I am starting to look at the NFL Win Total lines. Win Total lines have always been a favorite of mine, because they allow for a single multi-unit play that removes some of the day-to-day randomness of single games as well as the grind of daily review and the second-guessing that inevitably come with certain personnel matchups and other factors.
I am comfortable making these bets in MLB. But as far as football goes, I am a relative neophyte, and I have two questions I'd like to throw out to there to our generally intelligent, well-meaning readers:
(1) Is it better to bet now, or after training camp and a few preseason games? My gut reaction is that it's better to bet now, since I will probably be playing Unders on teams with a few media-favored superstars and overs on underrated teams that don't have marquee names but have superior depth and coaching track records; thus, the inevitable preseason injuries would more likely help me than hurt me. On the other hand, more information is never the enemy of a bettor, plus the public might overreact to a big injury, allowing us to take advantage.
(2) Anyone know of a site that offers these with reasonable juice? WSEX is the only one of my regularly visited sites that offers win total bets, and they appear to be charging 15%. Too much for the unpredictability of a 16 game season, if you ask me.
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3 comments:
I hate nfl/college win totals. Thats a long time to have your money locked up. That being said I naturally like the Pats and Cowboys unders.
I definitely suggest you guys check out the new Pro Football Prospectus.
Thanks, Buckeye. We both just got our shiny new PFP a week or so ago. A lot of info for $13. We were talking about the Cowboys Under also, so good to hear that you like that one, too.
Thanks, Buckeye. I was eyeing them because I love baseball win total bets. Locking up my money for six months was, to me, a small price to pay for the opportunity to bet the Over on Tampa at 72 wins, or the Under on Seattle at 84.5 wins.
But in baseball was able to look at multiple predictors (PECOTA, ZiPs, etc.) and see where there was consensus, whereas the only preseason football projections I trust are the FootballOutsiders ones. Plus a 162 game season is a lot easler to predict than a 16 game season. But it still seems like a "safer" bet than trying to predict 3 short hours of NFL football.
Anyway, thanks for sharing. I'm happy to hear more of your thoughts.
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