NFL Week 16

Not a lot of action this week. Too many injuries and uncertainties about teams' motivation. I expect that will also be the case next week. Let's get to it.

Baltimore Ravens +6 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Line movement towards Baltimore at most books despite the public slightly favoring the Cowboys at around a 60/40 split. BetUS, as usual, is giving us a little something extra for fading a media darling. The game is generally listed at +4.5 elsewhere, and at +4 +110 at last check on Matchbook. DVOA numbers favor Baltimore by a decent margin. All of those things suggest value here at +6 or even +4. This may be our last week of BetUS bargains, so enjoy it. And remember: this game is being played Saturday night, so get your bets in today.


Seattle Seahawks +4 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

The Seahawks, as most people know, are bidding farewell to Mike Holmgren tonight. I'm not one to overvalue such things, but at least we can rest assured that this team that has been eliminated from the playffs won't mail it in, which can be a concern in Weeks 16 and 17. The Jets, who have been unimpressive at best over the last month, are getting 66% of the action according to Wagerline. They're a mere 17th in the DVOA rankings. They're giving 4. On the road. To a team that's been vastly improved in recent weeks. Hopefully that's more than enough to convince you of this play. It's certainly enough for me.