One More Time

Because it's probably the last chance we'll get to fade Dice-K all season:

Tampa Bay Rays +145 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.

The Rays are a smart team. They'll leave their bats on their shoulders and let Dice-K provide their offense for them. I'm a little hesitant because of the day off before and after, which allows Francona to work Papelbon as much as he wants. As I wrote last week in our only pro-Dice-K play of the year, situations like this work for him because he can try to paint the corners and use a lot of pitches with fewer repercussions. Still, +145 is clearly value here.

For those that are troubled by the way Dice-K "dominated" the Rays in Game 1: prior to that game, he threw 15 innings against these Rays. He walked 11 in those 15 innings and was fortunate to only allow 5 runs (WHIP: 1.60). Either way, it's too small a sample size to mean much, but hopefully it at least shows you that he doesn't "have the Rays' number."