NBA Win Totals - Southeast Division

We've done Atlantic and Central already, now let's finish off the Eastern Conference.

Atlanta Hawks

Over/Under: 36.5 wins
2007-08 record: 37-45
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 35-47 (points per game differential = -1.8 pts)

The big loss in Freaknik town was the defection of Josh Childress (11.8 pts, 4.9 reb) to Europe, which has led to a lot of the talking heads at ESPN wondering when Kobe will be leaving. The only real additions were Maurice Evans and Flip Murray. Still, Evans is decent (8.9 pts, 2.9 reb in Orlando last season), and Marvin Williams will probably get more minutes as well, and he's better than Childress, so Childress' loss is not exactly crippling or anything. The starting 5 is very solid, plus they get Bibby at point guard for the whole season instead of just a couple of months, and I think they're slightly improved this year. Slight lean to the Over.

Charlotte Bobcats

Over/Under: 36.5 wins
2007-08 record: 32-50
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 27-55 (ppg diff. = -4.4 pts)

Except for drafting DJ Augustin and pissing off Raymond Felton in the process, it doesn't look like this team did much of anything this offseason. There were plenty of former UNC Tarheels out there that they could have signed or traded for, since the team is slowly becoming an alumni association (and now Jordan brings in Larry Brown), and I can't understand how they just do nothing. I'm not sure how standing still is going to get them a 10-win improvement over last year's Pythagorean number, especially in what has become a really tough division. Under.

Miami Heat

Over/Under: 37.5 wins
2007-08 record: 15-67
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 15-67 (ppg diff. = -8.6 pts)

It's hard to forecast how much improvement a team is going to see after they spent last season tanking away all of their games. From last year, they lose Jason Williams (White Chocolate!) and Ricky Davis as they are shedding their big contracts to position themselves to pursue Carlos Boozer in free agency (you're next, Marion). The additions are pretty big: college stud Michael Beasley, plus a healthy and determined Dwyane Wade. The Chinese may have an unnatural affection for Kobe, but I watched a lot of the Olympic basketball games, and there wasn't a player in the tournament better than Wade. Still, with the total set 22.5 wins above last year's results, I don't have the balls to even hazard a lean on this one.

Orlando Magic

Over/Under: 47.5 wins
2007-08 record: 52-30
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 58-24 (ppg diff. = +5.5 pts)

Far and away the class of the division, the Magic only made a couple of relatively minor moves: signing Michael Pietrus, and letting backup point guards Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling leave. Pietrus helps defensively (don't really need scoring anyway with Turkoglu, Lewis, and Superman), so I can't see them taking a step back this season. I don't like their bench at all, but it's pretty much the same as last year (let Redick play! let Redick play!). Gun to my head, I take the Over, even though it's a big number.

Washington Wizards

Over/Under: 38.5 wins
2007-08 record: 43-39
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 40-42 (ppg diff. = -0.3 wins)

Picked up Juan Dixon and let Roger Mason Jr. go, so no significant changes. Hard to tell what this team is going to do with Arenas injured again, and now Haywood sitting out as well (he's a Tarheel, so he can always go to Charlotte). Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will be forced to carry the load, and I'm not convinced they can keep doing it year after year. No easy wins in this division any more, and the conference is improved as a whole, so this looks like a definite Under to me.

Still gonna try to get the Western Conference done before the games tip off Tuesday night. No decision on if we're playing any of these totals, but if we do, we'll be sure to post them.