Basketball and hockey for tonight, and three early picks for tomorrow's football, all lines from Matchbook:
NBA:
Blazers +1.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
75% of the wagerline folks are on the Spurs. That is not a typo - 75%. Without Manu, the Spurs are Duncan and Parker, and then nobody. I love the injury report that says "Oberto - out (heart)." I thought Eddy Curry and Vince Carter had the patent on missing games because of heart. And holy shit, Greg Oden is out! Well, he didn't play all of last season, and Portland was still pretty good. Can't believe the Spurs are favored.
NHL
Chicago -120, 0.6 units to win 0.5 units
Vancouver +152, 0.5 units to win 0.76 units
There are only two games tonight, so I just flipped a coin for each. I should start a tout service. Those are both lies, but the first one isn't all that far off.
College Football
Arkansas State +23.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Alabama gets caught looking ahead to next week's big game at LSU. They win, but not by this much against a Red Wolves team that's a lot better than you might think.
Iowa State +30 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
65% of wagerline on Oklahoma State after hanging tough with Texas last week, but the line has moved in the opposite direction. And, damn, Iowa State just isn't that bad.
Pittsburgh +4.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
It's always fun to fade Notre Dame, but it's even nicer when you get to back the better team AND you're getting points. Nice.
Unless I suffer illness/injury/power outage, there will be definitely be more additions tomorrow. Almost played the Sixers tonight as well, but just couldn't pull the trigger. I'm sure I'll regret that decision.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Week 9 in the NFL
Let's get right to it.
Green Bay Packers +4.5 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
I mentioned this game earlier in my midseason review of the win total bets. Pack is getting healthy coming off a bye, Titans played Monday night. The Thursday injury report (from Wednesday's practices) told me everything I need to know. The Packers had nobody listed as OUT and only a few players (none of them stars) who missed practice or were limited at practice. The Titans? No injury report ... because they hadn't practiced yet coming off the Monday night win. This is a 1 PM start on Sunday. By then, one of these teams will have been off the field for two weeks, and the other will have been off for five days. I just don't see the Titans running away from the Packers here. It may be worthwhile to consider the money line, but for now we'll just take the points.
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
The Jags have been getting a lot of love lately from the public, which is surprising when you look at their results to date and realize that they haven't really accomplished anything that's remotely impressive. They have two semi-decent road wins in close games against teams that aren't as good as their reputations (Indy and Denver). They have yet to win a game by more than 7 points this season.
This play is far more about the fact that the Jags are simply not a team that should give more than a touchdown on the road. But if you insist on some Bengals analysis, I will say that I think their result at Houston last week was an anomaly. The Pittsburgh game was 17-10 in the fourth before events conspired to blow it open, and most of their other losses have been decent fights.
Seattle Seahawks +6.5 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units.
this play is based on line movement. Seahawks opened at +7, 73% of Wagerline is on Philly, and yet the line has moved a half-point (and a crucial half-point at that) in Seattle's favor. Something's rotten in Denmark, and we want in.
Philly is getting too much love as one of the vaunted NFC East powerhouses, ignoring the fact that they are, in my mind, the weakest of the four. Seattle is not good. Let's be clear on that. But as it becomes painfully clear that their entire division is not very good, the team and the fans might see that, incredibly, they still have a shot at the playoffs for Holmgren's farewell tour. I think the Seattle home field advantage, recognized as one of the best in the league, makes this a close one.
New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys Under 41 (multiple), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
People seem to love playing the over in these big nationally televised 4 PM games. I can't figure it out. 70% are on the Over according to Wagerline, which seems like an astronomical number for an over/under. Of course, the lines haven't moved. So take that for what it's worth.
In the two games since Romo went down, the Cowboys have scored 14 and 13 points. And now Witten's got a cracked rib. I don't see how they're planning to move the ball. As for the Giants, well, this is clearly a good team. But Manning hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in a month. This is a power running team first (they lead the league in rushing), with a decent passing game to complement it. I think they'll keep the clock running and keep the point total low.
Green Bay Packers +4.5 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
I mentioned this game earlier in my midseason review of the win total bets. Pack is getting healthy coming off a bye, Titans played Monday night. The Thursday injury report (from Wednesday's practices) told me everything I need to know. The Packers had nobody listed as OUT and only a few players (none of them stars) who missed practice or were limited at practice. The Titans? No injury report ... because they hadn't practiced yet coming off the Monday night win. This is a 1 PM start on Sunday. By then, one of these teams will have been off the field for two weeks, and the other will have been off for five days. I just don't see the Titans running away from the Packers here. It may be worthwhile to consider the money line, but for now we'll just take the points.
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
The Jags have been getting a lot of love lately from the public, which is surprising when you look at their results to date and realize that they haven't really accomplished anything that's remotely impressive. They have two semi-decent road wins in close games against teams that aren't as good as their reputations (Indy and Denver). They have yet to win a game by more than 7 points this season.
This play is far more about the fact that the Jags are simply not a team that should give more than a touchdown on the road. But if you insist on some Bengals analysis, I will say that I think their result at Houston last week was an anomaly. The Pittsburgh game was 17-10 in the fourth before events conspired to blow it open, and most of their other losses have been decent fights.
Seattle Seahawks +6.5 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units.
this play is based on line movement. Seahawks opened at +7, 73% of Wagerline is on Philly, and yet the line has moved a half-point (and a crucial half-point at that) in Seattle's favor. Something's rotten in Denmark, and we want in.
Philly is getting too much love as one of the vaunted NFC East powerhouses, ignoring the fact that they are, in my mind, the weakest of the four. Seattle is not good. Let's be clear on that. But as it becomes painfully clear that their entire division is not very good, the team and the fans might see that, incredibly, they still have a shot at the playoffs for Holmgren's farewell tour. I think the Seattle home field advantage, recognized as one of the best in the league, makes this a close one.
New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys Under 41 (multiple), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
People seem to love playing the over in these big nationally televised 4 PM games. I can't figure it out. 70% are on the Over according to Wagerline, which seems like an astronomical number for an over/under. Of course, the lines haven't moved. So take that for what it's worth.
In the two games since Romo went down, the Cowboys have scored 14 and 13 points. And now Witten's got a cracked rib. I don't see how they're planning to move the ball. As for the Giants, well, this is clearly a good team. But Manning hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in a month. This is a power running team first (they lead the league in rushing), with a decent passing game to complement it. I think they'll keep the clock running and keep the point total low.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Are We Missing Any Sports Tonight?
Pinnacle usually has lines on table tennis and Magic the Gathering, so I might be back later with some additions. For now, tonight's action, all lines from Matchbook:
College Football
Cincinnati +2.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
I'm probably pushing my luck after actually cashing a Tuesday night game this week, but I'm not all that worried about the possibility of freshman Chazz Anderson playing QB for Cincy. He's played decently in two starts earlier this month, but there's a lot of hand-wringing around the 'net because of his poor performance after coming off the bench last week after an injury to Pike. Don't tell my wife I'm pulling against her Bulls.
NBA
Bobcats +9.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Cleveland couldn't beat this same team by double-digits in 4 tries last year, and I don't think Mo Williams is going to make quite as much of a difference as the Cavs think. Pretty good team in Charlotte when everybody's healthy, which is very, very rare, I admit.
Hornets/Suns Under 198 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Sets up nicely with the "run-and-gun" Suns, who are actually trying to focus more on defense under Coach Porter (although they don't have great defensive personnel) facing Chris Paul's Hornets who played a high-scoring game vs. the Warriors in their opener (108-103). That score was more a function of the Warriors running style and zero defense than the Hornets, who ranked #5 in the league last season in points allowed.
NHL
Minnesota +110, 0.5 units to win 0.55 units
Columbus +162, 0.5 units to win 0.81 units
Since I can't name any of the players, maybe I'll just go with the silliest mascots. Tonight - the "Wild" and the "Blue Jackets." They must be tough, right? It's like Johnny Cash's "Boy Named Sue" who had to be a good fighter because of the girly name. Yep, if you're looking for solid statistical hockey analysis, you have come to the right place.
College Football
Cincinnati +2.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
I'm probably pushing my luck after actually cashing a Tuesday night game this week, but I'm not all that worried about the possibility of freshman Chazz Anderson playing QB for Cincy. He's played decently in two starts earlier this month, but there's a lot of hand-wringing around the 'net because of his poor performance after coming off the bench last week after an injury to Pike. Don't tell my wife I'm pulling against her Bulls.
NBA
Bobcats +9.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Cleveland couldn't beat this same team by double-digits in 4 tries last year, and I don't think Mo Williams is going to make quite as much of a difference as the Cavs think. Pretty good team in Charlotte when everybody's healthy, which is very, very rare, I admit.
Hornets/Suns Under 198 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Sets up nicely with the "run-and-gun" Suns, who are actually trying to focus more on defense under Coach Porter (although they don't have great defensive personnel) facing Chris Paul's Hornets who played a high-scoring game vs. the Warriors in their opener (108-103). That score was more a function of the Warriors running style and zero defense than the Hornets, who ranked #5 in the league last season in points allowed.
NHL
Minnesota +110, 0.5 units to win 0.55 units
Columbus +162, 0.5 units to win 0.81 units
Since I can't name any of the players, maybe I'll just go with the silliest mascots. Tonight - the "Wild" and the "Blue Jackets." They must be tough, right? It's like Johnny Cash's "Boy Named Sue" who had to be a good fighter because of the girly name. Yep, if you're looking for solid statistical hockey analysis, you have come to the right place.
Counting Down to Pitchers and Catchers
It is my unfortunate guess that the Rays, with their mix of a history of 100+ game losing seasons and PECOTA-friendly youth, were a unique opportunity for futures betting, not to mention game-to-game value for the first few weeks of the season.
But that won't stop me from taking the earliest possible look at 2009 to try to find "next year's Rays." Especially because The D.C. Sports Bog was kind enough to post the 2009 World Series Lines from BetUS. Obviously I wouldn't think about laying down any cash until next March. Not only do you want to see how retirement/free agency/injuries shake out, but also because a year is a long time to lock up your money.
Nevertheless, it's worth taking an early look at these to eye up some possibilities because I for one plan to be ready to pounce on futures and win total over/under bets as soon as PECOTA comes out for the 2009 season. Nate Silver's getting a little too famous for my tastes, and I'm worried that next year the lines might move a lot more based on his projections.
Taking a look at the above lines (I can't line-shop at the office) as compared to the 2008 adjusted standings, one team jumps out as obvious value: the Cleveland Indians at 30-1. They've got an adjusted record of 84.1- 77.9. Furthermore, they earned at record despite being bit by the injury bug worse than most, and despite trading away front-line talent to contenders in deadline (or in their case, pre-deadline) deals.
More importantly, the Indians, like the Rays, have a ton of young talent that will all be in that mid-20s range when we tend to see the most breakouts. Here's a list of talented Indians who will be in that range when next season begins:
Fausto Carmona
Jhonny Peralta
Matt LaPorta (a future non-steroid-laden Travis Hafner)
Aaron Laffey
You can stop right there, add on the regulars, and be more than happy with the Indians' outlook for 2009, but there's more:
Rafael Perez (the sort of young bullpen arm every team craves)
Adam Miller/Chuck Lofgren (I'm assuming one of them will end up being a force, so together they get one entry)
Wes Hodges
Jensen Lewis
Andy Marte (I know, I know, but worth mentioning just for the mere possibility that he turns it around)
Shin-Soo Choo (probably a fluke season, but I still gotta mention him, plus it's an awesome name)
Add to that the fact that their none of their three established stars, Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, are at an age when their production would be expected to decline. And there's no reason Garko and several other guys can't just keep doing their thing. In fact, the only 2008 Indians regular I see entering the attrition danger zone is Kobayashi.
And then, for good measure, take a look at the ages of the best players on the roster of the only team that finished ahead of them in their division, the Chicago White Sox. It's almost impossible to underestimate this factor. I fully expect to be playing the Under on the White Sox win total next year for big money. The Twins are always worth talking about, but this is also the front office that ran Livan Hernandez out to the mound every five days in the midst of a pennant chase while Francisco Liriano was throwing two-hitters every start in the minors. So there's that.
Anyway, in my estimation, the Indians are 50/50 to win the AL Central next year. Combine that with the generic 1 in 8 postseason odds and you're left with 15-1 or thereabouts for World Series odds. Plenty of value at 30-1.
Comments welcome and encouraged here. I'd particularly like to hear from Indians fans that can speak to their prospects and/or the front office attitude towards any free agent signings.
But that won't stop me from taking the earliest possible look at 2009 to try to find "next year's Rays." Especially because The D.C. Sports Bog was kind enough to post the 2009 World Series Lines from BetUS. Obviously I wouldn't think about laying down any cash until next March. Not only do you want to see how retirement/free agency/injuries shake out, but also because a year is a long time to lock up your money.
Nevertheless, it's worth taking an early look at these to eye up some possibilities because I for one plan to be ready to pounce on futures and win total over/under bets as soon as PECOTA comes out for the 2009 season. Nate Silver's getting a little too famous for my tastes, and I'm worried that next year the lines might move a lot more based on his projections.
Taking a look at the above lines (I can't line-shop at the office) as compared to the 2008 adjusted standings, one team jumps out as obvious value: the Cleveland Indians at 30-1. They've got an adjusted record of 84.1- 77.9. Furthermore, they earned at record despite being bit by the injury bug worse than most, and despite trading away front-line talent to contenders in deadline (or in their case, pre-deadline) deals.
