Really Short On Time

A few more for tonight:

College Basketball

Marshall +5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Southern Mississippi +6.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Northern Colorado +6 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

NBA

Grizzlies +10.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

NHL

Risking half a unit each:

Atlanta +170

Minnesota +148

Chicago +170

No idea if there will be more. Unlikely. Good night everybody.

Thanks, Matchbook

Needed every one of those points in the West Virginia game. On baby duty today, so here's the rest of the afternoon, very quickly, risking 1 unit on the positive juice and to win 1 unit on the negative:

Tulane +2.5 +100

Samford +15 -113

New Mexico +5 +102

Kansas State +10 -102

Air Force +8.5 +100

Towson +3.5 -107

Some nice little home dogs in there. Hopefully, I'll get a chance to look at tonight's games later.

Slim Pickin's

Not much jumping out at me in the early afternoon hours. This is it so far:

College Basketball

West Virginia +7 -118, 2.36 units to win 2 units

Line has fallen to +6 -110 at most books already, despite the following levels of support for Lousiville:

Wagerline: 66%
Sports Insights: 81%
Sports Interaction: 82%
Sportsbook: 89%
Carib: 81%

Pomeroy has the spread at only 4, and it looks like a really close game to me. Not sure where the disrespect for the Mountaineers is coming from, but we'll take advantage.

Houston +12.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

With Coleman back from his face-stomping suspension, the Cougars have a good shot at keeping this one close.

NHL

Los Angeles +184, 0.5 units to win 0.92 units

Public likes the huge home favorite, but the Kings are equally good or better on power plays and defending them, so we'll take a flier on the big dog.

Back later. Hoping the rest of the card is not as lame as the early slate.

Friday Night - Taking It Easy

Not much going on this evening. A few to get you through the night:

NBA

Timberwolves +6 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

The mighty LAKERS only giving 6 to the lowly T-Wolves? Come on. Who are they kidding? Those generous sportsbooks, always giving away free money.

Kings ML +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Betting and line movement. Not sure the Bulls should be favored on the road against anybody.

College Basketball

Loyola-Maryland +6.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

Public on Rider, line staying steady. A few points too many. After 3 winning days in a row, I'm probably going to end up wishing I had just passed.

NHL

Nashville +192, 0.5 units to win 0.92 units

Calgary is better...but not this much better.

That's it. Good luck everybody.

Super Bowl XLIII, Part I

I'm not gonna lie to you: if this was a random mid-November game, I'd pass on after maybe a minute or two of analysis. There's just not enough here to make me lean one way or the other. Most of the signs point Steelers, but seven is a lot of points, and there's enough of a disparity between the Arizona Cardinals in good weather and the Arizona Cardinals in bad weather to make we wonder if we should treat them like two completely different teams. But this is the Super Bowl, and this blog exists not just to make money, but also to provide our readers with a service. And since almost every reader we have is gonna make a play of some kind on this game, an official pick is the least we can do. So here it is:

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 +113 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.13 units

I hate the Steelers. I hate their douchebag fans that act like they're they're better than everyone else. News flash, Yinzers: if you were really supporters of your hometown team instead of just front-running assholes, you'd come out for your Pirates, too. But for some reason, I don't see a whole lot of yellow at the park when the Flying LaRoches come through town.

And has anyone ever gotten more undeserved praise than Ben Roethlisberger, except maybe Troy Polamalu? Chris Berman can't stop talking about them even though neither player is his team's star on their side of the ball. And I don't know much about what Hines Ward does to top the list of the NFL's dirtiest players, but if you're the only offensive player to make the list year after year after year, you've gotta be a pretty tremendous asshole.

Now, if I hate the team this much, you can imagine how difficult it was to come to grips with the fact that I'm gonna have to root for them during the four-hour finale of the NFL season. But the stats are just too much to ignore. Pittsburgh's defense is not just good, it's historically good. I'd put them second to the 2000 Ravens in my lifetime. Nobody was even close to them this year. The Cardinals haven't seen anything remotely resembling the Steelers D except maybe the combination of heavy snow and Patriots that shut them down in December.

