Running short on time today. Here's the afternoon pick:
Marlins +163 (matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.63 units
Josh Johnson has looked pretty good since his return. We have a history of fading Dempster when possible, and with a number this big, we can't pass on another opportunity. A really nice spot for us today. Back later with a few for tonight.
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3 comments:
Preview of tonight's action: Braves and Jurrjens are underdogs in Philly against Kyle Kendrick. Line is +115 and climbing.
I think the MLB schedulemakers have conspired with Bobby Cox and Charlie Manuel to see how much money they can get us to lay down on a single play.
Long time reader, first time poster. 'Fading' Dempster has only lost one game at home this year and that was to Linecum. Cubs are going to light up Johnson. Just my my two cents.
Thanks for commenting- I wish we got more of them. Part of the reason we started this was to learn from others.
With the exception of parks that have clear biases to lefties or righties (Fenway. eg.) or to groundball/flyball pitchers (Philly, eg.), I don't much subscribe to home/road splits. Hambone and I differ on that. As far as Dempster goes, his K/BB ratio is barely over 2/1 this year (decent, but not spectacular) and his BABIP is an unsustainably low .252, so it looks to me like he's gotten a bit lucky this season. If you'd asked me to bet my life on the outcome, I'd take the Cubs all day, but this price looked good (and still will look good if the Marlins can get out of this jam in the 5th and keep it 2-1).
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