3-0 on these 2-unit college basketball picks last week. One more for tonight:
San Francisco at Pacific
Betting Numbers
Opening line at Pinnacle: Pacific -8.5
Current line at Pinnacle: Pacific -5
Wagerline: 50% Pacific
Sport Insights: 81% San Francisco (???)
Injuries: None for San Francisco. One bench player (Edwards) out for Pacific, in addition to two players who are suspended for at least the first semester following sexual assault allegations last summer.
Personnel: Superior experience at point guard for San Francisco. The best player on the court by far is forward Dion Lawhorn (21.2 ppg, 7.2 reb/gm) for San Francisco.
Recent Performances: Both teams lost to Cal by 12-13 points. San Francisco suffered a beat-down at the hands of Cal Poly two days after losing to USC by only 5 points, which followed a victory over Colorado State. Pacific has a decent win on their resume on the road at Nevada.
The Verdict
Holy crap, look at that line move. The professionals apparently drilled San Francisco while I was sleeping. I don't trust that Sports Insights number at all (some odd numbers popping up there lately) - is there any reason the public would be favoring unknown San Francisco over unknown Pacific by that margin? Sure, SF's win/loss record looks better, but it still seems way out of whack. Even if Dior Lawhorn and his teammates are like how Charles Barkley described Dwyane Wade and his teammates (Michael Jackson surrounded by a bunch of Tito Jacksons), I'd still take that combo over a team like Pacific comprised of only Marlons and Randys. Not only is Lawhorn the best scorer and rebounder in this game, he's also shooting 50% (12 out of 24) from 3-point range. Three other San Fran starters are averaging at least 10 points per game in addition to Lawhorn, while only one Pacific player (LeDuc at 10.4) can make that claim. Even if the sharp money has sucked a lot of value out of this line, I don't think the points are going to matter tonight.
The Pick: San Francisco +5 +101 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 2.02 units
We should be adding at least one or two more after work tonight (it was a close contest to see which one would get the long write-up treatment), plus NBA/NHL.
2 comments:
One point. The move from +8.5 to +5 was one point too far. Maybe a pass in the future, or at least not a double play. Painful.
Tough break
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