Counting Down to Pitchers and Catchers

It is my unfortunate guess that the Rays, with their mix of a history of 100+ game losing seasons and PECOTA-friendly youth, were a unique opportunity for futures betting, not to mention game-to-game value for the first few weeks of the season.

But that won't stop me from taking the earliest possible look at 2009 to try to find "next year's Rays." Especially because The D.C. Sports Bog was kind enough to post the 2009 World Series Lines from BetUS. Obviously I wouldn't think about laying down any cash until next March. Not only do you want to see how retirement/free agency/injuries shake out, but also because a year is a long time to lock up your money.

Nevertheless, it's worth taking an early look at these to eye up some possibilities because I for one plan to be ready to pounce on futures and win total over/under bets as soon as PECOTA comes out for the 2009 season. Nate Silver's getting a little too famous for my tastes, and I'm worried that next year the lines might move a lot more based on his projections.

Taking a look at the above lines (I can't line-shop at the office) as compared to the 2008 adjusted standings, one team jumps out as obvious value: the Cleveland Indians at 30-1. They've got an adjusted record of 84.1- 77.9. Furthermore, they earned at record despite being bit by the injury bug worse than most, and despite trading away front-line talent to contenders in deadline (or in their case, pre-deadline) deals.

More importantly, the Indians, like the Rays, have a ton of young talent that will all be in that mid-20s range when we tend to see the most breakouts. Here's a list of talented Indians who will be in that range when next season begins:

Fausto Carmona
Jhonny Peralta
Matt LaPorta (a future non-steroid-laden Travis Hafner)
Aaron Laffey

You can stop right there, add on the regulars, and be more than happy with the Indians' outlook for 2009, but there's more:


Rafael Perez (the sort of young bullpen arm every team craves)
Adam Miller/Chuck Lofgren (I'm assuming one of them will end up being a force, so together they get one entry)
Wes Hodges
Jensen Lewis
Andy Marte (I know, I know, but worth mentioning just for the mere possibility that he turns it around)
Shin-Soo Choo (probably a fluke season, but I still gotta mention him, plus it's an awesome name)


Add to that the fact that their none of their three established stars, Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, are at an age when their production would be expected to decline. And there's no reason Garko and several other guys can't just keep doing their thing. In fact, the only 2008 Indians regular I see entering the attrition danger zone is Kobayashi.

And then, for good measure, take a look at the ages of the best players on the roster of the only team that finished ahead of them in their division, the Chicago White Sox. It's almost impossible to underestimate this factor. I fully expect to be playing the Under on the White Sox win total next year for big money. The Twins are always worth talking about, but this is also the front office that ran Livan Hernandez out to the mound every five days in the midst of a pennant chase while Francisco Liriano was throwing two-hitters every start in the minors. So there's that.

Anyway, in my estimation, the Indians are 50/50 to win the AL Central next year. Combine that with the generic 1 in 8 postseason odds and you're left with 15-1 or thereabouts for World Series odds. Plenty of value at 30-1.

Comments welcome and encouraged here. I'd particularly like to hear from Indians fans that can speak to their prospects and/or the front office attitude towards any free agent signings.