Friday Picks- The Tide is Turning

I can feel it. It's gonna be a good weekend. Mostly because I'll be gone. Site is in Hambone's capable, WNBA-loving hands until Monday. Before I depart, here's tonight's picks. I don't love posting these so early, before I get a chance to fully evaluate line moves, but when there's a deck chair and a case of Yuengling with your name on it, you do what you gotta do:

San Francisco Giants +145 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.

I hate to fade fellow MOT Jason Marquis in this, a banner year for the Jewish ballplayer. But my love of Cain is well-known, and when the public is going against him at a 3 to 1 clip, I can't be expected to pass.

Baltimore Orioles +192 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.92 units.

Buchholz is -200 today. This makes perfect sense, because everyone knows that there's nobody more reliable than a guy making his first major-league start in two months after stints in the DL and in the minors. The fact that the O's happen to be the team that Buchholz no-hit last year is also probably good for an extra +20 on our side. Plenty of value at this number.


Minnesota Twins +140 (BetUS), 2 units to win 2.8 units.

Public on the Tigers at a 3-2 clip (no doubt influenced by the 18-5 pounding the Twins took on Wednesday), but the line has plummeted almost 20 points in the opposite direction since opening. Gallarraga's .225 BABIP and K/BB ratio of less than 2/1 suggest that he's not nearly as good as his surface numbers would indicate. Perkins' .325 BABIP and 2.5/1 K/BB ratio suggest that he is better than his surface numbers indicate. Sometimes all of the factors that we love here at Against All Odds come together in a single game. When that happens, I have no problem playing two units (or more, if I were the kind of degenerate that gambled with real money) instead of forcing another one-unit play. It's not a "lock," or anything close, because there's no such thing. Hopefully you don't need anyone to tell you that. It's just a play with enough value to warrant multiple units.