Around these parts we've commented on more than one occasion about the fact that Daisuke Matsusaka's scorching April was mostly a mirage and would present some prime gambling opportunities as the season wore on.
Kansas City Royals +198 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.98.
Rather than waste multiple paragraphs on this subject again, we will simply point out that Matsusaka has been walking far too many hitters and has gotten way too lucky on balls in play to sustain his numbers. The Red Sox have every reason to be favored here, but +198 is way too good a price against a decent but unspectacular pitcher.
Texas Rangers +105 (mult. sites), 1 unit to win 1.05 units.
Padilla has looked great this year. We're not suggesting he's on his way to a Cy Young campaign, but he's facing Livan Hernandez, so we give a slight edge to the Rangers there, especially if you consider Padilla's numbers against these Twins hitters and Livan's against the Rangers' lineup. A small sample, but again, when you add in what we consider to be a decent advantage for the Rangers at the dish, it looks good.
Interestingly, the Rangers are about 3 games better than the Twins in Baseball Prospectus's Third Order Wins standings, which take into account a team's runs scored and runs against as well as their strength of schedule. This is a useful tool in May and June, when some teams are off to misleading "hot" or "cold" starts and many teams have not played a schedule that is as balanced as it will eventually be later in the year. In this case, we're getting a slightly better team with the slightly better starter and a great, if limited, history in the individual batter/starting pitcher matchups. We'll take +105 on that any time.
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