NFL Week 7

Lines are as of my line-shopping at around 8:30 PM last night. You know, back when the Rays were jumping all over the Sox early for the third night in a row, and all was right with the world. Oh, those were happy times.

Oakland Raiders +4 -105 (BetUS), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

I am not an old-Favre fan. That said, this isn't simply an old-Favre fade. Oakland's a home dog, and everyone is staying away from them- only 24% of the wagers are on the Raiders according to Wagerline. Understandable, given the instability. But with that much coming in on the Jets, why isn't the line moving? It's +3 elsewhere, +4 at my beloved BetUS. Not a huge margin. I don't think the Jets have done anything noteworthy yet- they beat a hapless Bengal team last week. Their marquee performance, the 6-TD-Pass drubbing of the Cardinals, was almost entirely a product of turnovers. The Cardinals actually outgained the Jets in that game. I'll take any NFL home dog playing against a team that hasn't done anything to suggest it's among the NFL elite.


Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.05 units.

Two teams with identical 3-3 records. If their records were an accurate reflection of the teams' quality, the 3 point edge to the home team would make perfect sense. But they're not even close. Minnesota's three losses: at Green Bay on a Monday night, at home to a Colts team that got a miracle Manning comeback, and on the road to the undefeated Titans. Hard to hold that against them. It's not so much that the Bears have lost to particularly awful teams (at Carolina, home vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta). Rather, I think the Vikings have had a brutal schedule thus far, and I think their overall team quality is more in line with the preseason predictions found in Pro Football Prospectus and elsewhere.

The fact that 67% of wagerline bettors are on the Bears doesn't hurt either.


New Orleans/Carolina Under 46.5 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

I have no idea why this number was available, or if it's still available. The line was 44.5 or 45 elsewhere. But I checked it twice over a half-hour time span, and there it was. 46.5. WSEX is handing us two extra points free of charge. If they're still doing it, might as well take them up on it. I also like the fact that wagerline bettors are on the over at a 66% clip. Apparently they only saw "New Orleans" in the listing, and missed the fact that the second-best defense in the league is playing in this game.

A couple other thoughts: last night The Packers were listed at +3 -105 at home vs Indy) at BetUS. The line is +1 or +1.5 elsewhere. I like this play- we're passing on it because we already have a big stake in the Pack from our preseason win total bets, but if it's still +3 at BetUS it's worth a look. I'd also keep an eye on Kansas City at home vs. the Titans. The line's been creeping upward since the Larry Johnson suspension was announced. If it gets high enough (say 11 or so), it's worth a play.