More importantly, the Indians, like the Rays, have a ton of young talent that will all be in that mid-20s range when we tend to see the most breakouts. Here's a list of talented Indians who will be in that range when next season begins:
Fausto Carmona
Jhonny Peralta
Matt LaPorta (a future non-steroid-laden Travis Hafner)
Aaron Laffey
You can stop right there, add on the regulars, and be more than happy with the Indians' outlook for 2009, but there's more:
Rafael Perez (the sort of young bullpen arm every team craves)
Adam Miller/Chuck Lofgren (I'm assuming one of them will end up being a force, so together they get one entry)
Wes Hodges
Jensen Lewis
Andy Marte (I know, I know, but worth mentioning just for the mere possibility that he turns it around)
Shin-Soo Choo (probably a fluke season, but I still gotta mention him, plus it's an awesome name)
Add to that the fact that their none of their three established stars, Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, are at an age when their production would be expected to decline. And there's no reason Garko and several other guys can't just keep doing their thing. In fact, the only 2008 Indians regular I see entering the attrition danger zone is Kobayashi.
And then, for good measure, take a look at the ages of the best players on the roster of the only team that finished ahead of them in their division, the Chicago White Sox. It's almost impossible to underestimate this factor. I fully expect to be playing the Under on the White Sox win total next year for big money. The Twins are always worth talking about, but this is also the front office that ran Livan Hernandez out to the mound every five days in the midst of a pennant chase while Francisco Liriano was throwing two-hitters every start in the minors. So there's that.
Anyway, in my estimation, the Indians are 50/50 to win the AL Central next year. Combine that with the generic 1 in 8 postseason odds and you're left with 15-1 or thereabouts for World Series odds. Plenty of value at 30-1.
Comments welcome and encouraged here. I'd particularly like to hear from Indians fans that can speak to their prospects and/or the front office attitude towards any free agent signings.
10 Early College Football Leans
As always, these are just based on the early wagerline picks and line movements:
Kent State +6.5 at Bowling Green
Virginia -2.5 vs. Miami
Iowa State +31 at Oklahoma State
Pittsburgh +4.5 at Notre Dame
Utah State +7 vs. Hawaii
Tennessee +6 at South Carolina
Kansas State +10.5 at Kansas
Wisconsin +4.5 at Michigan State
Clemson +4 at Boston College
Arkansas State +22.5 at Alabama
There were a few others that could have been listed (Tulane, Temple, etc.). At first glance, a much better looking card than the past 2-3 weeks. Suggestions, tips, information always welcome.
Kent State +6.5 at Bowling Green
Virginia -2.5 vs. Miami
Iowa State +31 at Oklahoma State
Pittsburgh +4.5 at Notre Dame
Utah State +7 vs. Hawaii
Tennessee +6 at South Carolina
Kansas State +10.5 at Kansas
Wisconsin +4.5 at Michigan State
Clemson +4 at Boston College
Arkansas State +22.5 at Alabama
There were a few others that could have been listed (Tulane, Temple, etc.). At first glance, a much better looking card than the past 2-3 weeks. Suggestions, tips, information always welcome.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
First NBA Pick of the Season (and a hockey guess)
Nothing looked good last night in the NBA, but tonight we found one we like. Also, one of those games they play on ice:
NBA
Suns +2.5 -114 (Matchbook), 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Over 60% of the bets coming in on the Spurs, but the line retreated from Spurs -3 to Spurs -2 at most books, which is the kind of thing we always notice. Also, I just like the Suns lineup better, especially with Manu sitting out for a while. Who is Oberto going to cover? Seriously. Duncan can't guard Amare and Shaq at the same time. Diaw and Barbosa coming off the bench is nice, too.
NHL
Minnesota +126 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Their nickname is apparently "the Wild." I wonder what their mascot looks like.
NBA
Suns +2.5 -114 (Matchbook), 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Over 60% of the bets coming in on the Spurs, but the line retreated from Spurs -3 to Spurs -2 at most books, which is the kind of thing we always notice. Also, I just like the Suns lineup better, especially with Manu sitting out for a while. Who is Oberto going to cover? Seriously. Duncan can't guard Amare and Shaq at the same time. Diaw and Barbosa coming off the bench is nice, too.
NHL
Minnesota +126 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Their nickname is apparently "the Wild." I wonder what their mascot looks like.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
NBA Win Totals - The Official Picks
Can't find my blog partner today, so I hope he's OK with these season-long win totals picks. All lines from WSEX, all to win 3 units:
Spurs Under 48.5 wins -105
Jazz Over 51.5 wins -125
Knicks Under 32.5 wins -120
I've already talked about all the win totals within the past week, so I'll spare you the rehash. Good luck this season, everybody.
Just Trying Something - Part 2
Don't really like any of the NBA games tonight, which is a little depressing since it's opening night, so I thought I'd try this hockey crap again:
Tampa Bay +110 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.55 units
I think they're called the Lightning. That's all I know.
Tampa Bay +110 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.55 units
I think they're called the Lightning. That's all I know.
Marshalling Our Assets
These Tuesday night college football games are going to be the death of us:
Marshall +7 +104 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Once again this week, we have the books and/or sharp money clearly on the opposite side of the general public. These teams are both pretty awful, except that Houston has a potent passing attack. Hopefully, the receivers will be distracted by all the banjos playing in the crowd or maybe the snow that might start falling in the second half. Hoping for the home team to keep it close.
Marshall +7 +104 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Once again this week, we have the books and/or sharp money clearly on the opposite side of the general public. These teams are both pretty awful, except that Houston has a potent passing attack. Hopefully, the receivers will be distracted by all the banjos playing in the crowd or maybe the snow that might start falling in the second half. Hoping for the home team to keep it close.
Monday, October 27, 2008
NBA Win Totals - Western Conference
I was planning on doing every division in a separate post, like I did with the Atlantic, Central, and Southeast already. But, life gets in the way, and with the season starting Tuesday night, I'm putting the Western Conference all together in one marathon post. Not as much rambling from me on any particular team, but you'll get the recap of last year's numbers and any significant offseason changes for each one. Let's get it on:
*Pacific Division*
Golden State Warriors
Over/Under: 37.5 wins
2007-08 record: 48-34
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 48-34 (points per game differential = +2.2 pts)
Lost Baron Davis and Michael Pietrus, but added Corey Maggette, Ronny Turiaf, and Marcus Williams. A lot is going to depend on how well Williams can hold down the point until Monta Ellis returns from his 30-game suspension for lying about his moped accident (what an idiot, at least Jay Williams got hurt on a full-grown motorcycle). Same as always, this team scores over 100 points every night, but plays no defense. I lean slightly over, but not quite as many wins as last year.
Los Angeles Clippers
Over/Under: 34.5 wins
2007-08 record: 23-59
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 19-63 (ppg diff. = -7.3 pts)
A complete overhaul on this team in the offseason. The Clippers lost their 2 best players, Brand and Maggette, but added Baron Davis, Marcus Camby, Jason Williams (White Chocolate!), Ricky Davis, and rookie Eric Gordon. Whew. I won't even pretend to guess at how this turns out. History says badly, but who the hell knows?
Los Angeles Lakers
Over/Under: 54.5 wins
2007-08 record: 57-25
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 62-20 (ppg diff. = +7.3 pts)
No real losses, other than starting towel-waver Ronny Turiaf leaving for Golden State as mentioned above. On the plus side (or was that Turiaf thing a plus also?), Andrew Bynum is supposed to be healthy. I'm sure I'll be in the minority on this one, but I think this one will actually go Under despite Bynum. I think the Lakers will be very careful with Kobe with the still-injured finger and after getting a scare a few days ago with the hyper-extended knee. Also, I hate their bench (Vujacic, Walton, Mihm, yuck).
Phoenix Suns
Over/Under: 46.5 wins
2007-08 record: 55-27
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 56-26 (ppg diff. = +5.0 pts)
No significant moves, which means there's still no backup for Nash at point guard or for Shaq at center, and no, I'm not counting Dragic (who?) or Robin "Sideshow Bob" Lopez. If everybody stays healthy, there's no reason to suspect they will win 10 fewer games, but I'm not gonna count on everybody staying healthy on this aging squad. Hey, if this basketball thing doesn't work out, they could always film Cocoon III during the practices.
Sacramento Kings
Over/Under: 28.5 wins
2007-08 record: 38-44
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 34-48 (ppg diff. = -2.3 pts)
I still can't figure out how this team won over 30 games last season. Without Artest, I can't imagine them breaking 25 wins.
*Southwest Division*
Dallas Mavericks
Over/Under: 46.5 wins
2007-08 record: 51-31
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 56-26 (ppg diff. = +4.5 pts)
No bench, no center, and a starting small forward with no brain. It would take a big step back to go Under, but I lean toward a big step back this year.
Houston Rockets
Over/Under: 53.5 wins
2007-08 record: 55-27
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 57-25 (ppg diff. = +4.7 pts)
Look, Ron Artest is crazy. There's no debate about that. But, the dude can play - 20.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists last year. I guess this line reflects the fear that Ron Ron will ruin this team's chemistry, but we didn't hear much from him on a terrible Kings team, and I don't think he'll be a distraction. I would like them better if they found a backup for Yao, because Landry and Dorsey just aren't big enough, but I think this team goes Over pretty easily (of course, the second after I post this, T-Mac's spine will collapse or something).
Memphis Grizzlies
Over/Under: 22.5 wins
2007-08 record: 22-60
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 22-60 (ppg diff. = -6.2 pts)
I don't think O.J. Mayo is going to make a lot of difference in the fortunes of the Grizz this year. Line looks about right. Do they have grizzly bears in Tennessee?
New Orleans Hornets
Over/Under: 51.5 wins
2007-08 record: 56-26
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 58-24 (ppg diff. = +5.3 pts)
If you listen to enough of the talking heads out there talk about James Posey and his magical championship mojo, I guess the Hornets can't lose this year. Actually, I think their fortunes are much more strongly tied to the 3-point shooting of Peja and Mo-Pete. Love Chris Paul (ever since he punched Julius Hodge in the junk in college), but I can't quite recommend the Over here. Line is pretty sharp on this one.
San Antonio Spurs
Over/Under: 48.5 wins
2007-08 record: 56-26
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 57-25 (ppg diff. = +4.8 pts)
I probably could have saved that Cocoon III crack for this team. The Spurs really did nothing important over the offseason, other than watch Ginobli get hurt, and I think he's going to miss half the season. Like Dallas, it would take a big step back to hit the Under, but I think that's exactly what happens.
*Northwest Division*
Denver Nuggets
Over/Under: 40.5 wins
2007-08 record: 50-32
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 52-30 (ppg diff. = +3.7 pts)
Is the addition of "The Birdman" enough to make up for the loss of Camby and Najera? Probably not. They get to play Oklahoma City four times, so they've got that going for them, which is nice.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Over/Under: 30.5 wins
2007-08 record: 22-60
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 20-62 (ppg diff. = -6.8 pts)
No big losses, but added Kevin Love, Mike Miller, and Rodney Carney, all of whom will probably be starting this season. I think this team has improved itself, but with so much youth playing significant roles, I can't see them breaking 30 wins. Under.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Over/Under: 25.5 wins
2007-08 record: 20-62
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 16-66 (ppg diff. = -8.8 pts)
The worst team in the league did nothing of real consequence this summer. Pathetic. Other than Kevin Durant, their starting lineup is Earl Watson, Jeff Green, Chris Wilcox, and Nick Collison. Are they kidding? Another Under. They'll be lucky to get to 20 wins.
Portland Trailblazers
Over/Under: 44.5 wins
2007-08 record: 41-41
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 38-44 (ppg diff. = -1.0 pts)
Added Diogu, Bayless, and Rudy Fernandez, and finally get Oden on the court for at least the first game. Jarrett Jack and James Jones were nice young players, but they won't really be missed. The Over looks a little too easy on this one. I'll say they end up right about 40 wins like last year.
Utah Jazz
Over/Under: 51.5 wins
2007-08 record: 54-28
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 62-20 (ppg diff. = +6.9 pts)
Holy polygamy, look at the Pythagorean number! Eight wins better than the actual record last year. That's pretty strong, which means Utah saw a fair share of bad luck last season. Roster pretty much the same, but with an even deeper bench. Jazz sail Over the total pretty easily this season.
Enjoy the new season, folks.
Just Trying Something - Hockey Edition
Like the guy who writes one of our favorite blogs (The Money Line Journal), we don't know a damn thing about hockey. I actually have an NHL team in my town, and I think I've been to 2 games in my life, and those were only because I got free tickets from somebody. I don't know what the blue lines are for, and I don't know what the penalties are (I know one is called "icing" but I don't know what it is - somebody once told me it has something to do with the blue lines I mentioned before). So, like Money Line, we're going to see if we can make winning picks, or at least tread water, just based on the betting numbers and line movements, and maybe looking at just a couple of key stats if I can figure out which ones are significant. When I started playing baseball games many years ago, I couldn't name more than 5-6 players, but you can still win if you put in the effort and don't suffer too much rotten luck. With all that said, here are the first two guesses:
Ottawa +140 (WSEX), 0.5 units to win 0.7 units
Boston +124 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.62 units
Keeping the amounts low until I see how this goes......
Halfway Home: Checking On Our Win Total Bets
As we continue to struggle around the break-even mark in the NFL week to week, I thought the eight week mark would be a good time to check the status of our multi-unit win total bets. And to remind everyone that follows our advice that regardless of our week-to-week balance, if you made the win total bets, you're probably gonna win a shitload of money this NFL season. I'm certainly looking forward to it.
Baltimore Ravens Over 6 Wins -120 (WSEX), 3.6 units to win 3 units
Team Record: 4-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: About as tough as an AFC North schedule can get.
Chance of Payoff: Pretty good.
The hurricane-related Week Two bye at Houston was a stroke of bad luck for the Ravens (and the people of Houston, I guess). The Ravens have three straight road games over the next three weeks as a result. I expect them to be about even-money or possibly slight underdogs in the first two (at Cleveland, at Houston) and a heavy underdog in the last one (at New York).
