Quality Over Quantity, Day 2

Won the 2-unit play on Clemson last night (barely), and actually ended up making money, although not in large amounts, in all 3 sports we played last night, which is nice. Another long-winded write-up for a college hoops pick, again from the ACC-Big Ten Challenge:

Penn State at Georgia Tech

Betting Numbers

Opening line at Pinnacle: Georgia Tech -8.5
Current line at Pinnacle: Georgia Tech -7.5

Wagerline: 55% Georgia Tech
Sports Insights: 62% Penn State

Injuries

Georgia Tech: D'Andre Bell out with injury. Lewis Clinch suspended (academics)
Penn State: No significant injuries

Personnel: Very close up and down the lineups. Forward Jamelle Cornley of Penn State the most proven player in the game.

Recent Performance

Georgia Tech: All cupcakes, baby, and they struggled against two of them (won by 4 in overtime at Mercer, won by 3 at home to the Jacksonville Dolphins [who?]).

Penn State: Dominated the cupcakes, beat Penn by 12 in the Palestra, and lost by 5 to Rhode Island.

The Verdict

No public consensus to fade, so we look to the line move and the players. In Penn State's loss to Rhode Island, Jimmy Baron and crew shot 47% from the 3-point line and 82% of their free throws (URI had 22 FT attempts compared to Penn State's 13). In that game, Penn State only managed 28% on 3-pointers, compared to their early season average of 43%. With Clinch and Bell, the #1 and #2 options at shooting guard coming into the season, sitting this one out, Tech's backcourt depth, which wasn't great to begin with, gets even shallower. Can you see where this is going yet? The line retreat from 8.5 to 7.5 seals the deal for us.

The Pick: Penn State +7 -101 (Matchbook), 2.02 units to win 2 units

The line is +7.5 -110 at several other books if you don't have a Matchbook account (you really should), or if you want that extra half-point. Back after work with the rest. Stop looking at the picture of Elisha Cuthbert and pay attention, dammit!