OK, I think I've gotten all my whining done for a couple of hours. We're playing the Friday night game, and for those of you that asked (masochists), a few early picks for tomorrow, all lines from Matchbook:
Friday
San Jose State +7 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
Really stout defense so far this year from the Spartans. Boise State has a big public backing on this one, but no line movement at all. Boise just not as tough on a green field.
Saturday
SMU +12 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
SMU's defensive numbers look terrible, but they are a little skewed by a couple of games where they gave up huge yardage to some really powerful offenses (e.g. 693 yards to Texas Tech, 602 yards to Tulsa). SMU boasts a strong passing attack vs. Navy's lame pass defense. On the flipside, Navy does nothing but run on offense (and they admittedly do it well), which means they keep the clock moving.
Utah State +14.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Utah State is not good. But, neither is Fresno State. Squeaking past Toledo by one point in overtime, losing to Hawaii at home, beating Idaho by only 13 points - these results don't lead me to believe that Fresno should be laying a big number of points to anybody. Add in the big line move from -17.5 all the way down to -14.5 despite 70% of wagerline on Fresno, and there you have it. Fresno will have success running the ball, but they are terrible on defense (just about as bad as Utah State). Fresno wins, but not by this margin.
Middle Tennessee State +10 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
As I've said many times, I'm no mathematical genius, but I took out my calculator and slide rule, and determined that it is extremely difficult to beat somebody by double-digits if you don't score any points. Extremely difficult.
Back tomorrow with additions, and my partner should be on with an early NFL pick or two later as well. Good luck everybody.
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