Posted the Atlantic Division a few days ago, now tackling the division of King James and Crazy 'Sheed.
Chicago Bulls
Over/Under: 40.5 wins
2007-08 record: 33-49
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 31-51 (points per game differential = -3.1 pts)
Considering the logjam at the guard spots (Rose, Hinrich, Gordon, Hughes, Sefolosha), and the question marks up front (Gooden, Noah, Thomas, Gray), it's surprising that the Bulls weren't able to move a guard for a better big man in the offseason. As it is, the roster looks like quite the mess, with Noah, Thomas, and Gray getting on-the-job training, and the guards constantly battling over playing time. I can't see how the upgrade from Chris Duhon to rookie Derrick Rose is going to add up to 8-10 wins. Rose should end up very good, but he shouldn't be expected to carry this team in his first year. Strong lean to the Under here.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over/Under: 47.5 wins
2007-08 record: 45-37
2007-08 Pythag. record: 40-42 (ppg diff. = -0.4 pts)
The significant offseason change is the addition of point guard Mo Williams from Milwaukee. Stop me if you've heard this one before (Hughes, Szczerbiak...), but Williams is supposed to be the Robin to Lebron's Batman, a second scorer to take some of the load off King James and help spread the floor. I agree Williams is a scoring upgrade over Boobie or Damon Jones, but he's not as good from the 3-point line as either one of them. If you want to open up the driving lanes for Lebron, it seems like you would want your long-range shooters on the floor. A lot depends on the health of Big Z and his injury-prone feet. If he's not playing, the Cavs are in trouble because Ben Wallace is done and Varejao is no more than an "energy guy" off the bench. If Lebron and Mo mesh early, and Ilgauskas remains healthy, they could see a slight improvemet, but there are too many "ifs" with this team for me, especially coming off a season where their opponents outscored them on the average night. Pass.
Detroit Pistons
Over/Under: 50.5
2007-08 record: 59-23
2007-08 Pythag. record: 64-18 (ppg diff. = +7.4 pts)
After promising big changes after the Pistons lost in the playoffs a few months ago, Joe Dumars followed through with the blockbuster signing of . . . Kwame Brown. Yeah. To quote Sarah Palin, "Say it ain't so, Joe." Still, there were no significant losses (apologies to Jarvis Hayes) from a 60-win team, plus there are young players ready to step up (Amir Johnson, Maxiell, Stuckey) and provide whatever extra assistance might be needed, so it's hard to imagine a 10-win reduction this year in a relatively easy division. The line looks surprisingly low, like the Celtics line, so I'm wondering if there's something going on that we don't know about yet.
Indiana Pacers
Over/Under: 35.5 wins
2007-08 record: 36-46
2007-08 Pythag. record: 36-46 (ppg diff. = -1.4 pts)
As Dennis Green might say, "They are who we thought they were!" The Pacers' Pythagorean record based on points scored and points allowed ended up exactly the same as their actual record, which seems pretty amazing to me over an 82 game season. Of course, the big difference from last year was the trade that sent Jermaine O'Neal to Toronto for TJ Ford. Although the Pacers frontline (Murphy, Foster, Nesterovic) is nothing to get excited about, I don't think they should have been expected to keep O'Neal and his 14 points & 7 rebounds per game around at the price tag of $21 million. The Pacers also picked up Jarrett Jack and Brandon Rush in the backcourt, so they are pretty solid there - sort of like the Bulls, but without the logjam that could lead to chemistry problems. All in all, I think the Pacers are slightly improved which causes me to lean to the Over. ESPN's Chad Ford, who is one of the few guys over there I still read, thinks Indy will be a playoff team this year, but I'm not quite that bullish on their prospects. Probably just a couple of games better than last year until they can get some more help in the middle.
Milwaukee
Over/Under: 30.5 wins
2007-08 record: 26-56
2007-08 Pythag. record: 20-62 (ppg diff. = -6.9 pts)
As discussed above, Mo Williams is now in Cleveland, and the Bucks have given up on the Yi experiment to acquire Richard Jefferson. Jefferson and Michael Redd can score a lot of points, but that's about it. There's nobody on the bench, and the step down Williams to Ridnour at the point is not going to help. I think the Bucks get outscored by a significant margin again this year, as they haven't addressed their defensive shortcomings, and they again end up with less than 30 wins. Under.
Up next: the Southeast
No comments:
Post a Comment