We almost never pick favorites, and giving a touchdown is painful. But the Cardinals have been getting more hype than any big underdog I can recall. There's no question who has been getting more media attention this week. The World Wide Leader would have you believe that Larry Fitzgerald is so good he makes Jerry Rice look like my flu-ridden fiancee. Thanks to this unprecendented outpouring of media love for the underdog, the Cards are actually getting a majority of the action according to Wagerline and the other services. The split is around 60/40, I believe. Yet the books moved the line only a half-point, and in the Steelers' favor to boot. I doubt the books have an interest here with so much money to be made simply by splitting the action in half. But with a ton of square money in the mix, I have to believe that there are some pretty big fish out there who like the Steelers.

For further reading, I recommend the Football Outsiders Preview, which further highlights the reasons to like the Steelers. DVOA steered us down the right path before the season started ... let's hope it does the same as the season ends.

Look for a possible Under play tomorrow (for many of the same reasons outlined above). And if my laptop starts working again soon, we will try to do a guide to some of the frivolous bets out there on Sunday morning, for those who are in this to amuse themselves instead of to make money.

Thursday Night - Last Minute Picks

Job. Kid. Wife. Blog takes a back seat some days. The picks:

College Basketball

St. Louis +12 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Betting, no line movement, next question.

Hawaii +5.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

La. Tech's center (Cooper) is out which makes this one look real close to me. We'll take the points.

Florida International +3 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units

With Galindo, Hicks, Soto, etc. finally getting healthy, this team is likely very underrated. For example, Pomeroy's ratings don't take injuries into account, so his predictions are based on a lot of games where these guys weren't playing. Hopefully, the linesmakers' ratings are similarly skewed.

Alabama +4.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Very interesting. Arkansas has gone from underrated to overrated, and Alabama has done the opposite.

Wofford +5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Pomeroy has this one at only 3 points. 70% on App State, but line went backwards. I like it.

NHL

Islanders +148, 0.5 units to win 0.74 units

Lightning +134, 0.5 units to win 0.67 units

Maple Leafs (Leaves?) +142, 0.5 units to win 0.71 units

No NBA for a second straight night - I don't know if that's discipline or fear. I'll say discipline. Good luck everybody.

Super Bowl- Please Advise

It's early yet, and I don't plan on posting our Super Bowl plays until Saturday morning. But since I've already gotten a couple inquiries from eager bettors:

My early leans are to play both Steelers -7 and the Under. Which means I'll have to waste the greatest day on the Sports calendar, our Sport-Related National Holiday, cheering on one of my least favorite teams and hoping for a boring game with no fireworks. Your thoughts as to how to deal with this depressing turn of events are welcome in the comments.

Also, a word on prop bets and Super Bowl-related futures: they are almost always bad news. See, the books know that even a Steelers fan is smart enough to see a -110 line and understand that means that he pays $1.10 on a loss and gets $1 on a win. But they also know that most of us (especially the ones betting on the Super Bowl) lack the patience to add up a series of futures odds (e.g. the odds to win the MVP trophy) and figure out how close they get to 1. Nor will they take the time to think things out rationally. They'll just see the big payday they could get on, say, the offchance that the Steelers win, this is one of those rare years that they give the MVP to a defensive player (only 8 times in 42 years, 3 of the last 20, and none of the last 5), and that Troy Polamalu is the one Steeler out of their 11 starters (which also includes the defensive player of the year and several other all-pros) that gets the nod, because Chris Berman and Tom Jackson have told you that he's awesome and a "ball hawk" of some kind. Even though Polamalu, as a safety that doesn't do much blitzing, would probably have to score a TD or get multiple turnovers to win the MVP, and he has grand totals of 17 INTs, 7 forced fumbles, seven sacks and TWO TOUCHDOWNS in 5 years and 88 regular season games?

Admit it- you thought of betting on Polamalu to win the MVP when you saw him up there at 20-1 or some other preposterous number, didn't you? Shame on you.

Anyway, if you do plan to place any of these "funny bets," I strongly advise you to do some line-shopping. Most huge differences among the books have been corrected at this point, but you'll still see a lot of disparity from site to site. I will look at some of these as part of our Super Bowl post and will try to direct you to the better value, even if we don't make any plays on these ourselves.

Eight Is Probably Too Many

But, there were 17 leans or so in college basketball to begin with and this is as far as I could narrow it down. Gonna be a rough ride. The picks, to win 1 unit on the favorites, and risking 1 unit on the dogs:

Providence -2 -102

On the road, without Rautins and Onuaku, I just don't get why everybody is on Syracuse. Are the Orange really shooting less than 50% on the free throws away from the Dome? That's horrible (it's more fun if you say "horrible" like Bill Walton there. Go ahead, try it).

