Monday Night Picks

Good recovery for the home team this weekend. Two more good-looking underdog plays for Monday night:

Detroit Tigers +111 (Matchbook), 1 to win 1.11

The Tigers are playing well, they've got a quality starter on the mound tonight, and they re at home. Matsusaka has looked very sharp to the casual observer, but a closer look reveals that he has struggled with control and has mostly been the beneficiary of good luck (as illustrated by his absurdly low .195 BABIP). This looks to us like a great example of a "public" line. This is the ESPN game, which tends to draw interest from the casual bettor. When that casual bettor looks at the line, he (or she) sees the defending champions with their well-known pitcher going against a Tigers team that is best known by the casual fan as the team that started out the season ice-cold. Indeed, the line movement today seems to reflect that: according to wagerline.com, the Tigers opened at -104 and the line has since moved in accordance with public money on the Sox. Public, schmublic.

Texas Rangers +117 (Matchbook), 1 to win 1.17

As Hambone knows and has mentioned in passing before, I hate the Mariners. Well, more accurately, I think they're terrible. I actually love them for wagering purposes because based on pre-season wagers and consistent in-season fading, the 2008 Mariners may earn me more money then any team in my lifetime. Others, most notably Vegas Watch, have discussed the likelihood that the 2008 Mariners will fail to live up to expectations. I think they're correct; in fact, I'll go beyond that and say that I think the Mariners represent something of a perfect storm of public misperception. I'll write more about this later. For now, let's just say that Millwood is better than Washburn, and the Seattle offense is just ugly. I'll take underdog money on that scenario every time.