Baseball is back!

Not a lot of games today, but almost all of them are tempting. Going with these two for now, but also leaning towards Baltimore and Pittburgh:

Cincinnati Reds +135 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.35 units.

Cueto's up-and-down performances have been discussed here before, but there's something else at work here. He's facing Santana, who you rarely see getting anything better than -150, and for good reason. This line opened at +137 according to Wagerline, which seemed sorta low to begin with, and has dropped ten points by their data to +127 despite the fact that the public is predictably all over the Mets and Santana. Somebody a lot smarter/richer/mobb-ier than us knows something. We don't know what it might be, but we'll blindly follow.

San Diego Padres -102 (Matchbook or WSEX), 1.02 units to win 1 unit.

With our approach to baseball wagering, you very rarely get the chance to back a guy like Jake Peavy. This is one of those rare opportunities, so we're seizing it. Lohse has been strong, but his K/BB ratio suggests he's also been a bit lucky (BABIP of .286 is also marginally lower than average). The teams' third order records suggest that the Padres are slightly better than their record indicates, and the Cardinals are about five games worse. But mostly, we're just looking forward to actually getting to root for an ace instead of against one.