Georgia State +9.5 +103

I'm pretty sure I keep getting my ass kicked on these Colonial games, but I keep playing them. I am what the French call un dumbass.

Villanova +3 -103

OK, I'm listing this as a pick to keep up our contrarian street cred, but secretly, I'm putting my entire retirement fund on Pittsburgh because the books are giving away free money on this one. Pittsburgh is only a 3-point favorite?!? That's insanity! I don't understand how the books stay in business when they are constantly giving away free, easy money to 75% of their customers. That sounds like a really lousy business model. I guess the sportsbooks probably don't really make any money.

Nebraska +4 +100

They did it again! Only 4 points for THE DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPIONS? Crazy. 74% of the wagerline crowd is getting free money tonight. Wait, they still have all the same players as last year, right?

Loyola-Chicago +4.5 -101

Ramblers have really underachieved compared to how I thought they would do before the season started. Betting and line movement suggest they'll be better tonight.

UTEP +5 -102

Houston had a short bench already, but with one of their best players (Coleman) suspended for stomping on Chase Budinger's face, Stefon Jackson will probably cover this line by himself.

Missouri State +6 -110 (WSEX)

I've got to mark this down on my calendar - Pomeroy actually agrees with me on this one, although it's very close (he has SIU by 5). Deep bench for Mo. St. keeps it close.

Kansas State +3 +101

Another home dog in the Big 12 that the public hates. Yummy.

That's it (isn't that enough?). Hockey is already up. Nothing in the NBA, which is strange when 12 games are on the docket tonight. Wiz and Clips were the only ones that even rated a glance, but injuries are really mucking those teams up right now. Good luck everybody.

Wednesday Night Hockey

Finally have a winning night in both the NBA and college basketball, but went 0-3 in hockey. So, in the tradition of getting back on that horse, two picks for tonight, risking half a unit each:

Buffalo +162

Nashville +170

I don't know much about hockey, but I don't get how the public is so in love with the opponents of these teams. Maybe there are injuries I don't know about, but these lines look way off. Of course, this is coming from a guy who just said he doesn't much about hockey, so take that for what it's worth (hint: not much). Back later with hoops.

Tuesday Night Hoops & Pucks

The rest for Tuesday:

College Basketball

Marshall +7.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

It seems like I've backed Marshall a few times already. And it seems like they screw me every time. So, I guess this pick confirms that I'm an idiot.

NHL

Washington +138, 0.5 units to win 0.69 units

Carolina +136, 0.5 units to win 0.68 units

Atlanta +182, 0.5 units to win 0.91 units

Betting and line movement, with a little peek at power play goal percentage just for kicks.

NBA posted earlier, and passing on tennis. A little miffed that when I'm on Roddick as a +300 dog a couple of weeks ago against Djokovic, he gets rolled, and then when I pass in that situation last night, he wins. Super. Can't quite sell myself on Verdasco yet, but good luck to those of you who are on that one.

No Thinking Required

Tuesday night NBA picks, the first one to win 1 unit, the next 2 risking 1 unit:

Kings +13.5 -101

Grizzlies +6 +106

Bobcats +11 +100

The NBA always seems to go better when I don't over-analyze the matchups.

Continuing the Dialogue About Pomeroy Rankings

A couple weeks ago, I briefly touched on some of my concerns about using the Pomeroy rankings as a predictive tool. One game this weekend reminded me that I wanted to explore the topic a little further.

Before I do that, let me say that I love the Pomeroy Rankings. Like DVOA in football and third-order records (among many many other metrics) in baseball, they give us a predictive tool that a huge majority of the "squares" ignore. And for the most part I think it's useful.

But like all tools, it does have a couple problems, and it helps sports bettors if we understand them. There's one in particular that's always bothered me about Pomeroy, and that is its failure to account for teams "taking their foot off the gas" in blowouts. This is particularly important in college basketball because blowouts happen all the time, and because certain teams/styles of play are prone to playing in far more or far fewer blowouts than other teams.