If the Ravens can just get one victory out of this tough three-game stretch, payout on this wager will be a lock. The last six are no walk in the park, but they get four of six at home, and they get to visit Cincinnati. Bottom line- one win in the next three equals a likely payout. Otherwise, there's a semi-decent chance of a push, although a win would still be very much possible. Almost no chance of losing this investment.
Green Bay Packers Over 8 Wins -130 (WSEX), 5.2 units to win 4 units
Team Record: 4-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Relatively tough road.
Chance of Payoff: 50/50, although a loss seems doubtful.
It's surprising that this is the weakest of the five plays, since it was the one I liked the most, and the first two weeks did nothing to sway me from that position. Unfortunately, the Pack, like the Ravens, have a tough road over the next few weeks. Next week they play the Titans in Tennessee. This is a likely loss, although there's reason to be optimistic about a noon central time start after the Titans play a Monday night game this week while the Pack is on bye. Jeff Fisher should file a complaint about that one.
Anyway, assuming they're 4-4, we'd need a 5-3 record over the last eight to win. They'll likely be slight favorites in three of the four home games and slight underdogs in all four road games. The ace in the hole is the home game Week 17 vs. the Lions. With that in the pocket, it's hard to envision them not winning at least 4 or the last 8 for a push on this wager. 5-3 or better for the payoff obviously is a taller order. As I mentioned before, a road win at Tennesee next week is not unthinkable given the scheduling screwjob on the Titans. Let's hope Favre isn't friends with Titans' management.
Detroit Lions Under 6.5 Wins +100 (WSEX), 3 units to win 3 units
Team Record: 0-7
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Does it matter?
Chance of Payoff: 99.9%.
"Lock" is considered a dirty word in the gambling community. But I'll use it here. This one's a lock. If you want to make in interesting, try to figure out if they will lose ten (thus guaranteeing a payoff on this wager) before their annual Thanksgiving Day game.
Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins +105 (Matchbook), 3 units to win 3.15 units
Team Record: 5-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Strong. Let's leave it at that.
Chance of Payoff: A lot better than it looked three weeks ago. I'd say 80%.
It sure would have been nice if the Bucs had been able to punch it in at the end of the game in Dallas yesterday. A win by Tampa would have virtually guaranteed that these last two win total wagers would pay out. As it is, they both still look pretty good. The Cowboys would have to go 6-2 over their final eight games to reach 11 wins. They are virtually assured of being underdogs in at least three of those games (at NYG, at WAS, at PIT), and will be underdogs or small favorites in at least two more (home vs. NYG, at PHI). They do get two easy ones in Weeks 12 and 13 when they host Seattle and San Francisco. Moral of the story: don't get down on this wager if/when the Cowboys go 3-1 over their next four games to get to 8-4. They have a very tough road home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8 Wins -135 (Matchbook), 2.7 units to win 2 units
Team Record: 5-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Weak? Forgiving? Gentle? You choose your own adjective.
Chance of Payoff: Good. I'd say maybe 85%.
Again, yesterday's 13-9 loss to Dallas was a killer only in the sense that it kept us from locking up these last two bets before Halloween. The Bucs still look good. We need them to go 4-4 over the last half of the season to win (and keep in mind that 3-5 is good enough for a push). They go on the road to Kansas City this week before their Week 10 bye. So that's nice. They close with four of seven at home, including home games the last two weeks of the season vs. west coast teams (San Diego and Oakland), the latter of which will probably be trying to lose by then to improve draft position. The road games include a trip to Detroit along with journeys to Carolina and Atlanta.
I expect them to be favored in 5 or 6 of their remaining 8 games, and favored by more than a touchdown in 3 of them. They won't be underdogs by more than a field goal or so the rest of the way, except possibly when they visit Carolina. This one's not over by a long shot, but I like where it's heading.
Baltimore Ravens Over 6 Wins -120 (WSEX), 3.6 units to win 3 units
Team Record: 4-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: About as tough as an AFC North schedule can get.
Chance of Payoff: Pretty good.
The hurricane-related Week Two bye at Houston was a stroke of bad luck for the Ravens (and the people of Houston, I guess). The Ravens have three straight road games over the next three weeks as a result. I expect them to be about even-money or possibly slight underdogs in the first two (at Cleveland, at Houston) and a heavy underdog in the last one (at New York).
If the Ravens can just get one victory out of this tough three-game stretch, payout on this wager will be a lock. The last six are no walk in the park, but they get four of six at home, and they get to visit Cincinnati. Bottom line- one win in the next three equals a likely payout. Otherwise, there's a semi-decent chance of a push, although a win would still be very much possible. Almost no chance of losing this investment.
Green Bay Packers Over 8 Wins -130 (WSEX), 5.2 units to win 4 units
Team Record: 4-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Relatively tough road.
Chance of Payoff: 50/50, although a loss seems doubtful.
It's surprising that this is the weakest of the five plays, since it was the one I liked the most, and the first two weeks did nothing to sway me from that position. Unfortunately, the Pack, like the Ravens, have a tough road over the next few weeks. Next week they play the Titans in Tennessee. This is a likely loss, although there's reason to be optimistic about a noon central time start after the Titans play a Monday night game this week while the Pack is on bye. Jeff Fisher should file a complaint about that one.
Anyway, assuming they're 4-4, we'd need a 5-3 record over the last eight to win. They'll likely be slight favorites in three of the four home games and slight underdogs in all four road games. The ace in the hole is the home game Week 17 vs. the Lions. With that in the pocket, it's hard to envision them not winning at least 4 or the last 8 for a push on this wager. 5-3 or better for the payoff obviously is a taller order. As I mentioned before, a road win at Tennesee next week is not unthinkable given the scheduling screwjob on the Titans. Let's hope Favre isn't friends with Titans' management.
Detroit Lions Under 6.5 Wins +100 (WSEX), 3 units to win 3 units
Team Record: 0-7
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Does it matter?
Chance of Payoff: 99.9%.
"Lock" is considered a dirty word in the gambling community. But I'll use it here. This one's a lock. If you want to make in interesting, try to figure out if they will lose ten (thus guaranteeing a payoff on this wager) before their annual Thanksgiving Day game.
Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins +105 (Matchbook), 3 units to win 3.15 units
Team Record: 5-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Strong. Let's leave it at that.
Chance of Payoff: A lot better than it looked three weeks ago. I'd say 80%.
It sure would have been nice if the Bucs had been able to punch it in at the end of the game in Dallas yesterday. A win by Tampa would have virtually guaranteed that these last two win total wagers would pay out. As it is, they both still look pretty good. The Cowboys would have to go 6-2 over their final eight games to reach 11 wins. They are virtually assured of being underdogs in at least three of those games (at NYG, at WAS, at PIT), and will be underdogs or small favorites in at least two more (home vs. NYG, at PHI). They do get two easy ones in Weeks 12 and 13 when they host Seattle and San Francisco. Moral of the story: don't get down on this wager if/when the Cowboys go 3-1 over their next four games to get to 8-4. They have a very tough road home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8 Wins -135 (Matchbook), 2.7 units to win 2 units
Team Record: 5-3
Strengh of Remaining Schedule: Weak? Forgiving? Gentle? You choose your own adjective.
Chance of Payoff: Good. I'd say maybe 85%.
Again, yesterday's 13-9 loss to Dallas was a killer only in the sense that it kept us from locking up these last two bets before Halloween. The Bucs still look good. We need them to go 4-4 over the last half of the season to win (and keep in mind that 3-5 is good enough for a push). They go on the road to Kansas City this week before their Week 10 bye. So that's nice. They close with four of seven at home, including home games the last two weeks of the season vs. west coast teams (San Diego and Oakland), the latter of which will probably be trying to lose by then to improve draft position. The road games include a trip to Detroit along with journeys to Carolina and Atlanta.
I expect them to be favored in 5 or 6 of their remaining 8 games, and favored by more than a touchdown in 3 of them. They won't be underdogs by more than a field goal or so the rest of the way, except possibly when they visit Carolina. This one's not over by a long shot, but I like where it's heading.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Tale of the Tape - World Series Game 4
I had planned to do this for Game 3 as well, but I really thought it was going to be rained out. As with game 2, this is just a quick listing of some of the key stats for tonight's game for those of you who might not have time to do all of homework:
Pitchers (2008 stats)
Stat: _ Blanton / Sonnanstine
K/BB: _ 1.68 / 3.35
WHIP: _ 1.40 / 1.29
K/9: _ 5.05 / 5.77
ERA: _ 4.69 / 4.38
FIP: _ 4.52 / 3.91
BB/9: _ 3.01 / 1.72
HR/9: _ 1.00 / 0.98
Hitters (2008 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers [through the league championship series])
Phillies . . . . . . . . . . Rays
J. Rollins .790 . . . A. Iwamura .756
J. Werth .767 . . . . B. Upton .769
C. Utley .932 . . . . C. Pena .994
R Howard .967 . . . . E. Longoria .890
P. Burrell .843 . . . C. Crawford .754
S. Victorino .762 . . D. Navarro .767
P. Feliz .636 . . . . G. Gross .789
C. Ruiz .604 . . . . J. Bartlett .597
Lineups should look pretty much like that when they are announced. Phillies swap Werth and Victorino at the 2 & 6 spots some nights, and the Rays could play Baldelli in right field instead of Gross as they did in Game 2. Other than that, I think I've got it right (I still think it wouldn't be a bad idea for the Rays to start Zobrist at SS over Bartlett vs. righties, but they're making the decision to get defense over hitting there). Pitching matchup favors the Rays, and the hitting looks pretty even. Rays getting 62% at wagerline right now, which is a little worrisome if you're contemplating a play on Tampa. Back later if we play it.
NBA Win Totals - Southeast Division
We've done Atlantic and Central already, now let's finish off the Eastern Conference.
Atlanta Hawks
Over/Under: 36.5 wins
2007-08 record: 37-45
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 35-47 (points per game differential = -1.8 pts)
The big loss in Freaknik town was the defection of Josh Childress (11.8 pts, 4.9 reb) to Europe, which has led to a lot of the talking heads at ESPN wondering when Kobe will be leaving. The only real additions were Maurice Evans and Flip Murray. Still, Evans is decent (8.9 pts, 2.9 reb in Orlando last season), and Marvin Williams will probably get more minutes as well, and he's better than Childress, so Childress' loss is not exactly crippling or anything. The starting 5 is very solid, plus they get Bibby at point guard for the whole season instead of just a couple of months, and I think they're slightly improved this year. Slight lean to the Over.
Charlotte Bobcats
Over/Under: 36.5 wins
2007-08 record: 32-50
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 27-55 (ppg diff. = -4.4 pts)
Except for drafting DJ Augustin and pissing off Raymond Felton in the process, it doesn't look like this team did much of anything this offseason. There were plenty of former UNC Tarheels out there that they could have signed or traded for, since the team is slowly becoming an alumni association (and now Jordan brings in Larry Brown), and I can't understand how they just do nothing. I'm not sure how standing still is going to get them a 10-win improvement over last year's Pythagorean number, especially in what has become a really tough division. Under.
Miami Heat
Over/Under: 37.5 wins
2007-08 record: 15-67
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 15-67 (ppg diff. = -8.6 pts)
It's hard to forecast how much improvement a team is going to see after they spent last season tanking away all of their games. From last year, they lose Jason Williams (White Chocolate!) and Ricky Davis as they are shedding their big contracts to position themselves to pursue Carlos Boozer in free agency (you're next, Marion). The additions are pretty big: college stud Michael Beasley, plus a healthy and determined Dwyane Wade. The Chinese may have an unnatural affection for Kobe, but I watched a lot of the Olympic basketball games, and there wasn't a player in the tournament better than Wade. Still, with the total set 22.5 wins above last year's results, I don't have the balls to even hazard a lean on this one.
Orlando Magic
Over/Under: 47.5 wins
2007-08 record: 52-30
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 58-24 (ppg diff. = +5.5 pts)
Far and away the class of the division, the Magic only made a couple of relatively minor moves: signing Michael Pietrus, and letting backup point guards Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling leave. Pietrus helps defensively (don't really need scoring anyway with Turkoglu, Lewis, and Superman), so I can't see them taking a step back this season. I don't like their bench at all, but it's pretty much the same as last year (let Redick play! let Redick play!). Gun to my head, I take the Over, even though it's a big number.
Washington Wizards
Over/Under: 38.5 wins
2007-08 record: 43-39
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 40-42 (ppg diff. = -0.3 wins)
Picked up Juan Dixon and let Roger Mason Jr. go, so no significant changes. Hard to tell what this team is going to do with Arenas injured again, and now Haywood sitting out as well (he's a Tarheel, so he can always go to Charlotte). Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will be forced to carry the load, and I'm not convinced they can keep doing it year after year. No easy wins in this division any more, and the conference is improved as a whole, so this looks like a definite Under to me.
Still gonna try to get the Western Conference done before the games tip off Tuesday night. No decision on if we're playing any of these totals, but if we do, we'll be sure to post them.
NFL Week 8 Continued
Our previous plays still look good. I'm adding one more this morning:
San Diego/New Orleans Under 47 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
65% of wagerline is on the over. I don't see it. San Diego hasn't showed me they're explosive enough to warrant a near-50-point over, and I think New Orleans' offense runs through Reggie Bush more than people realize. Plus we're going against the crowd according to the Wagerline data, and we're getting an extra point from BetUS, and we've got jetlag on our side.
