NBA Win Totals - Western Conference

I was planning on doing every division in a separate post, like I did with the Atlantic, Central, and Southeast already. But, life gets in the way, and with the season starting Tuesday night, I'm putting the Western Conference all together in one marathon post. Not as much rambling from me on any particular team, but you'll get the recap of last year's numbers and any significant offseason changes for each one. Let's get it on:

*Pacific Division*

Golden State Warriors

Over/Under: 37.5 wins
2007-08 record: 48-34
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 48-34 (points per game differential = +2.2 pts)

Lost Baron Davis and Michael Pietrus, but added Corey Maggette, Ronny Turiaf, and Marcus Williams. A lot is going to depend on how well Williams can hold down the point until Monta Ellis returns from his 30-game suspension for lying about his moped accident (what an idiot, at least Jay Williams got hurt on a full-grown motorcycle). Same as always, this team scores over 100 points every night, but plays no defense. I lean slightly over, but not quite as many wins as last year.

Los Angeles Clippers

Over/Under: 34.5 wins
2007-08 record: 23-59
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 19-63 (ppg diff. = -7.3 pts)

A complete overhaul on this team in the offseason. The Clippers lost their 2 best players, Brand and Maggette, but added Baron Davis, Marcus Camby, Jason Williams (White Chocolate!), Ricky Davis, and rookie Eric Gordon. Whew. I won't even pretend to guess at how this turns out. History says badly, but who the hell knows?

Los Angeles Lakers

Over/Under: 54.5 wins
2007-08 record: 57-25
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 62-20 (ppg diff. = +7.3 pts)

No real losses, other than starting towel-waver Ronny Turiaf leaving for Golden State as mentioned above. On the plus side (or was that Turiaf thing a plus also?), Andrew Bynum is supposed to be healthy. I'm sure I'll be in the minority on this one, but I think this one will actually go Under despite Bynum. I think the Lakers will be very careful with Kobe with the still-injured finger and after getting a scare a few days ago with the hyper-extended knee. Also, I hate their bench (Vujacic, Walton, Mihm, yuck).

Phoenix Suns

Over/Under: 46.5 wins
2007-08 record: 55-27
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 56-26 (ppg diff. = +5.0 pts)

No significant moves, which means there's still no backup for Nash at point guard or for Shaq at center, and no, I'm not counting Dragic (who?) or Robin "Sideshow Bob" Lopez. If everybody stays healthy, there's no reason to suspect they will win 10 fewer games, but I'm not gonna count on everybody staying healthy on this aging squad. Hey, if this basketball thing doesn't work out, they could always film Cocoon III during the practices.

Sacramento Kings

Over/Under: 28.5 wins
2007-08 record: 38-44
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 34-48 (ppg diff. = -2.3 pts)

I still can't figure out how this team won over 30 games last season. Without Artest, I can't imagine them breaking 25 wins.


*Southwest Division*

Dallas Mavericks

Over/Under: 46.5 wins
2007-08 record: 51-31
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 56-26 (ppg diff. = +4.5 pts)

No bench, no center, and a starting small forward with no brain. It would take a big step back to go Under, but I lean toward a big step back this year.

Houston Rockets

Over/Under: 53.5 wins
2007-08 record: 55-27
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 57-25 (ppg diff. = +4.7 pts)

Look, Ron Artest is crazy. There's no debate about that. But, the dude can play - 20.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists last year. I guess this line reflects the fear that Ron Ron will ruin this team's chemistry, but we didn't hear much from him on a terrible Kings team, and I don't think he'll be a distraction. I would like them better if they found a backup for Yao, because Landry and Dorsey just aren't big enough, but I think this team goes Over pretty easily (of course, the second after I post this, T-Mac's spine will collapse or something).

Memphis Grizzlies

Over/Under: 22.5 wins
2007-08 record: 22-60
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 22-60 (ppg diff. = -6.2 pts)

I don't think O.J. Mayo is going to make a lot of difference in the fortunes of the Grizz this year. Line looks about right. Do they have grizzly bears in Tennessee?

New Orleans Hornets

Over/Under: 51.5 wins
2007-08 record: 56-26
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 58-24 (ppg diff. = +5.3 pts)

If you listen to enough of the talking heads out there talk about James Posey and his magical championship mojo, I guess the Hornets can't lose this year. Actually, I think their fortunes are much more strongly tied to the 3-point shooting of Peja and Mo-Pete. Love Chris Paul (ever since he punched Julius Hodge in the junk in college), but I can't quite recommend the Over here. Line is pretty sharp on this one.

San Antonio Spurs

Over/Under: 48.5 wins
2007-08 record: 56-26
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 57-25 (ppg diff. = +4.8 pts)

I probably could have saved that Cocoon III crack for this team. The Spurs really did nothing important over the offseason, other than watch Ginobli get hurt, and I think he's going to miss half the season. Like Dallas, it would take a big step back to hit the Under, but I think that's exactly what happens.


*Northwest Division*

Denver Nuggets

Over/Under: 40.5 wins
2007-08 record: 50-32
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 52-30 (ppg diff. = +3.7 pts)

Is the addition of "The Birdman" enough to make up for the loss of Camby and Najera? Probably not. They get to play Oklahoma City four times, so they've got that going for them, which is nice.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Over/Under: 30.5 wins
2007-08 record: 22-60
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 20-62 (ppg diff. = -6.8 pts)

No big losses, but added Kevin Love, Mike Miller, and Rodney Carney, all of whom will probably be starting this season. I think this team has improved itself, but with so much youth playing significant roles, I can't see them breaking 30 wins. Under.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Over/Under: 25.5 wins
2007-08 record: 20-62
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 16-66 (ppg diff. = -8.8 pts)

The worst team in the league did nothing of real consequence this summer. Pathetic. Other than Kevin Durant, their starting lineup is Earl Watson, Jeff Green, Chris Wilcox, and Nick Collison. Are they kidding? Another Under. They'll be lucky to get to 20 wins.

Portland Trailblazers

Over/Under: 44.5 wins
2007-08 record: 41-41
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 38-44 (ppg diff. = -1.0 pts)

Added Diogu, Bayless, and Rudy Fernandez, and finally get Oden on the court for at least the first game. Jarrett Jack and James Jones were nice young players, but they won't really be missed. The Over looks a little too easy on this one. I'll say they end up right about 40 wins like last year.

Utah Jazz

Over/Under: 51.5 wins
2007-08 record: 54-28
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 62-20 (ppg diff. = +6.9 pts)

Holy polygamy, look at the Pythagorean number! Eight wins better than the actual record last year. That's pretty strong, which means Utah saw a fair share of bad luck last season. Roster pretty much the same, but with an even deeper bench. Jazz sail Over the total pretty easily this season.

Enjoy the new season, folks.