A four-pack for tonight, lines from Matchbook:
Twins +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units
Twins hitting well recently and they've got the better pitcher on the mound tonight.
Padres -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
I felt kind of square for leaning to San Diego tonight until I saw the betting numbers, and the majority appear to be on the Reds. Betting on Jake Peavy is the contrarian play? What's the world coming to?
Royals +116, 1 unit to win 1.16 units
I sent Grover an e-mail yesterday morning predicting that I would be supporting KC today. What can I say? I'm psychic.
Indians +165, 1 unit to win 1.65 units
Ummmmmm. We were thinking that...... Ummmmmm. Wow. That line is retarded.
Good luck everybody. Possibly a WNBA pick tonight, still undecided.
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5 comments:
Looks like we have more faith in Matt Ginter than Matt Ginter does. From Wagerline preview:
"If you've got a uniform on, you've got a chance," Ginter told Cleveland's official Web site.
So his strongest argument in his favor is that he's currently wearing a baseball uniform. That makes me feel good.
He should have pointed to his 2008 K/BB ratio of infinity.
Ok, I have a boatload of em today.
ML COL $355
ML SF $535
ML FLA $359
ML PHI $651
ML HOU $654
ML BAL $114
ML NYY $322
ML OAK $272
ML KC $234
ML TEX $319
ML SEA $630
OVER TEX/CWS 9.5 $500
vr, Xeifrank
I would agree with most of those. As for the few I disagree with:
Curious about your thoughts on Philly- usually I love it when the line moves in the opposite direction of public sentiment, as is the case here. But the disparity between Santana's 2008 performance and the public perception of his year (See Baseball Prospectus, free this week) frightens me- wonder if there's value in fading him with such a big stake. Thoughts?
Also would like to hear the thoughts behind the big Houston stake. Public loves them, and Moneyline's point about Maholm today seems like a good one to me.
As I said, I'd agree with 75% of your card. Good luck tonight.
Grover, results come from my simulator and it's numbers are then plugged into a Kelly System Calculator for bet amounts. Simulator is given input data/player stats from the last calendar year. There are some environmental variables you can control, but I try to keep the human element out of it as much as possible. :)
vr, Xei
Tell me more of this simulator. I'm curious. How would it account for something like the White Sox starter today, a great prospect with limited MLB experience? Does it use PECOTA projections?
Good call on the Phillies last night. Sometimes I forget that starters don't automatically pitch nine innings. Right.
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