To explain what I'm talking about, let's look at this weekend's Duke-Maryland "game." As you probably saw, Duke kicked the ever-loving shit out of Maryland, 85-44. As you might expect, it's given Duke a substantial cushion atop the Pomeroy rankings, and rightfully so. But I think the system undervalues Duke's performance on Saturday? Why? Well, Duke was winning 60-20 five minutes into the second half. Yes, preposterous. From that point on (most of the second half), Duke outscored Maryland by only one. Maryland poured in 24 more points over 15 minutes, which is the equivalent of a 64-point game on the offensive end. But is it fair to say that "Duke" was playing "Maryland" at that point, for purposes of predictive data? I don't think so. It's pretty clear that the game was over. However, the possessions that took place over those last 15 minutes will be weighed equally with the rest of those teams' respective seasons in the Pomeroy data.

In most cases, anomalies like this are few and far between, and when compiling data over the course of a season, they tend to equalize. But that's not the case in college basketball, where elite teams that play at a fast pace play in a huge number of blowouts and may have played as much as 10% of their seasons thus far with their foot off the gas. I wonder why Pomeroy doesn't simply discount data past a certain point margin/time remaining point in the game. Say, the last 12 minutes if a team is winning by 40 or more, the last 8 minutes if it's 30 or more, and the last 4 minutes if it's 20 or more. What's the harm in that?

I've noticed this concern not because I see fast-paced teams being undervalued, but because I see slow-paced teams being overvalued. To take this to an extreme, imagine, as a player or coach, the difference in your attitude in if you have a 90-70 lead with five minutes to play as compared to a 45-35 lead. Because slowdown, half-court, limited possession teams don't play in blowouts due to their style, they don't have as many "wasted" possessions. Makes sense, right?

This year I'm keeping an eye on Georgetown in this respect. Georgetown is #12 in the Pomeroy rankings despite their 6 losses, mostly due to their ridicuously difficult schedule. But are they overvalued? They've only attempted 915 shots 100 less than anyone else in not-particularly uptempo Big East, so we know they're a slow tempo team (and also one that doesn't do well on the offensive boards). And if you scan their games to date, you'll find a lot of wins with scores in the 50s and 60s and a few wins against cupcakes in which they only scored in the 70s. It's safe to assume that they played hard to the final whistle in most of those games, whereas equivalent performances from an efficiency standpoint by higher tempo teams would have resulted in a lot of garbage time.

Moral of the story: Use Pomeroy. Love Pomeroy. It's as valuable a predictive tool as you'll find out there. But be aware that it may have some limitations. When a snail's-pace team like Washington State finds itself matched up against a team like North Carolina in the tournament (as happened in 2008), be aware of this issue before you play the standard fade of the public sentiment based on Pomeroy's love of the Cougars. And for God's sake, Grover, stop making Bo Ryan's Wisconsin teams your upset Final Four pick in your brackets just because Pomeroy keeps telling you they are a top ten team.

I'm nothing more than an interested amateur when it comes to all these fancypants numbers, so comments/critiques are welcome and encouraged in the comments.

Is It November Again Already?

Ouch. That was an ass-whooping we took yesterday in hoops. Probably working late, so getting these in now:

NBA

Wizards +4 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

Suns -4 is a gift! Books giving away free money tonight!

Knicks +1 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Public likes T-Mac. Line going the other way.

College Basketball

Youngstown State +4.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Nice home dog for the good guys tonight.

Iona +10 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Siena is good, but Iona has played well since Springer returned from injury. Deep bench and double-digits to work with.

That's it. On a losing streak, so buyer beware.

I'm Probably Gonna Regret This...

In the Australian Open, adding:

J. Blake +172 over J. Tsonga, 0.5 units to win 0.86 units

Like I said before, I'm usually looking for spots to fade Blake because he is often overrated (because he's well-known and American) and has a tendency to melt down when much is expected of him. Here, the hotter name on the circuit is Tsonga, but he has been far from dominant so far and had to retire from the Medibank Open the week before the Australian started, so I think he's getting a little too much credit tonight. No pressure on Blake for a change, so maybe he'll surprise everybody with a great performance on his favorite surface.

I like the Simon pick better for tonight, but if we can get one out of the two, we can live with that. Good night everybody.

Sunday Afternoon Basketball

Five college hoops picks for Sunday. Putting them all in now, so I don't have to kick myself for forgetting to go back and put them in later (like Washington yesterday, dammit):

Vanderbilt +1 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

People out there seem to like this Florida team a lot more than I do. I guess recent back-to-back national championships can do that.

Marshall +7 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

70% on Central Florida, line not budging. Same old story, nothing interesting here.

