Tuesday Picks

We seem to have fallen into a bit of a mini-slump. Let's see if we can make a little magic happen. All lines for today's action from Matchbook:

Atlanta Braves -102, 1.02 units to win 1 (night game).

Two teams struggling to get over the hump in the NL East forced to turn to almost-new starters in the second game of a doubleheader. The difference, as we see it, is that Campillo has more extensive relief experience in the bigs and has put up K/BB and WHIP numbers that suggest he may find continued success. We've written about the fact that we think the Braves may be undervalued this season since their record isn't indicative of their outstanding RS/RA numbers, so we'll start practicing what we preach here.

San Francisco Giants +124, 1 unit to win 1.24.

This is the typical Against All Odds play: a great starting pitcher for a mediocre team getting underdog money because he's opposing an overrated squad. In this instance it's Tim Lincecum (whose name I'm still not sure how to pronounce) opposing the NL champion Rockies who are a shell of their former selves, especially without Troy Tulowitzki. The number (+124) screams value.

Some place in Southern California Angels +103, 1 unit to win 1.03.

We had a little difficulty committing to this. Something looks "wrong" here, since Lackey is clearly the more talented starter and the Angels are the more talented lineup. I think the eye-opening line may be due to the fact that both McGowan and the Blue Jays have had success recently against the Angels- something I frequently dismiss if, as here, the sample sizes are relatively small. But there may be something else at work here. Something sinister. Anyway, caveat emptor.