This Week in the No Fun League

Write-ups from Grover, who is on the road traveling today, but sent them to me before he left. All lines from Matchbook:

Tampa -1 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

This call is borderline, toughest of the three plays, but I do like the Bucs here. The teams look virtually even on paper to me. The Bucs are averaging about 20 more ypg on offense, the Panthers are giving up about 50 ypg less. The small difference there could be nullified when you consider the Bucs' slightly easier schedule according to Sagarin's ratings. The LVSC have the Panthers about a point better than the Bucs on their scale (139-138).

To me, looks like the Bucs should be -3 as the home team. Standard home team advantage is, I believe, 3 or 4 points. Carolina might have the slightest of edges on a neutral field, but the fact that the game's in Tampa more than makes up for it. But the line is set at -1.5 instead, which suggests value to me, especially with a majority of wagerline bettors on the other side.

Atlanta +2.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

This is one of those great cases where a team is carrying undeserved baggage from the previous year and we get to take advantage of it. The '07 Falcons were in disarray. They were a total mess. The '08 Falcons aren't gonna win the Super Bowl, but they're 3-2, and it's not a pure fluke. They've upgraded across the board at the offensive skill positions. Yet they get 2.5 points at home against a team that has an identical 3-2 record? And then the Wagerline bettors hop all over their opponent (Chicago) at a 68% clip. Do these people not know how important home field is in the NFL? Also, a quick look at the NFL injury report suggests to me that the Bears' top players are a little more banged up than the Falcons' top players.

San Francisco +4.5 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units

Another case where the teams' pre-2008 history is having more impact on bettors than it should. The Niners and Eagles have identical 2-3 records. I'm not gonna argue that they're even, since the Eagles have obviously had to endure a much tougher schedule to get to 2-3. But really, San Fran gets 4.5 at home? The only impressive thing the Eagles have done is beat Pittsburgh, at home, in a game that the Steelers lost due to an inexplicable failure to adjust their defense to the Eagles' blitzes (Aside to Steelers' brass: if you pay me enough, I'll be happy to come teach your team about slant routes and screen passes). And you probably don't even need to look at the injury report to guess who's worse for the wear this week. But go ahead and look anyway. It will make you feel a lot better about this play. Apparently Wagerline's bettors haven't looked, since they're playing Philly at a 73% clip. Probably some nonsense about how it's a "must win" for the Eagles. Whatever.

Could be another addition or two Sunday morning (especially since Grover is out of town, and I'm in charge). Maybe a baseball game or two later (prefer Billingsley and Shields in those matchups, but haven't finished looking yet).