Stop the Presses!!!

The most shocking Against All Odds play of 2008:

Boston Red Sox +130 (Matchbook I think), 1 unit to win 1.30 units.

That's right, we're playing Dice-K tonight. Our archenemy. Why? Well, let's start with the fact that the Red Sox are a far better team top-to-bottom. You don't end up 18 games ahead of a team in the Baseball Prospectus third-order standings by chance. Plus Wagerline shows the public on the Angels, presumably because they see tonight as some sort of "must win," which is of course a load of crap. If you can get underdog money on the better team while fading the public, you have to take a second look and check out the pitching matchups.

Here's where it gets dicey (ha!). We'd faded Dice-K all year because his control is terrible. He tries way too hard to hit the corners, and patient hitters can make him pay by accepting free passes to first base by the bunches. However, as Joe Posnanski points out, the Angels are NOT patient hitters. Quite the opposite. Furthermore, the series schedule (chosen by the Angels by the way) provided for a day off yesterday AND a day off tomorrow. What this means, as Tom Verducci noted, is that Dice-K can be his usual corner-seeking self, going for strikeouts whenever he needs them and walking a few in the process, because if he gets into any sort of trouble, the Sox have full use of their bullpen to bail him out. The schedule also nullifies the Angels' biggest advantage, bullpen depth, because the Sox can go ahead and throw Papelbon for two innings if they want with zero repercussions. Well played, Anaheim.

So that's the reasoning. But mostly, I enjoy the irony. Expect Dice-K to get shelled tonight, most likely by giving up seven walks.