Saturday, December 6, 2008

Quality Over Quantity, College Football Edition


Only one game for the afternoon. From the American classic military brawl:

Navy at Army

Betting Numbers

Opening line at Pinnacle: Navy -10.5
Current line at Pinnacle: Navy -10.5

Wagerline: 72% Navy
Sports Insights: 80% Navy

Statistics

Passing offense:

Army: 46 yards per game
Navy: 64 yards per game

Rushing offense:

Army: 254 yards per game
Navy: 292 yards per game

Defenses: virtually even (Navy allows 359 ypg, Army allows 332)

Injuries

Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is day-to-day with a hamstring injury, and has missed several games this year.

The Verdict

Heavy public support for Navy but the line has held firm. From the statistics, these look like basically the same team: great rushing offense, no passing, decent rushing defense on both sides. Navy has better win/loss results, which may explain the line and public sentiment, but these teams aren't that different, especially with Navy's veteran option quarterback (I'm not going to try and spell it again) either out or playing on a bad hamstring, which is significant for a QB who runs every play and never throws.

The Pick: Army +11 -110 (WSEX), 2.2 units to win 2 units

And in college hoops, only 2 picks between now and the games that tipoff at 4 PM:

Cornell +11.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Backcourt injuries make this one a little risky for Big Red, but they're still not double-digits worse that Minnesota.

UNC-Charlotte +7 -107 (Matchbook), 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Backcourt edge for SIU, frontcourt advantage for Charlotte. Betting numbers (67% SIU at wagerline, line retreated to -6.5 at many books) say it will be close.

Back later with evening/night picks.

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