Poinsettia Bowl

In tonight's bowl game:

TCU -3 -119, 1.19 units to win 1 unit

There's an interesting discussion going on over at The Money Line Journal about whether there is still value left in this game after the line move from -2.5 to -3 -120, especially where the public is only very slightly favoring Boise State, so take a look over there before you make up your mind. To us, we think the fact that the line is moving in favor of the lower-ranked team, which is also a 2-loss team playing an undefeated media darling (how many clips of the Statue of Liberty play and marriage proposal are we going to have to sit through tonight?), is a sign that somebody that knows more than us likes the Frogs tonight. And before you say it, we acknowledge that the qualifier "knows more than us" doesn't exactly narrow things down very much.

We don't think a lot of recreational bettors are going to look through the schedule to find that TCU's two losses were AT OKLAHOMA and at Utah (in a game TCU was leading the whole way until the last 47 seconds), or that Boise's undefeated season is a joke once you look at the teams they played (Oregon and Southern Miss were their toughest opponents all year, and then they spent the rest of the season fattening up on Idaho, San Jose State, Utah State, etc.). For TCU to end up with the #1 rushing defense (yards/game), #9 passing defense, and #13 rushing offense in the nation when their schedule included road games at Oklahoma, Utah, and Colorado State, and a home game vs. BYU, is pretty impressive. No Smurf Turf on the field tonight. Go Frogs.