least for Round 1, is to go to the Vegas money lines. If the potential upset pick is +200 or better on the money line, they're generally a value play for double points. If you're in a larger pool (again, we'll get to that later), you might want to go as high as +250 or more if there's something else you like about the team. Beyond Round 1, your best bet is probably to use the odds for advancement found at basketballprospectus.com. They've got their essential previews up for the East and Midwest today, look for the South and West tomorrow. These previews,while not perfect, are the best tool you'll find to gain an edge. We'll discuss this more in Rule #3.

And for those pools that multiply the total points by the seed? Upsets are the way to go here, but not overwhelmingly so. Generally speaking, if you look at the data from this useful Washington Post link, the seed multiplication matched up pretty closely with the likelihod of advancement. For example, #1 seeds are twice as likely to advance to the Final Four as #2 seeds (42 vs 21 since 1985), a little better than three times as likely to advance as a #3 (42 vs. 12), and a little better than four times as likely as a #4 (42 vs 9). Beyond that, the data at the Final Four level becomes insignificant. Thankfully, Basketball Prospectus once again provides a guide to figure out whether there's value in the higher seeds. By way of example, let's look at the South and Midwest, the two previews available already. The BP numbers suggest that in a multiplier pool, you would be out of your mind to pick the #1 seed to advance to the Final Four. UCLA and Duke provide far better value, when you multiply their odds of advancing to the final four by their higher seeds. The other lower seeds provide value that is generally slightly less than Pitt's value here. Turning to the Midwest, you can see that only Pomeroy favorite West Virginia provides better value than the top seeded Cardinals. So if you like our reasoning with these "multiplier" pools, but can't shake the need to pick some chalk, this is the place to take a #1. I can tell you before they come out that UNC and UConn will not provide similar value in this sort of pool.


Rule #2- Know the Size of Your Pool

Our discussion here will be much briefer. The rule is simple- the smaller the pool, the more favorites you can take. In a fifteen person pool, you can win by simply hitting on two or three of the final four like everyone else, being one of the three or four people to pick the champion correctly, and using basic tools like the Pomeroy numbers and the Vegas money lines to find a couple sneaky "upsets" that people who think every 8 is better than the 9 and every 7 is better than a 10 will miss. In a larger pool, you are far more likely to win if, say, you are the only person who correctly has UCLA coming out of the East than you are if you are one of the 75% of people who have Pitt coming out of the East. In a huge pool, picking Pitt gets you virtually nowhere relative to the field; picking UCLA gets you everywhere ... if you think UCLA have more than a snowball's chance, they are one of many 3 of higher seeds that is worth a shot in those 100+ person pools. For more guidance, the folks at BP should give you some help. In these large pools, it probably serves you well to consider the conventional wisdom, as espoused by the talking heads on ESPN and the "experts" at your local paper. If what these people say about a particular team is at odds with what Pomeroy, Sagarin and others have to say, that might be a good way to pick up some points relative to what the masses will do. Which brings us to Rule #3 ...

Rule #3: The Statisticians and Bookies Are All Smarter Than the NCAA Committee, Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps and Andy Katz Put Together

This one's also really simple. When you fill out your bracket, keep a close eye on teams that are "underdogs" in the brackets but are the better team according to Pomeroy, Sagarin, and the books. Those are the best place to figure out who is more likely to win. If one of them disagrees with the seeds, it's a great place to get the odds in your favor to pick up points on Joe Chalklover, my made-up pool participant who always loves the lower numbered seeds except for his one "upset pick" that he saw mentioned in the local paper yesterday. In my mind, Joe wears short sleeve dress shirts with ties, keeps his ID badge prominently displayed, and has dandruff.

Some experts should be drowned out even more than others, or even faded. Digger Phelps is a great example. His pick of a #1 seed and a #4 seed to meet in the Elite 8 this year is becoming legend. UNC fans all fondly remember 2005, when Digger loudly and repeatedly informed anyone who would listen that UNC would never win the title because UConn had blocked 16 Tarheel shots in a February game, failing every time to mention that UNC had nevertheless won the game, played in Hartford. The lesson here: Digger should be ignored at all costs. You might get dumber by osmosis if you listen to him.

Rule #4: History Means Almost Nothing

You have no doubt heard, or will hear, most of the following things in the runup to the tournament, and probably some other ones about tournament history as well:

- A 12 always beats a 5!
- Duke used to be great, but they've been upset in the tournament the last four years running.
- Gonzaga always gets a lot of hype and then disappoints in the tournament.
- The elite programs always "step up" at tournament time
- Experience is key- seniors win championships.

And so on.

It is important to always remember that when the teams take the floor, it's just a bunch of guys and their coaching staff trying to score more points than the other bunch of guys and their coaching staff. So what about our historical facts above? All true, and all irrelevant:

- A 12 always beats a 5 because there are four 5-12 games every year, and the 5 seeds aren't that much better than the 12 seeds. This year is a great example. 12th seeded Wisconsin is actually better than 5th seeded Florida State according to Pomeroy (although as we've discussed here on other occasions, the Pomeroy system always overrates Wisconsin substantially). The Utah-Arizona game is a pick 'em according to the books. And so on. Again, don't consider the seeds, consider the teams. No need to force a 12 vs 5 upset because "one always happens" if you don't like any of them after reading the other Rules here- although this year, there are several to like.

- Duke has been pathetic in the tournament lately. Embarrassing. Awful. Frankly, they are a disgrace to the university and the alumni they represent, and the University should probably just admit the basketball team's uselessness and move on to things the school actually excels at, like golf and fashion and musicals and whathaveyou. However, we don't see what the miserable peformances of chokers like JJ Redick and DeMarcus Nelson have to do with how Kyle Singler and Eliot Williams will do this year.

(N.B.: the tone of the above paragraph may have been influenced by the writer's three years in Chapel Hill)

- Same principle applies to Gonzaga. Adam Morrison's failings in the past do not affect how this year's team will do. This year's team is good, and they deserve your attention. If you, like Digger in 2005, are not a UNC believer this year, Gonzaga is worth considering as an upset pick in the Sweet Sixteen. Consider the other Rules here before deciding if you think it's worthwhile to take a chance on the Zags in 2009. Just don't let their past performances influence your thinking.

- In 2006, George Mason beat UConn in the Elite Eight, surviving an overtime that 99% of the viewing populations assumed would just crush the mid-major Patriots. In 2007 an Ohio State team reached its first Final Four in eight years (more than that if you abide by the sanctions that removed the visit from the records). In 2008, Memphis reached only it's second Final Four ever (I know, I was surprised too!). Sure, the elite teams make the final four all the time, but it's because of the talent underneath the jerseys, not the names on the front of the jerseys.

- Winning teams almost always have seniors in the rotation because 95% (wild guess) of Division I teams have seniors in the rotation. You know why? Because on average, 22 year olds are better at basketball than 19 year olds. That doesn't mean young teams with great talent should be written off. Ask Carmelo Anthony how important experience is to winning a championship.


Do you have your own thoughts, hints, systems, etc. for office bracket pools? Feel free to share them with us in the comments.