Toledo +5 -114, 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Now, there is something interesting here. 73% on Ball State, line down to 4.5 at many books. Pomeroy's system has Ball State winning by 5 points, but his system is based on win/loss margins up to this point in the season (with strength of opponent factored in). However, Ball State's best player, Anthony Newell, averaging 15 points and 9 rebounds per game (both #1 on the team), went down with an injury two weeks ago, and this is NOT factored in to Pomeroy's system, which is based on how well the team did in all the games, including those in which Newell played (which is almost all of them since he just played his last game on 1/10/09). So, since there have only been 3 games that Newell has missed, the system appears to predict that Ball State would win this game by 5 points, if Newell were in the lineup, but he's not, which should be worth at least a couple of points considering how productive he was. That makes so much sense to me, I must be getting it wrong.

Ohio State +3 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Hmmmm. The #7 team in the country only a 3-point favorite against an unranked team? Not buying it.

West Virginia pick -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Go back to the Ohio State explanation, but replace "#7 team" with "#4 team" and replace "only a 3-point favorite" with "an underdog at most books" and there you have it. I was surprised that the pick'em line was available at WSEX and not at Matchbook. Pays to shop around.

Nothing looks good in the NBA right now, but there are a few lines that just came out this morning, so we'll see. Also, as mentioned this morning, I'm still considering hitching my wagon to James Blake's star tonight. Maybe I'm still a little delusional from my recent illness. Good luck everybody.

Come Back Pinnacle! And A Tennis Pick

Dear Mr. Pinnacle: We know that those dirty Republicans snuck the internet gambling law onto an anti-terrorism bill in the dead of the night and dared anybody to vote against it because they would be pro-terrorist if they did, but they're gone now. It's OK, they can't hurt you anymore. The Democrats won't come after you, I promise. As long as we're not hurting anybody else, they'll let us spend our own money however we like (what a crazy concept).

OK, after that plea, all of us filthy Americans should be able to get back on Pinnacle soon. You're welcome. I really wanted to get in a tennis pick last night for Sunday night, but Pinnacle was the only game in town. Even this morning, there aren't many places with lines up yet (Pinnacle probably had them up 24 hours ago), so it looks like we're going to Bookmaker:

G. Simon -110 (Bookmaker) over G. Monfils, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Two young Frenchman facing off in the 4th round, but Simon appears definitively better on the hardcourt than Monfils. Last year, Simon won the title at Indianapolis, made the semi-finals at the Rogers Masters, and the finals at the Mutua Masters in Madrid (which was indoors). Monfils upset Nadal a couple of weeks ago, which is what may be keeping this line low. Line steadily creeping up, so I'm getting it in now.

Ironically, the only reason I even have a Bookmaker account is because CRIS did the same thing as Pinnacle (banned Americans) after the Senate's dirty tricks, and transferred all of their American accounts to Bookmaker. This is usually the point in a tournament where you're looking for Blake to lose a match that he should have won, but as a decent-sized underdog tonight, I'm actually considering backing him. Maybe I'll talk myself off the ledge before tonight.

Worst Loss Ever?

The end of that Houston game was unbelievable. Not only did they let Arizona storm back to tie and send the game to overtime, but the end of overtime was the worst kick in the crotch I can remember. I've always thought that if the game is tied at the end of regulation, the underdog bettors should get paid or at least get their money back, but I know that isn't the rule.

Down by 4 points with 7 seconds left, Houston rushes up the court. With 2 seconds left, Arizona (Jordan Hill, I think) gets called for a bonehead foul (you're up 4 with 2 seconds left, moron). Fine with me, he only needs to make one to seal the deal. Well, of course, the Houston kid misses BOTH shots. THEN, with 2 seconds left and DOWN FOUR POINTS, Houston fouls on the inbounds pass (really, you're going to get the ball twice in 2 seconds and score twice? really?) and the Arizona kid sinks both free throws to end the game.

Arizona wins by 6 points. We had Houston +5.5. Screw me. No more picks tonight after that colonoscopy. I'm done. Shit.

The Next (Last?) Set of Saturday Picks

This should get us through the 8 PM Eastern start times. There are a few more under consideration for later games, but we'll see how much time/energy is left to look at those later:

College Basketball

Houston +5.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Wagerline: 70% Arizona
Line movement: From Arizona -6 down to -5.5
Pomeroy: Arizona by 3

Wofford +20.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Several Southern Conference games under consideration for tonight, but we're going with this one and against the media darling that is Davidson.

