NFL Week 14: Wherein we play our first consensus pick

We're keeping an eye on both suspension-related games, and might add New Orleans and Detroit (playing Minnesota) later, but for now this is all we've got:

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 +102 (Matchbook): 1 unit to win 1.02 units.

And there it is! Our first consensus pick of the year, if 51% can be considered a consensus. A truly momentous occasion.

So why do we do it? Well, it appears that the public thinks these are evenly matched teams, with the crowd split almost 50/50 once the traditional 3 points for home field is built in. We disagree. Pittsburgh is way, way ahead of Dallas in the DVOA numbers (5th overall in the league to 17th overall). That's way too much of a disparity to be accounted for by Romo's four-game absence alone. There's something else at work here. The Cowboys are playing better football, but the public and the talking heads are getting way ahead of themselves in talking about this team as a contender. All they've done is beat a Redskins team (one that we've learned since then is far from stellar) in an ugly game and then held court with home wins against two of the league's bottomfeeders. Meanwhile, the Steelers have impressed almost every week. The injury to Marion Barber, with Felix Jones already shelved for the season, seals the deal.

St. Louis Rams + 14 + 102 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.02 units.

Since their bye and the end of the Linehan era in late September, there have been two Rams teams: One that has Steven Jackson in the lineup, and one that doesn't. The former covers spreads, the latter doesn't (with the singular exception of a cover of a nine-point spread with a seven-point loss). Seriously, go look it up. I'll wait.

You back? Crazy, right? I know. No need to thank me so profusely for pointing it out. Really. I'm blushing. Anyway, I usually downplay the impact of running backs, but Jackson is a beast, and his pass-catching ability changes their offense from a horrible one to one that at least can keep a defense on its toes. I think this team can stay within two touchdowns of the Cardinals. 14 is a lot of points. And unlike the Steelers play above, we're fading the public here. Wagerline says 63% on the Cards.