San Diego/New Orleans Under 47 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
65% of wagerline is on the over. I don't see it. San Diego hasn't showed me they're explosive enough to warrant a near-50-point over, and I think New Orleans' offense runs through Reggie Bush more than people realize. Plus we're going against the crowd according to the Wagerline data, and we're getting an extra point from BetUS, and we've got jetlag on our side.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
College Football - Night Moves
Probably have played too many this week already, but along with Middle Tennessee State already posted yesterday, these are our plays for tonight, lines from Matchbook:
Tennessee +5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
If the past couple of weeks are any indication, teams are starting to figure out Bama's one-dimensional offense. Tennessee defense is tough, they just need the offense to put some points on the board tonight.
Arizona State +3.5 -110, 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Arizona State will be throwing the ball a lot tonight, because they can't run at all. Luckily, Oregon's pass defense is horrendous. Home team pulls this one out.
Good luck everybody.
Tennessee +5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
If the past couple of weeks are any indication, teams are starting to figure out Bama's one-dimensional offense. Tennessee defense is tough, they just need the offense to put some points on the board tonight.
Arizona State +3.5 -110, 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Arizona State will be throwing the ball a lot tonight, because they can't run at all. Luckily, Oregon's pass defense is horrendous. Home team pulls this one out.
Good luck everybody.
NBA Win Totals - Central Division
Posted the Atlantic Division a few days ago, now tackling the division of King James and Crazy 'Sheed.
Chicago Bulls
Over/Under: 40.5 wins
2007-08 record: 33-49
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 31-51 (points per game differential = -3.1 pts)
Considering the logjam at the guard spots (Rose, Hinrich, Gordon, Hughes, Sefolosha), and the question marks up front (Gooden, Noah, Thomas, Gray), it's surprising that the Bulls weren't able to move a guard for a better big man in the offseason. As it is, the roster looks like quite the mess, with Noah, Thomas, and Gray getting on-the-job training, and the guards constantly battling over playing time. I can't see how the upgrade from Chris Duhon to rookie Derrick Rose is going to add up to 8-10 wins. Rose should end up very good, but he shouldn't be expected to carry this team in his first year. Strong lean to the Under here.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over/Under: 47.5 wins
2007-08 record: 45-37
2007-08 Pythag. record: 40-42 (ppg diff. = -0.4 pts)
The significant offseason change is the addition of point guard Mo Williams from Milwaukee. Stop me if you've heard this one before (Hughes, Szczerbiak...), but Williams is supposed to be the Robin to Lebron's Batman, a second scorer to take some of the load off King James and help spread the floor. I agree Williams is a scoring upgrade over Boobie or Damon Jones, but he's not as good from the 3-point line as either one of them. If you want to open up the driving lanes for Lebron, it seems like you would want your long-range shooters on the floor. A lot depends on the health of Big Z and his injury-prone feet. If he's not playing, the Cavs are in trouble because Ben Wallace is done and Varejao is no more than an "energy guy" off the bench. If Lebron and Mo mesh early, and Ilgauskas remains healthy, they could see a slight improvemet, but there are too many "ifs" with this team for me, especially coming off a season where their opponents outscored them on the average night. Pass.
Detroit Pistons
Over/Under: 50.5
2007-08 record: 59-23
2007-08 Pythag. record: 64-18 (ppg diff. = +7.4 pts)
After promising big changes after the Pistons lost in the playoffs a few months ago, Joe Dumars followed through with the blockbuster signing of . . . Kwame Brown. Yeah. To quote Sarah Palin, "Say it ain't so, Joe." Still, there were no significant losses (apologies to Jarvis Hayes) from a 60-win team, plus there are young players ready to step up (Amir Johnson, Maxiell, Stuckey) and provide whatever extra assistance might be needed, so it's hard to imagine a 10-win reduction this year in a relatively easy division. The line looks surprisingly low, like the Celtics line, so I'm wondering if there's something going on that we don't know about yet.
Indiana Pacers
Over/Under: 35.5 wins
2007-08 record: 36-46
2007-08 Pythag. record: 36-46 (ppg diff. = -1.4 pts)
As Dennis Green might say, "They are who we thought they were!" The Pacers' Pythagorean record based on points scored and points allowed ended up exactly the same as their actual record, which seems pretty amazing to me over an 82 game season. Of course, the big difference from last year was the trade that sent Jermaine O'Neal to Toronto for TJ Ford. Although the Pacers frontline (Murphy, Foster, Nesterovic) is nothing to get excited about, I don't think they should have been expected to keep O'Neal and his 14 points & 7 rebounds per game around at the price tag of $21 million. The Pacers also picked up Jarrett Jack and Brandon Rush in the backcourt, so they are pretty solid there - sort of like the Bulls, but without the logjam that could lead to chemistry problems. All in all, I think the Pacers are slightly improved which causes me to lean to the Over. ESPN's Chad Ford, who is one of the few guys over there I still read, thinks Indy will be a playoff team this year, but I'm not quite that bullish on their prospects. Probably just a couple of games better than last year until they can get some more help in the middle.
Milwaukee
Over/Under: 30.5 wins
2007-08 record: 26-56
2007-08 Pythag. record: 20-62 (ppg diff. = -6.9 pts)
As discussed above, Mo Williams is now in Cleveland, and the Bucks have given up on the Yi experiment to acquire Richard Jefferson. Jefferson and Michael Redd can score a lot of points, but that's about it. There's nobody on the bench, and the step down Williams to Ridnour at the point is not going to help. I think the Bucks get outscored by a significant margin again this year, as they haven't addressed their defensive shortcomings, and they again end up with less than 30 wins. Under.
Up next: the Southeast
College Football - Afternoon Additions
Stayed up too late last night. Not much time for explanations of these, lines from Mathbook:
Toledo +3.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
The best part of Toledo's team is its pass defense, and they'll need it today against LeFevour and crew.
Kent State +3.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Or is it just Kent now? Either way, their running game keeps it close today. And, holy shit, look at that line movement. One of the most-lopsided games on the board betting-wise.
Back with a couple more before the day is done. Still waiting to see what the weather is going to do in Philly tonight.
Toledo +3.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
The best part of Toledo's team is its pass defense, and they'll need it today against LeFevour and crew.
Kent State +3.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Or is it just Kent now? Either way, their running game keeps it close today. And, holy shit, look at that line movement. One of the most-lopsided games on the board betting-wise.
Back with a couple more before the day is done. Still waiting to see what the weather is going to do in Philly tonight.
Friday, October 24, 2008
NFL Week 8
Not a lot to love this week. This is all we've got so far. No time now, but I'll add writeups later:
Miami +3 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Another funny BetUS line- this game is +1 or +1.5 elsewhere.
Cleveland Browns +7 +104 (Matchbook) 1 unit to win 1.04 units.
Also available at +7.5 -110 at BetUS.
Miami +3 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Another funny BetUS line- this game is +1 or +1.5 elsewhere.
Cleveland Browns +7 +104 (Matchbook) 1 unit to win 1.04 units.
Also available at +7.5 -110 at BetUS.
Friday Night Lights, Plus 3 for Saturday
OK, I think I've gotten all my whining done for a couple of hours. We're playing the Friday night game, and for those of you that asked (masochists), a few early picks for tomorrow, all lines from Matchbook:
Friday
San Jose State +7 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
Really stout defense so far this year from the Spartans. Boise State has a big public backing on this one, but no line movement at all. Boise just not as tough on a green field.
Saturday
SMU +12 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
SMU's defensive numbers look terrible, but they are a little skewed by a couple of games where they gave up huge yardage to some really powerful offenses (e.g. 693 yards to Texas Tech, 602 yards to Tulsa). SMU boasts a strong passing attack vs. Navy's lame pass defense. On the flipside, Navy does nothing but run on offense (and they admittedly do it well), which means they keep the clock moving.
Utah State +14.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Utah State is not good. But, neither is Fresno State. Squeaking past Toledo by one point in overtime, losing to Hawaii at home, beating Idaho by only 13 points - these results don't lead me to believe that Fresno should be laying a big number of points to anybody. Add in the big line move from -17.5 all the way down to -14.5 despite 70% of wagerline on Fresno, and there you have it. Fresno will have success running the ball, but they are terrible on defense (just about as bad as Utah State). Fresno wins, but not by this margin.
Middle Tennessee State +10 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
As I've said many times, I'm no mathematical genius, but I took out my calculator and slide rule, and determined that it is extremely difficult to beat somebody by double-digits if you don't score any points. Extremely difficult.
Back tomorrow with additions, and my partner should be on with an early NFL pick or two later as well. Good luck everybody.
Friday
San Jose State +7 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
Really stout defense so far this year from the Spartans. Boise State has a big public backing on this one, but no line movement at all. Boise just not as tough on a green field.
Saturday
SMU +12 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
SMU's defensive numbers look terrible, but they are a little skewed by a couple of games where they gave up huge yardage to some really powerful offenses (e.g. 693 yards to Texas Tech, 602 yards to Tulsa). SMU boasts a strong passing attack vs. Navy's lame pass defense. On the flipside, Navy does nothing but run on offense (and they admittedly do it well), which means they keep the clock moving.
Utah State +14.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Utah State is not good. But, neither is Fresno State. Squeaking past Toledo by one point in overtime, losing to Hawaii at home, beating Idaho by only 13 points - these results don't lead me to believe that Fresno should be laying a big number of points to anybody. Add in the big line move from -17.5 all the way down to -14.5 despite 70% of wagerline on Fresno, and there you have it. Fresno will have success running the ball, but they are terrible on defense (just about as bad as Utah State). Fresno wins, but not by this margin.
Middle Tennessee State +10 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
As I've said many times, I'm no mathematical genius, but I took out my calculator and slide rule, and determined that it is extremely difficult to beat somebody by double-digits if you don't score any points. Extremely difficult.
Back tomorrow with additions, and my partner should be on with an early NFL pick or two later as well. Good luck everybody.
Fumbling it All Away
New Mexico outgained Air Force by 75 yards last night, but gave the game away with a seemingly never-ending series of blunders:
1st quarter: Lobos fumble on the Air Force 4-yard line, Air Force picks up the loose ball and returns it 96 yards for a touchdown. That is not a typo: a 96-yard fumble recovery. At least a 10-point swing there, probably 14.
3rd quarter: New Mexico fumbles a kickoff return, recovered by Air Force. Air Force then scores a touchdown on that drive.
3rd quarter: 4th and 1 on the Air Force 10 yard line, with the score only 17-10, and New Mexico decides to go for it rather than kick the easy field goal. They can't pick up the yard and therefore turn the ball over on downs. With 2 or 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, I could understand that. 4th and 1 on Air Force's 35 yard line, where a field goal is unlikely, I could understand going for it there also. But, in the 3rd quarter, on the 10 yard line, down only 7 points, I don't get it.
I thought the goal for these teams was to try and win these games, but obviously, I'm going to have to re-evaluate. Back later after I break a couple more things. We'll try to have some early picks up for tomorrow, but I really need to look a little closer after two disheartening losses this week.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Thursday Night in the Mountain West
No baseball play tonight, but one in football:
New Mexico +5 -109 (Matchbook), 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Both teams feature fantastic running games and no passing. However, the Lobos have the better run defense in this matchup (based on yds per game). And New Mexico has compiled the better numbers against better competition as well, as the Lobos have faced TCU, Tulsa, and BYU already this season, not to mention nonconference games against major conference foes Arizona and Texas A&M. Public on the side of Air Force, but this line has dropped from +5.5 down to +4.5 at many books after only a few days. No misadventures for Lobo tonight (if you get that reference, you are old and a little deranged).
New Mexico +5 -109 (Matchbook), 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Both teams feature fantastic running games and no passing. However, the Lobos have the better run defense in this matchup (based on yds per game). And New Mexico has compiled the better numbers against better competition as well, as the Lobos have faced TCU, Tulsa, and BYU already this season, not to mention nonconference games against major conference foes Arizona and Texas A&M. Public on the side of Air Force, but this line has dropped from +5.5 down to +4.5 at many books after only a few days. No misadventures for Lobo tonight (if you get that reference, you are old and a little deranged).
Tale of the Tape - World Series Game 2
A quick listing of some of the key stats for tonight's game:
Pitchers (2008 stats)
Stat: _ Myers / Shields
K/BB: _ 2.51 / 4.00
WHIP: _ 1.38 / 1.15
K/9: _ 7.72 / 6.70
ERA: _ 4.55 / 3.56
FIP: _ 4.52 / 3.82
BB/9: _ 3.08 / 1.67
HR/9: _ 1.37 / 1.00
Hitters (2008 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers)
Phillies . . . . . . . . . . Rays
J. Rollins .790 . . . A. Iwamura .756
J. Werth .767 . . . . B. Upton .769
C. Utley .932 . . . . C. Pena .994
R Howard .967 . . . . E. Longoria .890
P. Burrell .843 . . . C. Crawford .754
S. Victorino .762 . . C. Floyd .819
P. Feliz .636 . . . . D. Navarro .767
G. Dobbs .846 . . . . G. Gross .789
C. Ruiz .604 . . . . J. Bartlett .597
Now, as far as I know, tonight's lineups have not been announced, but those are my best guesses as to how they will look. Coste played DH for the Phils last night only because of the Rays' lefty starter, so I feel pretty good projecting Dobbs in that spot tonight (although Jenkins wouldn't be a terrible choice if healthy), and the same with Cliff Floyd at Rays DH (can't hit lefties so Aybar took that spot last night). In right field, the Rays could play either Baldelli or Gross (I thought I heard one of the commentators last night say it would be Baldelli, actually), but I stuck Gross in there because he's hit a little better this season. Rays could also play Zobrist at SS over Bartlett (and probably should). Apologies for all the extra underscores and periods, but the blogger post layout doesn't do spacing very well.
