An Early Play

San Francisco Giants +151 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.51 units.

Wagerline shows this line dropping steadily since it opened at +166. We want to get this ine before it moves any further. The worm may have finally turned on Barry Zito. No, we don't mean he's going to suddenly become a good pitcher. We mean that he's gotten so much negative publicity that he may now represent good value, instead of being a quality fade due to name recognition that far exceeded his ability.

On the flip side, Scott Olsen's stats this year seemingly defy statistical analysis, not to mention common sense. Somehow he is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. But he's walking everyone. No way this continues. The Giants' anemic offense might not be the one that finally roughs him up, but at +151 we're willing to take the chance.

For those of you that put stock in these sorts of things: the line is moving in favor of the Giants despite bets (not money, the number of bets) coming in at a 3-1 clip for the Marlins.