Just superstition which compels me to title the post that way at this point. The long-winded-writeup 2-unit plays have cashed two days in a row now, and college hoops went 2-0, +3 units overall last night. Today's college basketball top pick:
The Citadel at UNC-Greensboro
Betting Numbers
Opening line at Pinnacle: UNC-G -8
Current line at Pinnacle: UNC-G -7.5
Wagerline: 73% UNC-G
Sports Insights: 52% Citadel (???)
Injuries: None for either team
Personnel: Citadel has really solid play at the guard spots in Cameron Wells (16.9 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.0 assists per game) and Zach Urbanus (45.5% from 3-pt line), plus a proven 5th-year senior up front in 6-8 Demetrius Nelson (12.7 ppg, 4.4 reb). In Greensboro, they have two established players in 6-4 guard Mikko Koivisto (15.8 ppg) who is handling the point guard duties by default while they audition other players for the role, and 6-5 forward Ben Stywall (7.5 ppg, 8.0 reb) who is a great rebounder for his size, but is forced to play in the post due to the lack of any other competent big men.
Recent Performances: Both teams getting stomped by the big conference schools. Citadel has a couple of wins over low-level teams (Grambling, Charleston Southern). Both have lost to Central Arkansas, Citadel by 5 points and UNC-G by 13 (thus, by the transitive theorem of common opponents, Citadel is 8 points better than UNC-G, right? Well, not really, let's move on).
The Verdict
I'm not sure how much I trust that Sports Insights number compared with the huge number of wagerliners picking UNC-G. I was surprised to discover that Citadel seems to have the edge in personnel, with the superior backcourt group and the best post player up front (Nelson). Stywall is a workhorse, but is undersized at 6-5 and should be playing at small forward, not in the post. Unfortunately for UNC-G, there is nobody else to play up there. Combine all of that with the line retreat from +8 down to +7.5 at most books, and I'm sold on the Bulldogs.
The Pick: The Citadel +8 -109 (Matchbook), 2.18 units to win 2 units
Holy crap, I did a whole post about The Citadel and no references to "The Lords of Discipline." Amazing. Back tonight with the rest.
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1 comment:
OK, Sports Insights is now listing its percentages as UNC-G 57%, which makes more sense. I don't know if there was a mistake earlier, or if bets on Greensboro came in later (I'm not a paying subscriber to SI, so the numbers I see are delayed). Either way, I think that number is more realistic.
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