The Friday tennis picks went 2-0, so Grover says I have to play twice as many picks for Saturday and no favorites allowed. So, here are the underdogs and longshots for the 3rd round matches on Saturday, with limited explanations because I just got back from watching Clay Buchholz's rehab start in AAA ball, and I'm a little drunk and tired (note: I did the homework earlier today when I was both awake and sober):
J. Melzer +200 (Matchbook) over G. Monfils, 0.50 units to win 1 unit
I've already won some money on this Austrian kid, so we're playing with house money. A fairly even match, Monfils is not twice as good as Melzer.
F. Gonzalez +150 (WSEX) over S. Wawrinka, 0.50 units to win 0.75 units
Picking the #24 seed over the #9 seed, because I think the Spaniard is as good or better on clay than the favorite. Happy to get the underdog money on this one.
J. Benneteau +432 (Pinnacle) over R. Soderling, 0.25 units to win 1.08 units
Soderling has posted some good wins on clay this season, but the Frenchman, Benneteau, is pretty good on this surface as well, and was a Quarter-Finalist here at the French Open in 2006. Getting more than 4 to 1, it's worth a shot.
M. Ancic +1400 (Pinnacle) over R. Federer, 0.25 units to win 3.50 units
Yes, in order to win this one, Roger Federer has to get bounced out early. I'm aware. But, after pretty much winning every tournament he played in the past 5 years (or losing in the Finals to Nadal), Roger has looked very human this year in losing several matches to inferior competition. Ancic is a good player on this surface, he's serving well so far, and although it's not very likely that he wins tomorrow, I think that if these 2 guys played 10 matches on clay, Ancic would win 1 of them, which even with my lousy math makes 14 to 1 a good bet. Hopefully, Federer gets distracted thinking about his next Gillette commercial and gets surprised by the solid underdog. Mon Dieu!
J. Melzer +200 (Matchbook) over G. Monfils, 0.50 units to win 1 unit
I've already won some money on this Austrian kid, so we're playing with house money. A fairly even match, Monfils is not twice as good as Melzer.
F. Gonzalez +150 (WSEX) over S. Wawrinka, 0.50 units to win 0.75 units
Picking the #24 seed over the #9 seed, because I think the Spaniard is as good or better on clay than the favorite. Happy to get the underdog money on this one.
J. Benneteau +432 (Pinnacle) over R. Soderling, 0.25 units to win 1.08 units
Soderling has posted some good wins on clay this season, but the Frenchman, Benneteau, is pretty good on this surface as well, and was a Quarter-Finalist here at the French Open in 2006. Getting more than 4 to 1, it's worth a shot.
M. Ancic +1400 (Pinnacle) over R. Federer, 0.25 units to win 3.50 units
Yes, in order to win this one, Roger Federer has to get bounced out early. I'm aware. But, after pretty much winning every tournament he played in the past 5 years (or losing in the Finals to Nadal), Roger has looked very human this year in losing several matches to inferior competition. Ancic is a good player on this surface, he's serving well so far, and although it's not very likely that he wins tomorrow, I think that if these 2 guys played 10 matches on clay, Ancic would win 1 of them, which even with my lousy math makes 14 to 1 a good bet. Hopefully, Federer gets distracted thinking about his next Gillette commercial and gets surprised by the solid underdog. Mon Dieu!
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