(Cue "Eye of the Tiger" music) Slowly working our way back from the depths recently. Four for Monday night, all lines from Matchbook:
Orioles +151, 1 unit to win 1.51 units
This game is way too close to a coin-flip to be getting a number like this. Mussina has been killing us (and helping my fantasy team) lately, but if it's the right play, it's the right play.
Rays +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Better pitcher on the better team as a slight underdog. Sounds good to us.
Twins -110, 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Buehrle has the bigger name, but Slowey has been slightly better over the course of the season. Buehrle gets hit pretty hard tonight.
Giants +181, 1 unit to win 1.81 units
With the Dodgers injuries and lack of hitting, they should not be laying this kind of number against a little league team. 73% of wagerline disagrees with us, which makes me like it even more.
Good luck tonight everybody.
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7 comments:
I don't see the attraction of this Rays play. Shields is only marginally better than Burnett, and the overall team quality really isn't important. If anything, I think both Burnett and Toronto are undervalued.
And Toronto is certainly not public in this spot.
I agree with what you say about the Dodgers....But I every time I play against them, which is a lot lately, they beat me (thanks Nats)
Vegas, this play was very close, I admit. Maybe we're a little biased toward the Rays because of Grover's season win total Over interest. I'm not sure what you mean about overall team quality not being important, but maybe I should have said "better hitting team" instead of just "better team." As to the public play, I'm not sure that there is one here - wagerline is 51/49 or 52/48, sportsinsights showing 59% Bluejays for what that's worth. Thanks for the comment.
pissed off,
I hear what you're saying. I think we were on the Nats at least once in that series and got beat as well. Thanks for reading, we'll get them eventually.
The Rays didn't jump out at me this morning, but I think it's a worthy play at + number. I think Shields is more than marginally better than Burnett. Their PECOTA projections for the season were about the same, but Shields has shown amazing control this year- 24 walks in 137 innings is rather impressive. I don't think that's a flash in the pan- Shields is a young guy and is still trending upwards, so I think his amazing control might be for real.
My thinking was that part of the Rays' home-road split played a part in this line, and given the relatively neutral playing field at Tropicana Park, I think that favor is overrated. I agree with you that Toronto is undervalued and I've been avoiding any position opposing them for a while now, but I liked them here with their only "big name" pitcher.
"factor," not "favor."
I'm not so good with the typos in the comments.
My plays for this evening are...
SF($111)
Det($174)
TB($273)
Atl($217)
Fla($349)
Hou($270)
Tex($608)
Pit($129)
vr, Xeifrank
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