I meant to do these last night, but several beers later I just didn't have the energy. Without further ado:
Wake/Navy Under 42 +119 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.19 units
The most popular football total at Wagerline today is the Over in this game, although the consensus is not huge (around 60-63% all week). Wake has no offense, and Navy has the most extreme one-dimensional offensive split in the country (1st in rushing yards/gm, last in passing). Knowing that there won't be any passing, Wake's 21st-ranked rushing defense should be able to sell out against the option on every play, which should make it difficult for Navy to score unless Wake turns the ball over 6 times like they did in the first game (unlikely). The total can be found at 43 or 43.5 at some books, but with much worse juice. Interestingly, at Matchbook, you could get 41.5 (a worse number) at +114 (worse juice), which would be a disaster to accidentally take, so pay attention.
Colorado State +2.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Taking a chance here (it's called gambling after all) on giving up the key number of 3 here to get the better juice. A game-winning field goal by Fresno at the end will result in some loud cursing. Grover likes the underappreciated Mountain West teams this bowl season, and we both agree that Fresno is still getting too much credit for past years' accomplishments. Neither of these teams is any good, but we think the Rams are not quite as bad. That's a ringning endorsement if I ever saw one, right?
Back later with hoops.
1 comment:
That loss on the Wake/Navy game might be the worst of the year. One minute left, game over, Navy knows Wake is going to run to keep the clock moving, and they let the Wake RB rumble 30-40 yards for a TD. Un-fucking-believable.
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