Both The Greek and WSEX have tournament head-to-head lines listed for Robert Karlsson vs. Henrik Stenson. I've spent some time this morning looking at both guys, and for the life of my I can't separate them. Stenson has a slightly better "resume," if you will, and a higher world ranking. Karlsson is ahead of him in the Order of Merit (Karlsson 3rd, Stenson 6th), although that may be a product of having played three more tournaments in 2008. However, Karlsson's results over the last six tournaments are impressive, to say the least. Stenson's been good, but Karlsson is red-hot. Five out of the six were top-tens (two majors in that mix), and the only finish outside the top-ten was 13th. Stenson was about five shots better than Karlsson last year at Firestone, which I guess kind of balances it. Like I said, tough to separate.
The Greek has Karlsson at -105 and Stenson at -115. Looks about right.
WSEX has Karlsson at +115 and Stenson at -140. Ahem. You know what to do. They tee off at 12:15 ET. Get to it.
Robert Karlsson over Henrik Stenson +115 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.15 units.
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3 comments:
I like the price, but I am not a huge fan of the pick. Karlsson has 73.75 on average at Firestone South.
There are huge sample size issues with this stat (only 8 rounds), but I would still be a bit concerned.
Yeah, I was aware of his scores, but as you mentioned, I think the sample size is too small. I looked briefly at his cards from 2007, and saw a 78 due in large part to a triple and a 76 due in large part to a double. No idea what happened there, but take those holes away and he basically played even with Stenson. Not that you can completely dismiss two holes on the same track last year, but you can't really give much credence to them either. Especially the way Karlsson's been playing lately.
The move was almost entirely based on the price as compared with The Greek, though. If The Greek says they're -105 and -115, and I can get one of them for +115, it sounds like value to me.
Good luck with the tourney this weekend
My biggest horse has a fantastic track record at this course.
And just triple bogeyed the 1st hole.
I am awesome at handicapping golf.
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