Monday Night College Basketball

Basically broke even in college hoops yesterday, but ended up ahead in NFL, NBA, and NHL so maybe we're starting to break out of our funk (jinx alert!). An interesting post over at Sports Investments has gotten me thinking about early season college hoops betting - the gist being that not a lot of people are wagering on basketball yet (presumably because football is still dominating the industry and because conference season hasn't started yet), so maybe the consensus numbers aren't as helpful as they are later in the season when basketball is the only game in town. There have been picks we've made in basketball that were based almost completely on the betting percentages, and there have been some that we've passed that looked like winners based on the personnel but didn't have the public fade numbers. It's definitely something I'm going to be thinking about more in the next few weeks, and at the beginning of next season for sure.

With all that rambling out of the way, the picks for Monday night:

Cal-State Northridge +2.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Heavy public action on Drexel, and even though the books moved the line WITH the public (we typically prefer the opposite), I'm going to go against the public anyway based on my evaluation of the talent on these two teams. To me, Northridge is equal or better at every position and on the bench, so we'll take the couple of points.

Virginia Tech -2.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

No consensus on this one, but I rate the Hokies as slightly better overall, and they're at home.

San Francisco +16.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

USC not a great team this year, San Fran has a steady hand at point guard, and forward Dior Lowhorn is a load for anybody to defend. Add to that the sportsbooks' retreat from USC -17.5 down to -16.5 and this is one I can't pass.

Sacramento State -2.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Much.....better......team. And, they're at home and only giving a couple of points. That sounds a little square, but with wagerline less than 60%, it's not all that bad.

Good luck everybody. After all of my yapping, the gambling gods will probably reward us with an 0-4 night. Back later with any of the other sports.