For tonight:
College Football
Western Michigan +2.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
70% support for Rice all along, but there's been either no line movement at some books (but altered juice at least) or a half-point the other way at others. Hopefully, Rice's atrocious defense will fall down on the job once again.
Passing Oregon after I sat around thinking about it all day and watched the number fall down to just +1. We like the reverse line movement, and the public support for Oklahoma State, so I can't fault anybody for playing the Ducks, but Grover thinks the PAC-10 was very weak this year, and I'm not sure how much value is left after the big move.
NBA
Bucks +8 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Public likes the Spurs, line hanging tough all day. That's all I've got to say about this evil league tonight.
College Basketball
South Carolina +2.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
A good team nobody is talking about with Fredrick and Downey in the backcourt and Archie and Holmes up front. Clemson is a good team, also, but we'll take the underrated home dog following the public betting and line retreat.
UAB +5 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Butler always seems to play good fundamental basketball even when they don't have a ton of talent, but UAB has a big enough edge in talent to stay within the number or win straight up. Public over 70% on Butler which is a little bizarre, even after some impressive postseason play recently.
Arkansas +5.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Repeat after me: betting and line movement, betting and live movement. Razorbacks getting some really good production from their bench this year, which has made up for a starting 5 I didn't have high hopes for at the beginning of the season.
That's probably it, unless one of the late west coast games (e.g. Sacramento State) jumps into favor later on. Good luck everybody.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
6 comments:
I have been a reader of your site for awhile - gerat info - love the contrarian thought process - one question: do you always go against line movement even though the fundamental edges favor the team that the line movement is going? For example, 70% was on Rice last night - in my capping, Rice was one of my top plays of the bowl season, especially laying less than 3. Do you weigh fundamental factors or just bet against huge line movement or public opinion? Thanks!
I'm not sure what you mean by "fundamental factors." Are you talking about the teams' statistics, the ability of the players, injuries, and the other traditional handicapping factors?
Yes, fundamental handicapping is comparing the actual talent, scheme, position matchups, in other words, how you think each team matches up physically against the other.....Its rare that you guys make selections just based on the matchups....Seems to me like a mix would be better..But if it works for you, then run with it...Rice and Kansas were two bowl games in which I capped the game to be a mismatch on the field....believe me, it doesnt always work that way but two examples where the betting movement suggested the team that got its butts handed to them....
Steve-
We do look at things beyond line movement, and usually we only make picks if we like both the line movement/consensus data and the "fundamentals." But we do try to look for "fundamentals" that are more informative and less hyped then the numbers people see on ESPN. My slavelike devotion to DVOA numbers in NFL analysis is a good example.
That said, it's really difficult to do with college football. The teams only play 13 games all year, the personnel changes significantly all year, etc. etc. Plus when you get to bowl games, there's precious little inter-conference data. So it gets a little subjective, and subjectivity is the cappers' worst enemy. That said, we do look at certain things that might have more impact than the public realizes. The Andre Smith injury for Alabama is a perfect example.
Obviously I meant Andre Smith suspension, not injury, and personnel changes year to year, not "all year."
I should probably have coffee before posting.
thanks for all of the info......for someone with desk job, wife, two teenage boys, i dont have a lot of time to cap so your site is fantatic and helps me a lot...
Post a Comment