10 Early College Football Leans
With the Phillies win last night, we're on a nice little roll this week (of course, we also had the boot to the crotch from Temple Tuesday night). As usual, these leans are based solely on the early wagerline numbers and line movements (or lack thereof):
North Carolina State +10.5 at Maryland
Indiana +7.5 vs. Northwestern
Rutgers +9.5 at Pittsburgh
SMU +12 @ Navy
Kent State +6.5 at Miami(OH)
Virginia +12 at Georgia Tech
Michigan +4 vs. Michigan State
Toledo +3.5 vs. Central Michigan
Louisville +4 vs. South Florida
Middle Tennessee State +10 at Mississippi State
Haven't looked at any of the stats yet, just the betting numbers, so help us out in the comments section, folks.
North Carolina State +10.5 at Maryland
Indiana +7.5 vs. Northwestern
Rutgers +9.5 at Pittsburgh
SMU +12 @ Navy
Kent State +6.5 at Miami(OH)
Virginia +12 at Georgia Tech
Michigan +4 vs. Michigan State
Toledo +3.5 vs. Central Michigan
Louisville +4 vs. South Florida
Middle Tennessee State +10 at Mississippi State
Haven't looked at any of the stats yet, just the betting numbers, so help us out in the comments section, folks.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
World Series - Game 1
Depending on the lines, of course, we don't expect to playing every game of this series, but we do like a side tonight:
Phillies -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Writing this post here at work where I don't have all of my notes handy (they're at home, and I'm not sure I'll get out of here in time to do this there), but Hamels/Kazmir is the one pitching matchup where the Phillies have a clear advantage. Kazmir's K/9 rate this season is a little higher, but his walk rate is twice as high as Hamels which diminishes any advantage there to me. The Philly hitters, based on OPS, have performed better this season against lefties than I expected, and facing a lefty starter like Kazmir looks like it's only going to have a significant negative impact on Ryan Howard, while everybody else should be fine. Grover tells me that the Baseball Prospectus folks have Philadelphia slightly favored (52/48) to win the series, and I have to believe that somewhere factored into that thinking is Hamels winning his starts, because it ain't Moyer or Blanton. Public slightly on the Rays tonight, but not a huge difference. Either way, we're on the visitors. Good luck everybody.
Phillies -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Writing this post here at work where I don't have all of my notes handy (they're at home, and I'm not sure I'll get out of here in time to do this there), but Hamels/Kazmir is the one pitching matchup where the Phillies have a clear advantage. Kazmir's K/9 rate this season is a little higher, but his walk rate is twice as high as Hamels which diminishes any advantage there to me. The Philly hitters, based on OPS, have performed better this season against lefties than I expected, and facing a lefty starter like Kazmir looks like it's only going to have a significant negative impact on Ryan Howard, while everybody else should be fine. Grover tells me that the Baseball Prospectus folks have Philadelphia slightly favored (52/48) to win the series, and I have to believe that somewhere factored into that thinking is Hamels winning his starts, because it ain't Moyer or Blanton. Public slightly on the Rays tonight, but not a huge difference. Either way, we're on the visitors. Good luck everybody.
Temple of Doom
Ugh. Up 10-0 with 11 minutes left in the game, and then miss the cover by one point. I feel a little queasy.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
I Still Don't Like Tuesday Football
But, the line movement on this one compels me to make a play:
Ohio +3 +110 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.1 units
I like Temple when they're a big dog, but not so much as favorites. Line movement points to Ohio, and the Temple offense is pathetic, especially after the loss of DiMichele. Road team wins.
Ohio +3 +110 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.1 units
I like Temple when they're a big dog, but not so much as favorites. Line movement points to Ohio, and the Temple offense is pathetic, especially after the loss of DiMichele. Road team wins.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Monday Night Football Week 7
One play tonight:
Denver Broncos/New England Patriots UNDER 49 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
The deaths of both defenses have been greatly exaggerated. Don't get me wrong- neither defense is anything special- but I expect the Patriots defense to put in a decent performance at home on Monday night. As for the other side of the equation, the Denver defense is a little scary, but the Cassel-led Patriots offense isn't gonna march up and down the field on them. And the Pats' greatest offensive strength, Randy Moss, matches up nicely with the Broncos' greatest defensive strength, Champ Bailey.
Denver Broncos/New England Patriots UNDER 49 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
The deaths of both defenses have been greatly exaggerated. Don't get me wrong- neither defense is anything special- but I expect the Patriots defense to put in a decent performance at home on Monday night. As for the other side of the equation, the Denver defense is a little scary, but the Cassel-led Patriots offense isn't gonna march up and down the field on them. And the Pats' greatest offensive strength, Randy Moss, matches up nicely with the Broncos' greatest defensive strength, Champ Bailey.
NBA Win Totals - Atlantic Division
Just my ramblings on the win totals out on the NBA for this season. Hoping to find time for a quick post on each division. Over/Under numbers from The Greek. Pythagorean estimated wins for last year from the worldwide leader.
Boston Celtics
Over/Under: 53.5 wins
2007-08 record: 66-16
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 70-12 (points per game differential = +10.3 pts)
The math wiz at Vegas Watch could explain the Pythagorean win estimates much, much better than I can, but basically, it's an estimate of what a team's record should have been based on points scored and points allowed. As for the Celtics, the O/U for this year is very curious at 53.5. That's quite a dropoff from their actual record last year, and even more precipitous compared to the Pythagorean number (70 wins). Does James Posey's absence cause this difference? I don't think so. The division got tougher with Brand in Philly and Jermaine O'Neal in Toronto, but that much of a difference makes me think something else is going on. I don't know of anywhere you can get consensus betting info on win totals, but I'm sure the public will be on the Over here. Not touching this one with a ten-foot pole.
New Jersey Nets
Over/Under: 27.5 wins
2007-08 record: 34-48
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 25-57 (points per game differential = -5.1 pts)
As bad as the Nets record was last season, their "true" record based on scoring was even worse. So, while the over/under at 27.5 wins appears to represent a step down from last year's 34 wins, it's actually a step up from the Pythag wins (25), which is pretty unlikely looking at the roster. Too many unknowns in the frontcourt to forecast any improvement. Yi, Boone, Brook Lopez, and Najera aren't exactly going to strike fear in the hearts of the other big men in the division (Garnett/Perkins, Bosh/O'Neal, Brand/Dalembert, etc.). Without Jefferson, the Nets will likely revert back to their 25-win true record for last year or worse. They're worried more about high draft picks and keeping cap room for Lebron anyway. Under.
New York Knicks
Over/Under: 32.5 wins
2007-08 record: 23-59
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 21-61 (points per game diferential = -6.6 pts)
This is another head-scratcher. I know Isiah isn't a good coach, and a horrible GM, but even with a big upgrade in those areas, the Knicks are still putting pretty much the same players on the court. Maybe Duhon represents a steadier hand on the wheel at point guard than Starbury, but a 10-game improvement is a lot to ask for, even with D'Antoni calling the shots. They still have the defense-lacking train wreck of Curry/Randolph in the frontcourt, and David Lee seems as likely to get traded as he is to sign a big-money extension with Donnie Walsh in cost-cutting mode. Other than Lee, there's not much on that bench to provide help. Under.
Philadelphia 76ers
Over/Under: 48.5 wins
2007-08 record: 40-42
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 42-40 (points per game differential = +0.4 pts)
Now here's a situation that's looking up. Adding Elton Brand up front should provide the Sixers with a force in the paint they've been lacking since Sir Charles was in Philly. I really like the moves they have made this offseason, as they now have, in addition to a nice starting lineup (Miller/Iguodala/Young/Brand/Dalembert), a lot of quality guys on the bench who can provide specific areas as needed - they have 3-point specialists (Kareem Rush & Donyell Marshall), a tough rebounder (Reggie Evans), and even The Artist Formerly Known as Theo Ratliff's Expiring Contract can provide size, blocks, and six fouls if needed. Another 7-10 wins is usually a tall task from one year to the next (unless a team is tanking like the Celts two years ago), but with the huge upgrade at the 4 and the continued development of Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams, I would go with the Over on this bunch.
Toronto Raptors
Over/Under: 47.5 wins
2007-08 record: 41-41
2007-08 Pythagorean record: 51-31 (points per game differential = +2.9 pts)
That 10-win difference between the Raptors' actual record and Pythagorean record is pretty substantial - upon a quick glance, the biggest difference in the league, although the Nets are close, albeit in the opposite direction. Looking at this teams roster, they just don't look that good to me, so I'm confused on this one. Moving Calderon into the starting lineup is an improvement (averaged 9.7 assists per game in a 24-game stretch when he started in the place of an injured TJ Ford), but the dropoff at the back-up point guard spot is dramatic. There's nobody on the bench unless Bargnani takes a big step forward after taking a step back last season. And who knows what Jermaine O'Neal's health and effort will look like this season? I lean to the Under, but that Pythag number from last year gives me great pause, because this year's team should look a lot like last year plus O'Neal. This one has me completely stumped.
Nice Sunday
A winning day in the NFL (should have been a clean sweep if not for all the punting/punt return nonsense in the Vikings game), and I think all 5 of the teams we have win totals positions on did what they were supposed to do (I'm sure one of us will provide an update on those soon).
Plus, the Rays are going to the World Series, which is pretty exciting, especially if you have futures interest in them like my blog partner. I can't believe basketball is about to start already...
Saturday, October 18, 2008
You Can't Lick Our Cocks
A bumper sticker you see around the Columbia, South Carolina area, not our rejection of your sexual advances. We would never turn that down. Adding one more:
South Carolina +2 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Gamecock defense too tough tonight in Williams-Brice. The only decent team LSU has played is Florida, and they got the shit kicked out of them in that game. No reason the public should be on them so much tonight, and the books have acknowledged that by moving this line a full point in the opposite direction.
Going over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house for dinner tonight, so this is probably it. Should be an addition to the NFL picks either tonight or in the morning.
Does Every Game Start at 3:30 Today?
Seems like it. I'm going to be trying to watch 4 games at the same time. Two more for this afternoon:
Ole Miss +11.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
The Rebels' big weakness is their pass defense, but fortunately for them, Alabama can't throw the ball. This line is down to 10.5 at Matchbook already.
Duke +3 -101 (Matchbook), 1.01 units to win 1 unit
This line seems so bizarre, but this is not your father's Miami Hurricane team (or your cool uncle's, or big brother's...). Statistically, Duke looks like the better team offensively, which again is really strange. A little concerned about the athletic advantages for Miami, but the line move on this one, despite the public action on Miami, seals the deal for us.
UAB and Middle Tennessee State were narrow misses, but trying to control myself this week after getting involved in too many games last Saturday. Probably an addition coming later for a night game, but haven't made a definite decision on which one it will be. From the comments, it looks like some other folks are on Ole Miss as well, so good luck to all of us. Back later.
Ole Miss +11.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
The Rebels' big weakness is their pass defense, but fortunately for them, Alabama can't throw the ball. This line is down to 10.5 at Matchbook already.
Duke +3 -101 (Matchbook), 1.01 units to win 1 unit
This line seems so bizarre, but this is not your father's Miami Hurricane team (or your cool uncle's, or big brother's...). Statistically, Duke looks like the better team offensively, which again is really strange. A little concerned about the athletic advantages for Miami, but the line move on this one, despite the public action on Miami, seals the deal for us.
UAB and Middle Tennessee State were narrow misses, but trying to control myself this week after getting involved in too many games last Saturday. Probably an addition coming later for a night game, but haven't made a definite decision on which one it will be. From the comments, it looks like some other folks are on Ole Miss as well, so good luck to all of us. Back later.
Friday, October 17, 2008
NFL Week 7
Lines are as of my line-shopping at around 8:30 PM last night. You know, back when the Rays were jumping all over the Sox early for the third night in a row, and all was right with the world. Oh, those were happy times.
Oakland Raiders +4 -105 (BetUS), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
I am not an old-Favre fan. That said, this isn't simply an old-Favre fade. Oakland's a home dog, and everyone is staying away from them- only 24% of the wagers are on the Raiders according to Wagerline. Understandable, given the instability. But with that much coming in on the Jets, why isn't the line moving? It's +3 elsewhere, +4 at my beloved BetUS. Not a huge margin. I don't think the Jets have done anything noteworthy yet- they beat a hapless Bengal team last week. Their marquee performance, the 6-TD-Pass drubbing of the Cardinals, was almost entirely a product of turnovers. The Cardinals actually outgained the Jets in that game. I'll take any NFL home dog playing against a team that hasn't done anything to suggest it's among the NFL elite.
Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.05 units.
Two teams with identical 3-3 records. If their records were an accurate reflection of the teams' quality, the 3 point edge to the home team would make perfect sense. But they're not even close. Minnesota's three losses: at Green Bay on a Monday night, at home to a Colts team that got a miracle Manning comeback, and on the road to the undefeated Titans. Hard to hold that against them. It's not so much that the Bears have lost to particularly awful teams (at Carolina, home vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta). Rather, I think the Vikings have had a brutal schedule thus far, and I think their overall team quality is more in line with the preseason predictions found in Pro Football Prospectus and elsewhere.
The fact that 67% of wagerline bettors are on the Bears doesn't hurt either.
New Orleans/Carolina Under 46.5 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I have no idea why this number was available, or if it's still available. The line was 44.5 or 45 elsewhere. But I checked it twice over a half-hour time span, and there it was. 46.5. WSEX is handing us two extra points free of charge. If they're still doing it, might as well take them up on it. I also like the fact that wagerline bettors are on the over at a 66% clip. Apparently they only saw "New Orleans" in the listing, and missed the fact that the second-best defense in the league is playing in this game.
