Quality Over Quantity

It's a little disheartening to be down 20 units in the sport at which I've done the best over the years (Grover is the baseball guy, but I've typically done well in college hoops), but it also gives me reason to believe I can turn it around since we're only one month into the season. For the moment, I think I'm going to try and shorten the list of picks each day, and narrow it down to just a couple/few I like the best. From the ACC/Big Ten Challenge:

Clemson at Illinois


Betting numbers

Opening line at Pinnacle: Illinois -2 (using Pinny b/c they're usually out first)
Current line at Pinnacle: Illinois -1

Wagerline: 57% Illinois
Sports Insights: 50% on each

Injuries: No significant injuries (Alex Legion suspended for Illinois)

Personnel: Pretty even at the guard spots, but a definitive edge for Clemson at the forward positions.

Recent Performance

Clemson: Neutral court victories over TCU and Temple. Barely escaped with a 1-point victory over Charlotte in their only true road game.

Illinois: Mostly feasting on patsies (although no margins of victory of more than 19 points, even against Jackson State, Texas-Corpus Christi, or Eastern Washington), but did win narrow neutral court victories vs. Tulsa and Kent State, in addition to an impressive road win over Vanderbilt.

The Verdict

Illinois' 6-point win at Vanderbilt looks nice on the resume, but the Illini shot 52.6% from the 3-point line in that game, which looks awfully flukey when compared against their season average of 34.6% (somebody who knows statistics better than me might call that shooting performance an "outlier" or an "anomaly" but I'll say "flukey"). I wouldn't expect that kind of shooting tonight. The Illini have no answer at power forward for Clemson's Trevor Booker, and the best player on the floor is probably Clemson's K.C. Rivers. No public consensus to go against, but the linesmakers are moving the line toward Clemson without any discernable reason, which makes me think that sharp money is coming in on the Tigers. Count me in.

The Pick: Clemson +1.5 -110 (WSEX), 2.2 units to win 2 units

Good luck everybody. Back this evening with the rest.