Northwestern +6 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Can they pull off another shocker on the road in the state of Michigan? Line movement seems to think they will at least keep it close. Pomeroy numbers have Michigan by only 1.

NBA

Grizzlies +1 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

The destruction they suffered at the hands of the Knicks last night sets this home dog up nicely.

Kings +7 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Line movement too much to ignore even though public support for the Bucks is not overwhelming.

Tennis

M. Cilic +200 over J. Del Potro, 0.5 units to win 1 unit

The two picks I mentioned as passes last night would have broken even, but Gasquet put up a hell of a fight losing 10-12 in the 5th set. Tonight, we've got the big underdog where I just can't accept that the margin between these two is as big as this line suggests. Both are really good hardcourt players, and both have won hardcourt tournaments both last year and earlier this month. Should be a great one and win or lose, I'm happy to be on either side at this number. Good luck everybody.

I Need A Nap

The rest for the afternoon, then relaxing for a couple of hours:

William & Mary +7.5 -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit

Another team I think I'm playing too often. Maybe another loss today will break me of the habit.

Baylor +7.5 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit

Line down to 7 at many places, with the public leaning to Oklahoma.

La Salle +4 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

It's amazing how UMass can have a guy (Gaffney) averaging 11 rebounds per game and still be so awful on the boards.

Western Carolina +4 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Line starting to move, getting it down now.

Not much on the explanation front there, I know, but I'm wiped out. Back later.

And There It Is

There's the line movement I was wondering if we would see:

Auburn +3.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Everything else comes up roses for this game, I was just a little concerned about the move up to -5 earlier. False move? Could be.

Also, apparently that Northeastern game time was moved from Noon to 7 PM tonight, so jumped the gun on that one a little bit. Still, if the line keeps dropping, and it covers, I'll look like a genius. An accidental genius.

Saturday's First Batch

College hoops picks for this afternoon:

Northeastern +4 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

65% on Old Dominion, line holding steady. Pomeroy has this as a 1-point game, and if this line doesn't drop between now and tip-off, we'll refund all the money you paid for these picks today.

The Citadel +6 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

I feel like I've been over-rating this team all season, but just looked and they're 8-3 against the spread so maybe not. I like Charleston, but a 15-3 team only giving 5-6 points against a lightly regarded 9-10 team is a little too fishy to pass. Pomeroy agrees with this one, too, so it's getting scary around here.

Oklahoma State +4 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Line already down to 3.5 at some places and I think it will go lower before game time at 4 PM Eastern, which is why I'm gonna go ahead and get this one in now. Better team getting points here, as I think OK State's offensive advantages outweigh Nebraska's defensive edge (they also play lower-scoring games [slower pace?], which makes the defensive stats look better than maybe they are). No public consensus here, so feel free to write this one off as square and ignore.

Back later. Hopefully, more games will jump out at me in the later groups of games.

Friday Night NBA

The NBA is probably the only sport we're getting involved with tonight. Feeling a little better today, thanks for asking. The picks:

Pacers +1 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Public likes the Rockets on the road without T-Mac and Ron Ron. Line movement likes the home team. Guess who we're siding with?

Grizzlies +5.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Really? Seventy percent of wagerline has hopped on the Knicks bandwagon?

Timberwolves -1 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

This was posted as a comment on another blog about the Hornets after the line move in this game:

I had it at -2, I'll just put a little more now that it's at +1! Say we had a 60% chance before, now we've gotta be close to 70%.

Right, the books were sort of trying to give away money at first with NO -2, but then after taking more than 75% on the bets on New Orleans, they decided to REALLY give away some free money on this game by dropping the line 3 points. I keep worrying that with the "information superhighway" out there I keep hearing about, the recreational bettors are going to get more sophisticated, but every day there is plenty of evidence to the contrary. Think, people! For God's sake, the Hornets are starting Sean Marks at center! And Ely at power forward! Think!

Warriors +6.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Fading the Cavs has not been a profitable proposition so far this season, but we'll keep tilting at this windmill for a little while longer. Injuries are typically baked into the lines, but I don't think the random bettor is noticing that Z and West are OUT and Biedrins and Ellis are back tonight, they just see LEBRON vs. a lousy team and start drooling. A 32-8 team only favored by 6.5 over a 13-30 team? Here again, the bookies are putting out "gift" lines to help the economy, right? Silly.

