Just my ramblings on the win totals out on the NBA for this season. Hoping to find time for a quick post on each division. Over/Under numbers from The Greek. Pythagorean estimated wins for last year from the worldwide leader.
Boston Celtics
Over/Under: 53.5 wins
2007-08 record: 66-16
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 70-12 (points per game differential = +10.3 pts)
The math wiz at Vegas Watch could explain the Pythagorean win estimates much, much better than I can, but basically, it's an estimate of what a team's record should have been based on points scored and points allowed. As for the Celtics, the O/U for this year is very curious at 53.5. That's quite a dropoff from their actual record last year, and even more precipitous compared to the Pythagorean number (70 wins). Does James Posey's absence cause this difference? I don't think so. The division got tougher with Brand in Philly and Jermaine O'Neal in Toronto, but that much of a difference makes me think something else is going on. I don't know of anywhere you can get consensus betting info on win totals, but I'm sure the public will be on the Over here. Not touching this one with a ten-foot pole.
New Jersey Nets
Over/Under: 27.5 wins
2007-08 record: 34-48
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 25-57 (points per game differential = -5.1 pts)
As bad as the Nets record was last season, their "true" record based on scoring was even worse. So, while the over/under at 27.5 wins appears to represent a step down from last year's 34 wins, it's actually a step up from the Pythag wins (25), which is pretty unlikely looking at the roster. Too many unknowns in the frontcourt to forecast any improvement. Yi, Boone, Brook Lopez, and Najera aren't exactly going to strike fear in the hearts of the other big men in the division (Garnett/Perkins, Bosh/O'Neal, Brand/Dalembert, etc.). Without Jefferson, the Nets will likely revert back to their 25-win true record for last year or worse. They're worried more about high draft picks and keeping cap room for Lebron anyway. Under.
New York Knicks
Over/Under: 32.5 wins
2007-08 record: 23-59
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 21-61 (points per game diferential = -6.6 pts)
This is another head-scratcher. I know Isiah isn't a good coach, and a horrible GM, but even with a big upgrade in those areas, the Knicks are still putting pretty much the same players on the court. Maybe Duhon represents a steadier hand on the wheel at point guard than Starbury, but a 10-game improvement is a lot to ask for, even with D'Antoni calling the shots. They still have the defense-lacking train wreck of Curry/Randolph in the frontcourt, and David Lee seems as likely to get traded as he is to sign a big-money extension with Donnie Walsh in cost-cutting mode. Other than Lee, there's not much on that bench to provide help. Under.
Philadelphia 76ers
Over/Under: 48.5 wins
2007-08 record: 40-42
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 42-40 (points per game differential = +0.4 pts)
Now here's a situation that's looking up. Adding Elton Brand up front should provide the Sixers with a force in the paint they've been lacking since Sir Charles was in Philly. I really like the moves they have made this offseason, as they now have, in addition to a nice starting lineup (Miller/Iguodala/Young/Brand/Dalembert), a lot of quality guys on the bench who can provide specific areas as needed - they have 3-point specialists (Kareem Rush & Donyell Marshall), a tough rebounder (Reggie Evans), and even The Artist Formerly Known as Theo Ratliff's Expiring Contract can provide size, blocks, and six fouls if needed. Another 7-10 wins is usually a tall task from one year to the next (unless a team is tanking like the Celts two years ago), but with the huge upgrade at the 4 and the continued development of Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams, I would go with the Over on this bunch.
Toronto Raptors
Over/Under: 47.5 wins
2007-08 record: 41-41
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 51-31 (points per game differential = +2.9 pts)
That 10-win difference between the Raptors' actual record and Pythagorean record is pretty substantial - upon a quick glance, the biggest difference in the league, although the Nets are close, albeit in the opposite direction. Looking at this teams roster, they just don't look that good to me, so I'm confused on this one. Moving Calderon into the starting lineup is an improvement (averaged 9.7 assists per game in a 24-game stretch when he started in the place of an injured TJ Ford), but the dropoff at the back-up point guard spot is dramatic. There's nobody on the bench unless Bargnani takes a big step forward after taking a step back last season. And who knows what Jermaine O'Neal's health and effort will look like this season? I lean to the Under, but that Pythag number from last year gives me great pause, because this year's team should look a lot like last year plus O'Neal. This one has me completely stumped.
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