A little late this week, but we found three this week. Before I get to them, I have a question: why are there no NFL games on Saturday this week? There's no college football, and the college basketball action is limited due to exams and whatnot. Perfect day for an NFL weekend takeover.
OK, onward:
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 +103 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.03 units.
The Redskins are basically down to their scout team on the offensive line this week. Not much to like about either of these teams at the moment, so 6.5 points for the home team is value. 69% on the Skins according to Wagerline.
Houston Texans +4.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
This is as pure a contrarian play as you'll see (mixed in with some line-shopping value thanks to our friends at BetUS). On the face of it, there's no reason this number should be so small- it's generally -3 elsewhere, by the way. Something has to be going on. We've got the team with the best record in the league facing an under .500 team. Not gonna overthink this, just putting my money on the Texans. Predictably, Wagerline shows 70% on the Titans.
Baltimore Ravens -1.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
More BetUS value here. The game is .2.5 with added juice elsewhere. Here's a shocker for you- the Ravens are actually some amount better than the Steelers in the DVOA numbers. And they're just as hot of late. The Steelers were outplayed by the Cowboys and then got a gift-wrapped win from Romo. That game seems to be driving this line, with the home team getting less than a field goal. Consider this- if the Steelers had lost last week, would this line look like this? I think not. Wagerline bettors as backing the Steelers as well, although not by a huge margin.
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