Horrible weekend all around. I spent the better part of my birthday in the emergency room with a shoulder injury. Hambone has a losing streak of epic proportions, capped off with a post questioning Roger Federer's attitude and passion right before he recovers from 2 sets down to play Nadal to a near-draw in an amazing tennis match. Anyway, today we begin the long road to recovery with these gems:
Minnesota Twins +160 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.60 units.
I love this play. If we weren't on a losing streak, I would make it a two-unit play. However, because we're losing, I'm worried that upping the bets would be going "on tilt," so I'm looking to be a little more careful. Anyway, Scott Baker is at least the equal of Daisuke Matsuzaka. I would argue he's a bit better. The Ortiz-less Sox and the Twins are about even on the offensive side. The Sox are at home and the Twins might be a bit tired, but I can't see how this line could be any higher than Twins +110 if the home team's jerseys didn't say "Red Sox" on them. I don't bet on clothing.
Atlanta Braves +131 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.31 units.
Atlanta on the road with the undervalued Jorge Campillo is an easy play. I actually like Kuroda, who's on the mound for the Dodgers tonight, but the pitching matchup is at least a push, if not in the Braves' favor, and neither team is much for run production. Taking two road teams on a Monday (when they would be at their most tired) is a minor downside, but the extreme home-road split we saw over the first two months of the season seems to be normalizing, so we'll hope that trend continues tonight. Lots of value in both these dogs.
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The Federer comments were designed to shame him into trying harder, and it worked. I knew he was checking the site in between sets.
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