Friday Night

Thanks to fellow M.O.T. Ryan Braun for saving our day yesterday with his 9th inning heroics. Moving on...

Atlanta Braves +119 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 2.38 units.

I didn't clear the double-unit play with Hambone, but this website is supposed to reflect how we're really betting. Er, I mean, how we WOULD bet if internet gambling was unambiguously permitted in the United States. I can't speak for Hambone, but I'm doubling up on this one. That is, I WOULD double up on this one, if it were legal. Plus last time I made an unapproved two-unit play, it won, so I figure I'm 100% on them.

Jair Jurrjens isn't just the better pitcher here ... he's the far better pitcher. After adjusting for park factors, the Phillies offense about 50 runs better than the Braves on the season. And the Braves are without Chipper. But that small margin at the dish (about .5 runs/game) is not nearly enough to overcome the huge disparity in the pitching matchup. Atlanta opened at +104, and even that line probably factored in public's Philly bias. The public has since moved it to this level. We'll go the other way for two units.

Baltimore Orioles +125 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.22 units.

We're just gonna keep fading Saunders and the Angels until we're broke or they send us off to the loony bin or both. One of these days, his uppance will come. And when it does, Hambone and I will celebrate our wealth and genius and ignore the fact that we've lost fading him at least 7 times this season. Can't live in the past. Anyway, the line's not really moving despite public on Angels at better than 2 to 1. Sounds good to me.

Interesting note- it appears someone at BetUS hates the Orioles. Best prices on them are consistently at BetUS, despite the added juice.

Washington Nationals +182 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.82 units.

The Over/Under on this game is 7. Vegas expects a pitcher's duel, probably because Lannan and Billingsley are both good pitchers. That, to me, is the key- two good pitchers, two weak offenses. Sure, one pitcher is a little better, and one offense is a little better, but in a game where Vegas projects a median of 7 total runs, it seems odd to say that one team is almost twice as likely to win as the other team. Am I crazy? Please explain the error in my logic in the comments.