A couple other thoughts: last night The Packers were listed at +3 -105 at home vs Indy) at BetUS. The line is +1 or +1.5 elsewhere. I like this play- we're passing on it because we already have a big stake in the Pack from our preseason win total bets, but if it's still +3 at BetUS it's worth a look. I'd also keep an eye on Kansas City at home vs. the Titans. The line's been creeping upward since the Larry Johnson suspension was announced. If it gets high enough (say 11 or so), it's worth a play.
Oakland Raiders +4 -105 (BetUS), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
I am not an old-Favre fan. That said, this isn't simply an old-Favre fade. Oakland's a home dog, and everyone is staying away from them- only 24% of the wagers are on the Raiders according to Wagerline. Understandable, given the instability. But with that much coming in on the Jets, why isn't the line moving? It's +3 elsewhere, +4 at my beloved BetUS. Not a huge margin. I don't think the Jets have done anything noteworthy yet- they beat a hapless Bengal team last week. Their marquee performance, the 6-TD-Pass drubbing of the Cardinals, was almost entirely a product of turnovers. The Cardinals actually outgained the Jets in that game. I'll take any NFL home dog playing against a team that hasn't done anything to suggest it's among the NFL elite.
Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.05 units.
Two teams with identical 3-3 records. If their records were an accurate reflection of the teams' quality, the 3 point edge to the home team would make perfect sense. But they're not even close. Minnesota's three losses: at Green Bay on a Monday night, at home to a Colts team that got a miracle Manning comeback, and on the road to the undefeated Titans. Hard to hold that against them. It's not so much that the Bears have lost to particularly awful teams (at Carolina, home vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta). Rather, I think the Vikings have had a brutal schedule thus far, and I think their overall team quality is more in line with the preseason predictions found in Pro Football Prospectus and elsewhere.
The fact that 67% of wagerline bettors are on the Bears doesn't hurt either.
New Orleans/Carolina Under 46.5 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I have no idea why this number was available, or if it's still available. The line was 44.5 or 45 elsewhere. But I checked it twice over a half-hour time span, and there it was. 46.5. WSEX is handing us two extra points free of charge. If they're still doing it, might as well take them up on it. I also like the fact that wagerline bettors are on the over at a 66% clip. Apparently they only saw "New Orleans" in the listing, and missed the fact that the second-best defense in the league is playing in this game.
A couple other thoughts: last night The Packers were listed at +3 -105 at home vs Indy) at BetUS. The line is +1 or +1.5 elsewhere. I like this play- we're passing on it because we already have a big stake in the Pack from our preseason win total bets, but if it's still +3 at BetUS it's worth a look. I'd also keep an eye on Kansas City at home vs. the Titans. The line's been creeping upward since the Larry Johnson suspension was announced. If it gets high enough (say 11 or so), it's worth a play.
Saturday Threesome
That headline reminds me of college......and if you believe that, you've obviously never met me. For those of you who have e-mailed to say that you actually have lives and fun things to do on the weekend other than staring at a computer (I remember those days, barely), a few early college football plays for tomorrow. All lines from Matchbook:
Virginia +4.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
UNC did a good job of soldiering on without their best QB the past few games, but now with their best playmaker down as well (Tate), it's hard to see them firing on all cylinders tomorrow. The return of Cedric Peerman at running back a couple of weeks ago has really turned the Cavs' season around. If Verica can minimize the turnovers, UVA wins straight up.
New Mexico State +2.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
This team has been really underrated this year, and of all the blunders last week, I really regret not noticing the awful line they were getting against Nevada. Neither of these teams can run the ball, but the Aggies have the 5th best passing attack in the country (based on passing yards per game), and the 8th best passing defense, plus they're playing at home. Another straight up underdog win.
Memphis +8 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Statistically, Memphis actually looks like the better team here, even though ECU is still getting the love for the two wins at the beginning of the season (recently, they have been awful). Now, the Pirates are going with the desperate "Two QB System" for tomorrow's game, which isn't exactly going to help get the offense in a good rhythm all of a sudden. Does this mean I don't have to hear ESPN's Jesse Palmer say that Pinkney is the "most efficient QB in the country," like, every 5 seconds? Because that would be nice. I'm not expecting the straight-up win on this one, but the Tigers should be able to keep it within the number.
Good luck everybody. Trying to restrain myself from playing Duke (I have some homer issues), but that line movement keeps on rolling. Probably some early NFL picks later this afternoon from my partner. And yes, my crotch still hurts after the Red Sox kicked me there last night.
Virginia +4.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
UNC did a good job of soldiering on without their best QB the past few games, but now with their best playmaker down as well (Tate), it's hard to see them firing on all cylinders tomorrow. The return of Cedric Peerman at running back a couple of weeks ago has really turned the Cavs' season around. If Verica can minimize the turnovers, UVA wins straight up.
New Mexico State +2.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
This team has been really underrated this year, and of all the blunders last week, I really regret not noticing the awful line they were getting against Nevada. Neither of these teams can run the ball, but the Aggies have the 5th best passing attack in the country (based on passing yards per game), and the 8th best passing defense, plus they're playing at home. Another straight up underdog win.
Memphis +8 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Statistically, Memphis actually looks like the better team here, even though ECU is still getting the love for the two wins at the beginning of the season (recently, they have been awful). Now, the Pirates are going with the desperate "Two QB System" for tomorrow's game, which isn't exactly going to help get the offense in a good rhythm all of a sudden. Does this mean I don't have to hear ESPN's Jesse Palmer say that Pinkney is the "most efficient QB in the country," like, every 5 seconds? Because that would be nice. I'm not expecting the straight-up win on this one, but the Tigers should be able to keep it within the number.
Good luck everybody. Trying to restrain myself from playing Duke (I have some homer issues), but that line movement keeps on rolling. Probably some early NFL picks later this afternoon from my partner. And yes, my crotch still hurts after the Red Sox kicked me there last night.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Thursday Night Football
Hate to bump the baseball play down already, but a lot of stuff to get on the site today.
TCU -2 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Impossible to ignore the big line movement on this one with the public heavily on BYU tonight. That's not surprising considering that the folks at ESPN have been talking for 2 months now about BYU going undefeated and crashing the BCS this season. BYU's 50 yards more per game on offense is more than offset by TCU's 100-yard per game advantage defensively (and TCU has actually played a good team this year [Oklahoma], while BYU has not). And as the old saying goes, Defense wins Thursday night Mountain West Conference games. Go Frogs.
TCU -2 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Impossible to ignore the big line movement on this one with the public heavily on BYU tonight. That's not surprising considering that the folks at ESPN have been talking for 2 months now about BYU going undefeated and crashing the BCS this season. BYU's 50 yards more per game on offense is more than offset by TCU's 100-yard per game advantage defensively (and TCU has actually played a good team this year [Oklahoma], while BYU has not). And as the old saying goes, Defense wins Thursday night Mountain West Conference games. Go Frogs.
One More Time
Because it's probably the last chance we'll get to fade Dice-K all season:
Tampa Bay Rays +145 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.
The Rays are a smart team. They'll leave their bats on their shoulders and let Dice-K provide their offense for them. I'm a little hesitant because of the day off before and after, which allows Francona to work Papelbon as much as he wants. As I wrote last week in our only pro-Dice-K play of the year, situations like this work for him because he can try to paint the corners and use a lot of pitches with fewer repercussions. Still, +145 is clearly value here.
For those that are troubled by the way Dice-K "dominated" the Rays in Game 1: prior to that game, he threw 15 innings against these Rays. He walked 11 in those 15 innings and was fortunate to only allow 5 runs (WHIP: 1.60). Either way, it's too small a sample size to mean much, but hopefully it at least shows you that he doesn't "have the Rays' number."
Tampa Bay Rays +145 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.
The Rays are a smart team. They'll leave their bats on their shoulders and let Dice-K provide their offense for them. I'm a little hesitant because of the day off before and after, which allows Francona to work Papelbon as much as he wants. As I wrote last week in our only pro-Dice-K play of the year, situations like this work for him because he can try to paint the corners and use a lot of pitches with fewer repercussions. Still, +145 is clearly value here.
For those that are troubled by the way Dice-K "dominated" the Rays in Game 1: prior to that game, he threw 15 innings against these Rays. He walked 11 in those 15 innings and was fortunate to only allow 5 runs (WHIP: 1.60). Either way, it's too small a sample size to mean much, but hopefully it at least shows you that he doesn't "have the Rays' number."
10 Early College Leans
Apologies for the lack of material the past couple of days, but both of us have a lot going on this week in the real world. I like this card better than last week, so hopefully we can pluck a few winners out of this bunch:
TCU pick vs. BYU
Memphis +8.5 at East Carolina
Duke +4.5 vs. Miami
Ole Miss +13 at Alabama
Vanderbilt +15 at Georgia
Virginia +4.5 vs. North Carolina
Washington +14 vs. Oregon State
SMU +13 vs. Houston
UNLV +5 vs. Air Force
Middle Tennessee State +14.5 at Louisville
As always, any advice on these or any other games always appreciated. I'm sure I'll spot something in the next couple of days that isn't on this list. Good night, folks.
TCU pick vs. BYU
Memphis +8.5 at East Carolina
Duke +4.5 vs. Miami
Ole Miss +13 at Alabama
Vanderbilt +15 at Georgia
Virginia +4.5 vs. North Carolina
Washington +14 vs. Oregon State
SMU +13 vs. Houston
UNLV +5 vs. Air Force
Middle Tennessee State +14.5 at Louisville
As always, any advice on these or any other games always appreciated. I'm sure I'll spot something in the next couple of days that isn't on this list. Good night, folks.
Monday, October 13, 2008
The Start of a New Week
Still nauseous after the end of that Eagles game yesterday. One play today, in the ALCS:
Rays +181 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.81 units
Not much needs to be said here. Lester may be slightly better than Garza, as Garza's home run rate is slightly worse and Lester's FIP (similar to ERA, but with fielding impact removed) is a half-run better. But, it's not this much different, and the public is on Boston, so we're on Tampa.
To elaborate on the regular season numbers:
K/BB
Garza: 2.17
Lester: 2.30
WHIP
Garza: 1.24
Lester: 1.27
K/9
Garza: 6.24
Lester: 6.50
FIP
Garza: 4.14
Lester: 3.64
BB/9
Garza: 2.88
Lester: 2.82
HR/9
Garza: 0.93
Lester: 0.60
Except for the differences in FIP and HR/9, as mentioned above, these guys are eerily similar. Not a situation where I'd give either guy even close to a line differential like this.
Rays +181 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.81 units
Not much needs to be said here. Lester may be slightly better than Garza, as Garza's home run rate is slightly worse and Lester's FIP (similar to ERA, but with fielding impact removed) is a half-run better. But, it's not this much different, and the public is on Boston, so we're on Tampa.
To elaborate on the regular season numbers:
K/BB
Garza: 2.17
Lester: 2.30
WHIP
Garza: 1.24
Lester: 1.27
K/9
Garza: 6.24
Lester: 6.50
FIP
Garza: 4.14
Lester: 3.64
BB/9
Garza: 2.88
Lester: 2.82
HR/9
Garza: 0.93
Lester: 0.60
Except for the differences in FIP and HR/9, as mentioned above, these guys are eerily similar. Not a situation where I'd give either guy even close to a line differential like this.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
The End of a Rough Week
Hated the college football card, as I said several days ago, but still played too many games. Dumb.
One more for the early round of NFL games:
Ravens +4 +104 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Colts still not running on all cylinders, and the Ravens' defense should take advantage this afternoon.
One more for the early round of NFL games:
Ravens +4 +104 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Colts still not running on all cylinders, and the Ravens' defense should take advantage this afternoon.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Two More
Hated that Indiana pick as soon as I put it in. Awful. Just 2 more and then done with the college game:
Stanford +6.5 -101 (Matchbook), 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Southern Mississipi +10.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
_
Stanford +6.5 -101 (Matchbook), 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Southern Mississipi +10.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
_
College Football - Afternoon Additions
Three more for the afternoon games, lines from Matchbook:
Tennessee +12.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Tennessee hasn't really been roughed up this season, and I think the narrow win last week was probably partially due to looking ahead to this game. Even in the lopsided result score-wise vs. Florida, the Vols actually outgained the Gators.
Indiana +6 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Kellen Lewis and gang make enough big plays to keep this one close.
Texas A&M +3 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
65% or more on Kansas State all week, but the line retreated from K St. -3.5 and then held firm at -3 since then.
Good luck everybody. Maybe one of two more for tonight.
Tennessee +12.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Tennessee hasn't really been roughed up this season, and I think the narrow win last week was probably partially due to looking ahead to this game. Even in the lopsided result score-wise vs. Florida, the Vols actually outgained the Gators.
Indiana +6 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Kellen Lewis and gang make enough big plays to keep this one close.
Texas A&M +3 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
65% or more on Kansas State all week, but the line retreated from K St. -3.5 and then held firm at -3 since then.
Good luck everybody. Maybe one of two more for tonight.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Let's Play Two!
Playing 'em both. Lines from Matchbook:
Dodgers +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Rays -118, 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Nobody is even getting 60% of the wagerline action, so we're just going with the better pitchers (Billingsley over Myers, Shields over the Diceman). Look at the real stats, folks, there's a clear edge in each game. Good luck.
Dodgers +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Rays -118, 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Nobody is even getting 60% of the wagerline action, so we're just going with the better pitchers (Billingsley over Myers, Shields over the Diceman). Look at the real stats, folks, there's a clear edge in each game. Good luck.
This Week in the No Fun League
Write-ups from Grover, who is on the road traveling today, but sent them to me before he left. All lines from Matchbook:
Tampa -1 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
This call is borderline, toughest of the three plays, but I do like the Bucs here. The teams look virtually even on paper to me. The Bucs are averaging about 20 more ypg on offense, the Panthers are giving up about 50 ypg less. The small difference there could be nullified when you consider the Bucs' slightly easier schedule according to Sagarin's ratings. The LVSC have the Panthers about a point better than the Bucs on their scale (139-138).
