Tonight in the NBA:
Cavaliers +10 -104 (Matchbook), 0.52 units to win 0.50
All four of the games between these two teams have been relatively close this season. In the only game after the big Cleveland trade, Boston won by five points at home, and it wouldn't surprising to see a similar margin tonight. The Artist Formerly Known as Big Ben still has enough in the tank to hold KG under 20 points, and I give the advantage at the other frontcourt positions to the Cavs (Lebron over Pierce, Big Z over Perkins). I think Ilgauskas will be a big factor in this series, as I don't think Perkins is experienced enough to deal with an inside-outside threat like him (much different from guarding Horford). In the backcourt, it's going to depend on who's hitting their 3-pointers, and I'll give the edge to Ray Ray at home. After all, he got game. I'll give the Celtics the win, but not by double-digits. Close game coming down the stretch. I don't like to put more than half a unit down on a Game 1 unless the line is ridiculous, because I like to hang back and see how the matchups unfold. Enjoy the game.
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OK, so I got the KG under 20 points thing wrong, but I got the part about Ilgauskas being a big factor for the Cavs right. We'll call it a push on the analysis, and a win on the pick.
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