NFL Week 5

Usually we lead with college football plays Friday morning, and follow them up with NFL plays after lunch. However, Hambone usually handles the college game, and his schedule is a bit off these days. Here's our NFL plays thus far. One of us will be back with NCAA plays before the slate kicks off at noon tomorrow. As usual, these are the lines I found while line-shopping last night. Your mileage may vary. If you don't like it, I can give you the number to our IT department so you can complain about my firewall.

Seattle Seahawks +7 +103 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.03 units.

Here's what the Giants have done so far this year. In Week One, they won at home, 16-7, against a Redskins team that looked completely lost. They didn't move the ball at all in the second half. In Week Two, they crushed the Rams. In this way they resemble every other team that has played the Rams, including ... the Seahawks. In Week Three the Giants were taken to overtime at home by the Bengals. Read that one again.

I like this Giants this year. But they're atop all the power polls this week by default, not because they earned it. They're good. But they're not this good. Not good enough to give a touchdown to a decent team that's coming off a bye week and finally healthy. Not good enough to give a touchdown even when they're without their most dangerous offensive weapon. I'll take the touchdown and the +103 with pleasure, thank you.

Detroit Lions +4.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

This is a pure value play. The Lions are +3 or +3.5 everywhere else. When someone gives you a full point for no discernable reason, you gotta take it. After watching that ugly game against the Eagles last Sunday night, I don't think this Bears team is at that "NFL Road Favorite by more than a field goal" level yet. Few teams are.

Arizona Cardinals +1 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

See above- a line-shopping value play. The line is Arizona -1 or even -1.5 everywhere else. I don't know who's manning the ship over at BetUS. Maybe they hired some Lehman Brothers and AIG castaways this week.

Current Events Humor! I'm a regular Jay Leno. Anyway, this Buffalo team has surprised some people, but I don't think they've been all that impressive. As I discussed earlier, kicking the crap out of St. Louis doesn't do much for me.

Something else to take a look at with this game- The Over in this game (44.5 or so) is getting hammered according to the Wagerline data. I don't see it. Buffalo has a great defense, and while Arizona's defense is certainly not a source of great pride, the number of points the Cards have allowed is misleading, because their offense keeps turning it over in their own territory. As all PFP readers know, turnover margin is far more random than the talking heads would have you believe. If they don't turn it over 6 times this week, they won't give up 56. I promise. Anyway, I want to look a bit more but will probably add this play later.