Halfway Home: Checking On Our Win Total Bets

As we continue to struggle around the break-even mark in the NFL week to week, I thought the eight week mark would be a good time to check the status of our multi-unit win total bets. And to remind everyone that follows our advice that regardless of our week-to-week balance, if you made the win total bets, you're probably gonna win a shitload of money this NFL season. I'm certainly looking forward to it.

Baltimore Ravens Over 6 Wins -120 (WSEX), 3.6 units to win 3 units

Team Record: 4-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: About as tough as an AFC North schedule can get.
Chance of Payoff: Pretty good.

The hurricane-related Week Two bye at Houston was a stroke of bad luck for the Ravens (and the people of Houston, I guess). The Ravens have three straight road games over the next three weeks as a result. I expect them to be about even-money or possibly slight underdogs in the first two (at Cleveland, at Houston) and a heavy underdog in the last one (at New York).

If the Ravens can just get one victory out of this tough three-game stretch, payout on this wager will be a lock. The last six are no walk in the park, but they get four of six at home, and they get to visit Cincinnati. Bottom line- one win in the next three equals a likely payout. Otherwise, there's a semi-decent chance of a push, although a win would still be very much possible. Almost no chance of losing this investment.

Green Bay Packers Over 8 Wins -130 (WSEX), 5.2 units to win 4 units

Team Record: 4-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Relatively tough road.
Chance of Payoff: 50/50, although a loss seems doubtful.

It's surprising that this is the weakest of the five plays, since it was the one I liked the most, and the first two weeks did nothing to sway me from that position. Unfortunately, the Pack, like the Ravens, have a tough road over the next few weeks. Next week they play the Titans in Tennessee. This is a likely loss, although there's reason to be optimistic about a noon central time start after the Titans play a Monday night game this week while the Pack is on bye. Jeff Fisher should file a complaint about that one.

Anyway, assuming they're 4-4, we'd need a 5-3 record over the last eight to win. They'll likely be slight favorites in three of the four home games and slight underdogs in all four road games. The ace in the hole is the home game Week 17 vs. the Lions. With that in the pocket, it's hard to envision them not winning at least 4 or the last 8 for a push on this wager. 5-3 or better for the payoff obviously is a taller order. As I mentioned before, a road win at Tennesee next week is not unthinkable given the scheduling screwjob on the Titans. Let's hope Favre isn't friends with Titans' management.

Detroit Lions Under 6.5 Wins +100 (WSEX), 3 units to win 3 units

Team Record: 0-7
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Does it matter?
Chance of Payoff: 99.9%.

"Lock" is considered a dirty word in the gambling community. But I'll use it here. This one's a lock. If you want to make in interesting, try to figure out if they will lose ten (thus guaranteeing a payoff on this wager) before their annual Thanksgiving Day game.


Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins +105 (Matchbook), 3 units to win 3.15 units

Team Record: 5-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Strong. Let's leave it at that.
Chance of Payoff: A lot better than it looked three weeks ago. I'd say 80%.

It sure would have been nice if the Bucs had been able to punch it in at the end of the game in Dallas yesterday. A win by Tampa would have virtually guaranteed that these last two win total wagers would pay out. As it is, they both still look pretty good. The Cowboys would have to go 6-2 over their final eight games to reach 11 wins. They are virtually assured of being underdogs in at least three of those games (at NYG, at WAS, at PIT), and will be underdogs or small favorites in at least two more (home vs. NYG, at PHI). They do get two easy ones in Weeks 12 and 13 when they host Seattle and San Francisco. Moral of the story: don't get down on this wager if/when the Cowboys go 3-1 over their next four games to get to 8-4. They have a very tough road home.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8 Wins -135 (Matchbook), 2.7 units to win 2 units

Team Record: 5-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Weak? Forgiving? Gentle? You choose your own adjective.
Chance of Payoff: Good. I'd say maybe 85%.

Again, yesterday's 13-9 loss to Dallas was a killer only in the sense that it kept us from locking up these last two bets before Halloween. The Bucs still look good. We need them to go 4-4 over the last half of the season to win (and keep in mind that 3-5 is good enough for a push). They go on the road to Kansas City this week before their Week 10 bye. So that's nice. They close with four of seven at home, including home games the last two weeks of the season vs. west coast teams (San Diego and Oakland), the latter of which will probably be trying to lose by then to improve draft position. The road games include a trip to Detroit along with journeys to Carolina and Atlanta.

I expect them to be favored in 5 or 6 of their remaining 8 games, and favored by more than a touchdown in 3 of them. They won't be underdogs by more than a field goal or so the rest of the way, except possibly when they visit Carolina. This one's not over by a long shot, but I like where it's heading.