To me, looks like the Bucs should be -3 as the home team. Standard home team advantage is, I believe, 3 or 4 points. Carolina might have the slightest of edges on a neutral field, but the fact that the game's in Tampa more than makes up for it. But the line is set at -1.5 instead, which suggests value to me, especially with a majority of wagerline bettors on the other side.
Atlanta +2.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
This is one of those great cases where a team is carrying undeserved baggage from the previous year and we get to take advantage of it. The '07 Falcons were in disarray. They were a total mess. The '08 Falcons aren't gonna win the Super Bowl, but they're 3-2, and it's not a pure fluke. They've upgraded across the board at the offensive skill positions. Yet they get 2.5 points at home against a team that has an identical 3-2 record? And then the Wagerline bettors hop all over their opponent (Chicago) at a 68% clip. Do these people not know how important home field is in the NFL? Also, a quick look at the NFL injury report suggests to me that the Bears' top players are a little more banged up than the Falcons' top players.
San Francisco +4.5 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units
Another case where the teams' pre-2008 history is having more impact on bettors than it should. The Niners and Eagles have identical 2-3 records. I'm not gonna argue that they're even, since the Eagles have obviously had to endure a much tougher schedule to get to 2-3. But really, San Fran gets 4.5 at home? The only impressive thing the Eagles have done is beat Pittsburgh, at home, in a game that the Steelers lost due to an inexplicable failure to adjust their defense to the Eagles' blitzes (Aside to Steelers' brass: if you pay me enough, I'll be happy to come teach your team about slant routes and screen passes). And you probably don't even need to look at the injury report to guess who's worse for the wear this week. But go ahead and look anyway. It will make you feel a lot better about this play. Apparently Wagerline's bettors haven't looked, since they're playing Philly at a 73% clip. Probably some nonsense about how it's a "must win" for the Eagles. Whatever.
Could be another addition or two Sunday morning (especially since Grover is out of town, and I'm in charge). Maybe a baseball game or two later (prefer Billingsley and Shields in those matchups, but haven't finished looking yet).
Tampa -1 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
This call is borderline, toughest of the three plays, but I do like the Bucs here. The teams look virtually even on paper to me. The Bucs are averaging about 20 more ypg on offense, the Panthers are giving up about 50 ypg less. The small difference there could be nullified when you consider the Bucs' slightly easier schedule according to Sagarin's ratings. The LVSC have the Panthers about a point better than the Bucs on their scale (139-138).
To me, looks like the Bucs should be -3 as the home team. Standard home team advantage is, I believe, 3 or 4 points. Carolina might have the slightest of edges on a neutral field, but the fact that the game's in Tampa more than makes up for it. But the line is set at -1.5 instead, which suggests value to me, especially with a majority of wagerline bettors on the other side.
Atlanta +2.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
This is one of those great cases where a team is carrying undeserved baggage from the previous year and we get to take advantage of it. The '07 Falcons were in disarray. They were a total mess. The '08 Falcons aren't gonna win the Super Bowl, but they're 3-2, and it's not a pure fluke. They've upgraded across the board at the offensive skill positions. Yet they get 2.5 points at home against a team that has an identical 3-2 record? And then the Wagerline bettors hop all over their opponent (Chicago) at a 68% clip. Do these people not know how important home field is in the NFL? Also, a quick look at the NFL injury report suggests to me that the Bears' top players are a little more banged up than the Falcons' top players.
San Francisco +4.5 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units
Another case where the teams' pre-2008 history is having more impact on bettors than it should. The Niners and Eagles have identical 2-3 records. I'm not gonna argue that they're even, since the Eagles have obviously had to endure a much tougher schedule to get to 2-3. But really, San Fran gets 4.5 at home? The only impressive thing the Eagles have done is beat Pittsburgh, at home, in a game that the Steelers lost due to an inexplicable failure to adjust their defense to the Eagles' blitzes (Aside to Steelers' brass: if you pay me enough, I'll be happy to come teach your team about slant routes and screen passes). And you probably don't even need to look at the injury report to guess who's worse for the wear this week. But go ahead and look anyway. It will make you feel a lot better about this play. Apparently Wagerline's bettors haven't looked, since they're playing Philly at a 73% clip. Probably some nonsense about how it's a "must win" for the Eagles. Whatever.
Could be another addition or two Sunday morning (especially since Grover is out of town, and I'm in charge). Maybe a baseball game or two later (prefer Billingsley and Shields in those matchups, but haven't finished looking yet).
Finding Exciting Ways to Lose
At halftime of last night's football game, UAB was up 20-3 and we were sitting on a play of UAB +18. Translation: Houston could score an unlikely 5 unanswered touchdowns in the second half and we would still Push. Well, they scored 6 unanswered touchdowns in the second half. Sometimes, I really hate this hobby. Anyway, although I really can't stand the card this week (I don't think I'm alone), here are three early plays for Saturday, lines from Matchbook:
Northwestern +1.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Wagerline and line movement strong on this one. Plus, the Spartans are hosting Ohio State next week.
Temple +7.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
I've liked this Temple team since the beginning of the season, while CMU has been somewhat disappointing.
Toledo +16 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Michigan is nothing special this year, plus they have a look-ahead trip to Penn State next weekend, and are coming off the beating by Illinois (the sandwich!). Michigan wins, but not by this margin.
I wish I had more time for the write-ups, but I really have to get my ass to work. Grover e-mailed me the NFL picks yesterday before he left, and once I get a chance to look at them, they should be up after lunch. Also, depending on the lines, could be playing both baseball games tonight (haven't looked at the lines, yet - will get to it this afternoon). College football additions tomorrow, but probably not a ton because the choices are not that great this week. Good luck everybody.
Northwestern +1.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Wagerline and line movement strong on this one. Plus, the Spartans are hosting Ohio State next week.
Temple +7.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
I've liked this Temple team since the beginning of the season, while CMU has been somewhat disappointing.
Toledo +16 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Michigan is nothing special this year, plus they have a look-ahead trip to Penn State next weekend, and are coming off the beating by Illinois (the sandwich!). Michigan wins, but not by this margin.
I wish I had more time for the write-ups, but I really have to get my ass to work. Grover e-mailed me the NFL picks yesterday before he left, and once I get a chance to look at them, they should be up after lunch. Also, depending on the lines, could be playing both baseball games tonight (haven't looked at the lines, yet - will get to it this afternoon). College football additions tomorrow, but probably not a ton because the choices are not that great this week. Good luck everybody.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Last -Minute Series Play
Sorry for the late notice, but just saw the line we wanted:
Dodgers to win the series over the Phillies +104 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 2.08 units
Grover is away from the computer for a few days, but sent me an e-mail before he left with a link to Baseball Prospectus which indicates that the Dodgers have a 53.7% chance of winning this series. I don't understand how they calculate that, but Grover does and he says anything close to +100 or better is a play, so there it is. I preferred the Dodgers pitching anyway, so fine by me.
Dodgers to win the series over the Phillies +104 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 2.08 units
Grover is away from the computer for a few days, but sent me an e-mail before he left with a link to Baseball Prospectus which indicates that the Dodgers have a 53.7% chance of winning this series. I don't understand how they calculate that, but Grover does and he says anything close to +100 or better is a play, so there it is. I preferred the Dodgers pitching anyway, so fine by me.
Thursday Night Football
Can't say I didn't get this one in early today:
UAB +18 +105 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.05 units
If UAB can avoid making all the dumb mistakes that FAU made a couple of nights ago, they should be OK here. Two bad defenses tonight, but hopefully Houston's one-dimensional offense (not much production on the ground) will allow UAB to focus on defending the pass and keep it close. Houston getting too much love after beating a still over-rated ECU team. Good luck everybody.
UAB +18 +105 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.05 units
If UAB can avoid making all the dumb mistakes that FAU made a couple of nights ago, they should be OK here. Two bad defenses tonight, but hopefully Houston's one-dimensional offense (not much production on the ground) will allow UAB to focus on defending the pass and keep it close. Houston getting too much love after beating a still over-rated ECU team. Good luck everybody.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
10 Early College Football Leans
Started doing this Wednesday night ten early leans post a couple of weeks ago with good results (I know, small sample size). So, I'll do it again for this week:
Clemson +2.5 at Wake Forest
UAB +18 at Houston
Indiana +5.5 vs. Iowa
Northwestern +1.5 vs. Michigan State
Temple +7.5 at Central Michigan
Texas A&M +3 vs. Kansas State
Tennessee +12 at Georgia
Toledo +16.5 at Michigan
Stanford +6 vs. Arizona
Southern Mississippi +11 vs. Boise State
On a different note, we don't like either of the MLB series prices. We were hoping to get a good number on either the Rays or Dodgers, but the lines look pretty fair to us. Accordingly, we'll just be looking to pick off individual games in those series over the next week or so.
Clemson +2.5 at Wake Forest
UAB +18 at Houston
Indiana +5.5 vs. Iowa
Northwestern +1.5 vs. Michigan State
Temple +7.5 at Central Michigan
Texas A&M +3 vs. Kansas State
Tennessee +12 at Georgia
Toledo +16.5 at Michigan
Stanford +6 vs. Arizona
Southern Mississippi +11 vs. Boise State
On a different note, we don't like either of the MLB series prices. We were hoping to get a good number on either the Rays or Dodgers, but the lines look pretty fair to us. Accordingly, we'll just be looking to pick off individual games in those series over the next week or so.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Football on Tuesday is Just Weird
Can't get used to it.
Florida Atlantic +3.5 -101 (Matchbook), 1.01 units to win 1 unit
I guess the public is thinking that since Troy beat MTSU and FAU lost to them (by one point), then Troy is a lot better than FAU (Descartes called it the Transitive Property of Middle Tennessee State). In actuality, it looks like the FAU team that beat a better Troy team on the road last year and has pretty much everybody back this year is getting a great line tonight. Good luck everybody.
Florida Atlantic +3.5 -101 (Matchbook), 1.01 units to win 1 unit
I guess the public is thinking that since Troy beat MTSU and FAU lost to them (by one point), then Troy is a lot better than FAU (Descartes called it the Transitive Property of Middle Tennessee State). In actuality, it looks like the FAU team that beat a better Troy team on the road last year and has pretty much everybody back this year is getting a great line tonight. Good luck everybody.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Monday Baseball
Been planning on playing this one all day, but just found a couple of minutes to put it in:
Rays +124 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.24 units
If you look at the stats that matter, Sonnanstine > Floyd. That's the closest thing to math I've ever included in a post. We've probably faded Floyd almost as much as Dice-K this season. Good luck everybody.
Rays +124 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.24 units
If you look at the stats that matter, Sonnanstine > Floyd. That's the closest thing to math I've ever included in a post. We've probably faded Floyd almost as much as Dice-K this season. Good luck everybody.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
And One More NFL Play
Adding one more. I previously discussed it with the rest of our NFL picks here.
Buffalo/Arizona Under 45 -114 (Matchbook), 1.14 units to win 1 unit.
Buffalo/Arizona Under 45 -114 (Matchbook), 1.14 units to win 1 unit.
Uno Mas
One more for tonight, and then done with college for this week:
UTEP +7 +114 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Good luck everybody.
UTEP +7 +114 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Good luck everybody.
Afternoon Additions
Two more for the 3:30 (Eastern) round of games, lines from Matchbook:
SMU +13.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Colorado +12 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Looking at one or two more possibilities for tonight. Haven't talked with Grover yet today, but we'll look at the baseball games over the next few hours as well.
SMU +13.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Colorado +12 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Looking at one or two more possibilities for tonight. Haven't talked with Grover yet today, but we'll look at the baseball games over the next few hours as well.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Stop the Presses!!!
The most shocking Against All Odds play of 2008:
Boston Red Sox +130 (Matchbook I think), 1 unit to win 1.30 units.
That's right, we're playing Dice-K tonight. Our archenemy. Why? Well, let's start with the fact that the Red Sox are a far better team top-to-bottom. You don't end up 18 games ahead of a team in the Baseball Prospectus third-order standings by chance. Plus Wagerline shows the public on the Angels, presumably because they see tonight as some sort of "must win," which is of course a load of crap. If you can get underdog money on the better team while fading the public, you have to take a second look and check out the pitching matchups.
Here's where it gets dicey (ha!). We'd faded Dice-K all year because his control is terrible. He tries way too hard to hit the corners, and patient hitters can make him pay by accepting free passes to first base by the bunches. However, as Joe Posnanski points out, the Angels are NOT patient hitters. Quite the opposite. Furthermore, the series schedule (chosen by the Angels by the way) provided for a day off yesterday AND a day off tomorrow. What this means, as Tom Verducci noted, is that Dice-K can be his usual corner-seeking self, going for strikeouts whenever he needs them and walking a few in the process, because if he gets into any sort of trouble, the Sox have full use of their bullpen to bail him out. The schedule also nullifies the Angels' biggest advantage, bullpen depth, because the Sox can go ahead and throw Papelbon for two innings if they want with zero repercussions. Well played, Anaheim.
So that's the reasoning. But mostly, I enjoy the irony. Expect Dice-K to get shelled tonight, most likely by giving up seven walks.
Boston Red Sox +130 (Matchbook I think), 1 unit to win 1.30 units.
That's right, we're playing Dice-K tonight. Our archenemy. Why? Well, let's start with the fact that the Red Sox are a far better team top-to-bottom. You don't end up 18 games ahead of a team in the Baseball Prospectus third-order standings by chance. Plus Wagerline shows the public on the Angels, presumably because they see tonight as some sort of "must win," which is of course a load of crap. If you can get underdog money on the better team while fading the public, you have to take a second look and check out the pitching matchups.
Here's where it gets dicey (ha!). We'd faded Dice-K all year because his control is terrible. He tries way too hard to hit the corners, and patient hitters can make him pay by accepting free passes to first base by the bunches. However, as Joe Posnanski points out, the Angels are NOT patient hitters. Quite the opposite. Furthermore, the series schedule (chosen by the Angels by the way) provided for a day off yesterday AND a day off tomorrow. What this means, as Tom Verducci noted, is that Dice-K can be his usual corner-seeking self, going for strikeouts whenever he needs them and walking a few in the process, because if he gets into any sort of trouble, the Sox have full use of their bullpen to bail him out. The schedule also nullifies the Angels' biggest advantage, bullpen depth, because the Sox can go ahead and throw Papelbon for two innings if they want with zero repercussions. Well played, Anaheim.
So that's the reasoning. But mostly, I enjoy the irony. Expect Dice-K to get shelled tonight, most likely by giving up seven walks.
College Football Tonight (and Tomorrow!)
Still a little sore about not taking the hook with UAB and ending up with a push. Still, the Pitt play won easily and I shouldn't complain after nights where we win. One for tonight and three early picks for Saturday, all lines from Matchbook:
Friday Night
Marshall +3.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Well, they had that movie about Marshall recently so they must be pretty good. The step-down at QB from Mauk to Grutza in Cincy is a lot steeper than I expected it to be. The Cincinnati kids will be so freaked out after driving through West Virginia (squeal like a pig!), there's no way they'll be on their A-game. I made that drive once, and although I saw dozens of people along the road, I think I counted a total of 11 teeth. It's seriously scary.
Saturday
Iowa +6.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
These teams look roughly equal to me, and the betting/line movement is screaming for the Hawkeyes here. I think MSU should change their mascot from the Michigan State "Spartans" to the Michigan State "Guys Who Consistently Play to the Level of Their Opponents." I know, too wordy.
Iowa State +11.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
What's with the Iowa teams this week? Maybe I'm craving corn. Kansas not nearly as good as the hype machine left over from last year would have you believe. As Lee Corso would say, closer than the "experts" think. Of course, he doesn't have the balls to say that by "experts," he means the betting lines. At least Brent Musberger was never afraid to blatantly discuss the lines during his broadcasts.
Northern Illinois +16 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Almost made this one a 2-unit play, but declined. The classic sandwich game for Tennessee - coming off games vs. Florida and Auburn, and looking ahead to a trip to Athens to play Georgia next week, the Volunteers get a "week off" with this game against the Huskies. It's like Sarah Palin thinking she was getting a breather by showing up for an interview with lightweight Katie Couric, right up until she realized too late that Katie really wanted to kick her ass.
Ha! Grover's not the only one who can come up with current events jokes! But, seriously, this rambling post is bumping his NFL picks down a little bit, so make sure you scroll down. There will almost certainly be a few additions tomorrow, but this is it for now. Good luck everybody.
Friday Night
Marshall +3.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Well, they had that movie about Marshall recently so they must be pretty good. The step-down at QB from Mauk to Grutza in Cincy is a lot steeper than I expected it to be. The Cincinnati kids will be so freaked out after driving through West Virginia (squeal like a pig!), there's no way they'll be on their A-game. I made that drive once, and although I saw dozens of people along the road, I think I counted a total of 11 teeth. It's seriously scary.
Saturday
Iowa +6.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
These teams look roughly equal to me, and the betting/line movement is screaming for the Hawkeyes here. I think MSU should change their mascot from the Michigan State "Spartans" to the Michigan State "Guys Who Consistently Play to the Level of Their Opponents." I know, too wordy.
Iowa State +11.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
What's with the Iowa teams this week? Maybe I'm craving corn. Kansas not nearly as good as the hype machine left over from last year would have you believe. As Lee Corso would say, closer than the "experts" think. Of course, he doesn't have the balls to say that by "experts," he means the betting lines. At least Brent Musberger was never afraid to blatantly discuss the lines during his broadcasts.
Northern Illinois +16 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Almost made this one a 2-unit play, but declined. The classic sandwich game for Tennessee - coming off games vs. Florida and Auburn, and looking ahead to a trip to Athens to play Georgia next week, the Volunteers get a "week off" with this game against the Huskies. It's like Sarah Palin thinking she was getting a breather by showing up for an interview with lightweight Katie Couric, right up until she realized too late that Katie really wanted to kick her ass.
Ha! Grover's not the only one who can come up with current events jokes! But, seriously, this rambling post is bumping his NFL picks down a little bit, so make sure you scroll down. There will almost certainly be a few additions tomorrow, but this is it for now. Good luck everybody.
NFL Week 5
Usually we lead with college football plays Friday morning, and follow them up with NFL plays after lunch. However, Hambone usually handles the college game, and his schedule is a bit off these days. Here's our NFL plays thus far. One of us will be back with NCAA plays before the slate kicks off at noon tomorrow. As usual, these are the lines I found while line-shopping last night. Your mileage may vary. If you don't like it, I can give you the number to our IT department so you can complain about my firewall.
Seattle Seahawks +7 +103 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.03 units.
Here's what the Giants have done so far this year. In Week One, they won at home, 16-7, against a Redskins team that looked completely lost. They didn't move the ball at all in the second half. In Week Two, they crushed the Rams. In this way they resemble every other team that has played the Rams, including ... the Seahawks. In Week Three the Giants were taken to overtime at home by the Bengals. Read that one again.
I like this Giants this year. But they're atop all the power polls this week by default, not because they earned it. They're good. But they're not this good. Not good enough to give a touchdown to a decent team that's coming off a bye week and finally healthy. Not good enough to give a touchdown even when they're without their most dangerous offensive weapon. I'll take the touchdown and the +103 with pleasure, thank you.
Detroit Lions +4.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
This is a pure value play. The Lions are +3 or +3.5 everywhere else. When someone gives you a full point for no discernable reason, you gotta take it. After watching that ugly game against the Eagles last Sunday night, I don't think this Bears team is at that "NFL Road Favorite by more than a field goal" level yet. Few teams are.
Arizona Cardinals +1 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
See above- a line-shopping value play. The line is Arizona -1 or even -1.5 everywhere else. I don't know who's manning the ship over at BetUS. Maybe they hired some Lehman Brothers and AIG castaways this week.
Current Events Humor! I'm a regular Jay Leno. Anyway, this Buffalo team has surprised some people, but I don't think they've been all that impressive. As I discussed earlier, kicking the crap out of St. Louis doesn't do much for me.
Something else to take a look at with this game- The Over in this game (44.5 or so) is getting hammered according to the Wagerline data. I don't see it. Buffalo has a great defense, and while Arizona's defense is certainly not a source of great pride, the number of points the Cards have allowed is misleading, because their offense keeps turning it over in their own territory. As all PFP readers know, turnover margin is far more random than the talking heads would have you believe. If they don't turn it over 6 times this week, they won't give up 56. I promise. Anyway, I want to look a bit more but will probably add this play later.
Seattle Seahawks +7 +103 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.03 units.
Here's what the Giants have done so far this year. In Week One, they won at home, 16-7, against a Redskins team that looked completely lost. They didn't move the ball at all in the second half. In Week Two, they crushed the Rams. In this way they resemble every other team that has played the Rams, including ... the Seahawks. In Week Three the Giants were taken to overtime at home by the Bengals. Read that one again.
I like this Giants this year. But they're atop all the power polls this week by default, not because they earned it. They're good. But they're not this good. Not good enough to give a touchdown to a decent team that's coming off a bye week and finally healthy. Not good enough to give a touchdown even when they're without their most dangerous offensive weapon. I'll take the touchdown and the +103 with pleasure, thank you.
Detroit Lions +4.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
This is a pure value play. The Lions are +3 or +3.5 everywhere else. When someone gives you a full point for no discernable reason, you gotta take it. After watching that ugly game against the Eagles last Sunday night, I don't think this Bears team is at that "NFL Road Favorite by more than a field goal" level yet. Few teams are.
Arizona Cardinals +1 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
See above- a line-shopping value play. The line is Arizona -1 or even -1.5 everywhere else. I don't know who's manning the ship over at BetUS. Maybe they hired some Lehman Brothers and AIG castaways this week.
Current Events Humor! I'm a regular Jay Leno. Anyway, this Buffalo team has surprised some people, but I don't think they've been all that impressive. As I discussed earlier, kicking the crap out of St. Louis doesn't do much for me.
Something else to take a look at with this game- The Over in this game (44.5 or so) is getting hammered according to the Wagerline data. I don't see it. Buffalo has a great defense, and while Arizona's defense is certainly not a source of great pride, the number of points the Cards have allowed is misleading, because their offense keeps turning it over in their own territory. As all PFP readers know, turnover margin is far more random than the talking heads would have you believe. If they don't turn it over 6 times this week, they won't give up 56. I promise. Anyway, I want to look a bit more but will probably add this play later.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Two For Thursday
Getting these in late. I have no sense of time these days (sleep deprivation). Playing 2 of the 3 football games tonight, which is never a good idea. Lines from Matchbook:
Pittsburgh +13.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
UAB +3 +111, 1 unit to win 1.11 units
No time for long-windedness (is that even a word?), but the absence of Selvie will make a big difference in Tampa tonight, and that wicked little line move in the UAB game makes me think I'm right in believing that there's not really much difference between UAB & Memphis. Good luck everybody. Go Brewers/Dodgers. Maybe the Phillies will actually get some earned runs tonight.
Pittsburgh +13.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
UAB +3 +111, 1 unit to win 1.11 units
No time for long-windedness (is that even a word?), but the absence of Selvie will make a big difference in Tampa tonight, and that wicked little line move in the UAB game makes me think I'm right in believing that there's not really much difference between UAB & Memphis. Good luck everybody. Go Brewers/Dodgers. Maybe the Phillies will actually get some earned runs tonight.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
10 Early College Football Leans
Again this week, just throwing out some possibilities based on the early lines and wagerline returns. Last week's list went 7-3:
Pittsburgh +13.5 at South Florida
UAB +3.5 vs. Memphis
Northern Illinois +15.5 at Tennessee
Marshall +3.5 vs. Cincinnati
Iowa +7.5 at Michigan State
Stanford +7 at Notre Dame
SMU +13.5 at Central Florida
UTEP +7.5 at Southern Miss
Wisconsin +1.5 vs. Ohio State
Arizona State +9.5 at Cal
Off to bed. Nice game from Derek Lowe earlier.
Pittsburgh +13.5 at South Florida
UAB +3.5 vs. Memphis
Northern Illinois +15.5 at Tennessee
Marshall +3.5 vs. Cincinnati
Iowa +7.5 at Michigan State
Stanford +7 at Notre Dame
SMU +13.5 at Central Florida
UTEP +7.5 at Southern Miss
Wisconsin +1.5 vs. Ohio State
Arizona State +9.5 at Cal
Off to bed. Nice game from Derek Lowe earlier.
L.A. Story
OK, back from the hospital, everbody doing well so far (except for my frivolous youth, which has been exterminated by my fatherhood). One more series play and then we'll just pick and choose from the other games:
Dodgers to win the series +186 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.86 units
Whoops, baby's crying. See my post from yesterday - matchup a lot closer than this line would indicate. Should have bet this yesterday at +210.
Dodgers to win the series +186 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.86 units
Whoops, baby's crying. See my post from yesterday - matchup a lot closer than this line would indicate. Should have bet this yesterday at +210.
Other Division Series Thoughts
We played the Brewers at +164, as discussed below. I can't seem to get a hold of my partner today. I can't imagine what could possibly be occupying his time and attention. I heard he isn't even working today. Lazy bum.
Anyway, I can't see lines at work, but we had talked about two other plays. If I can get official lines that I like, I will probably play them. Until then ... we sort of like the Dodgers at +185 or better. Hambone likes this more than I do. I'm not a fan of this year's Dodgers squad. But I think at anything north of +180 or so it's probably value, especially when you consider the fact that in a five-game series, they could get 3 or even 4 starts out of Lowe and the underrated Chad Billingsley.
As for the AL, I love the Red Sox, even at +115, which was what I saw last night. I'm a noted devotee of third-order records, and the Sox finished the year 18 GAMES AHEAD OF THE ANGELS in the adjusted standings. They're the better team, and it's not really close, although the Beckett injury and the Angels' home-field advantage is mildly troubling. Hambone doesn't seem to be quite as convinced, but that's just because he hates math.
I will probably be hedging my Rays' future money with a small sum on the White Sox, so we'll leave the other AL series one alone, unless Hambone has strong feelings. We'll most likely fade Buerhle, though, as he will no doubt get all sorts of love as a "big game" pitcher.
Anyway, I can't see lines at work, but we had talked about two other plays. If I can get official lines that I like, I will probably play them. Until then ... we sort of like the Dodgers at +185 or better. Hambone likes this more than I do. I'm not a fan of this year's Dodgers squad. But I think at anything north of +180 or so it's probably value, especially when you consider the fact that in a five-game series, they could get 3 or even 4 starts out of Lowe and the underrated Chad Billingsley.
As for the AL, I love the Red Sox, even at +115, which was what I saw last night. I'm a noted devotee of third-order records, and the Sox finished the year 18 GAMES AHEAD OF THE ANGELS in the adjusted standings. They're the better team, and it's not really close, although the Beckett injury and the Angels' home-field advantage is mildly troubling. Hambone doesn't seem to be quite as convinced, but that's just because he hates math.
I will probably be hedging my Rays' future money with a small sum on the White Sox, so we'll leave the other AL series one alone, unless Hambone has strong feelings. We'll most likely fade Buerhle, though, as he will no doubt get all sorts of love as a "big game" pitcher.
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