In college hoops, almost pulled the trigger on Brown because of the screwy line (Yale won AT Brown by 8 points last week, now only favored by 5 over them at home?), but it didn't quite make the cut. In tennis, passing Verdasco and Gasquet. A lot easier to find value in the early rounds, when folks are focused on the big names. Once you get to a point where almost all the players are big names, it harder to find an edge. Good luck everybody.

Fading Fast

Only a small amount of energy left, and once I cave in and take the night-time medicine I'll be down for the count. So, just a couple more and then calling it a night.

College Basketball

Tennessee Tech +7 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

The usual here: public heavy on Austin Peay, but depending on your book, the line has either held steady or dropped. Tennessee Tech has a definite size advantage in this game (A. Peay's starting forwards are 6-7, 6-5, and 6-5), and should be able to stay close.

San Diego +3.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Ditto on betting and line movement. Brandon Johnson's injury is a real heartbreaker for San Diego, but his absence is surely baked into this line already. Even without Johnson, the Toreros have enough talent to beat the Gaels at home tonight. And how about those mascot names? Nice.

Tennis

M. Fish +150 over M. Baghdatis, 0.50 units to win 0.75 units

That makes two picks tonight where I'm going against somebody who made me money in the last round. Very close matchup so I'm happy to get this underdog number either way, but the line movement signals Fish as well. I haven't heard about any injuries, but Baghdatis is often playing with something nagging him or suffers an injury during a match (he's the T-Mac of tennis!), so a tiny bit of extra value for any of his opponents. I don't think this game starts until about 5 AM Eastern Friday morning, but you're on your own to figure that out. Line is +130 or +140 at most other books, so thanks again Matchbook.

That's it. Can't argue with Jacksonville State or Washington State in hoops, but I'm keeping it light tonight. Thought about playing the underdog Wawrinka in tennis tonight as well, because that matchup looks awfully close, but the line movement makes me think I might be wrong on that one. Good luck everybody.

Dazed and Confused

Medication caused me to fall asleep at about 1:30 PM and I just woke up 45 minutes ago, so I'm gonna put the early picks in now, and then come back in an hour or two for the rest. Also, because of the admitted lack of preparation today, please look at the games yourself tonight before doing anything (actually, that's great advice for any night).

College Basketball

West Virginia +5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Until the Georgetown kids realize that rebounding is part of the game, I'm not going to have any problem fading them. 75% of wagerline on the Hoyas.

Wisconsin-Green Bay +9 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Before the start of the season, I thought Green Bay looked much better than Butler, so kudos to the Bulldogs for putting together such a great season so far. There's some good coaching going on down there. Still, I don't think the difference between these teams is as large as the line would suggest (Pomeroy says 8, by the way). My only concern is that Wis-GB forward Chop Tang (8.7 ppg) has left the team, but that's mostly a concern because it means I won't have many future opportunities to say the name Chop Tang which is one of the best around.

Tennis

M. Cilic -152 over D. Ferrer, 0.76 units to win 0.50 units

This might look a little bit odd after my comments a couple of days ago about how good Ferrer is. Well, he cashed for us then, and he is a great player who doesn't get a lot of credit for his non-clay game. BUT, this Cilic guy is awesome on this surface, winning the Chennai Open in India a couple of weeks ago and the Pilot Pen last August. At just 20 years old, Cilic doesn't have the history that Ferrer does, but there aren't many players who can compete with him on the hardcourt.

I think the rest of the men's tennis matches don't get started until 3:30 AM Eastern (based on my probably horrible calculation of the time zones), so no rush on the rest - if there are any more, I'll have them up in an hour or so. Thought about the Magic in the NBA, but came to my senses and talked myself out of it. Back in a little while. Alright, alright, alright....

What The Hell?

Another night where the hockey and tennis picks were the winners (hoops just broke even). I think we're going to start another blog (hey, if Moneyline can have 5 different blogs, why can't we?) called "Sports We Know Nothing About." It should be wildly successful.

Wednesday Night Buckets

Tonight's hoops picks:

NBA

Blazers -1 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Always looking for opportunities to fade media-darling teams like the Cavs (or Lakers, Celtics, etc.). As expected, huge support for the Cavs, but line goes the other way. Without Big Z, and on the road, I just don't see them winning this one.

Wizards +2.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

This line looked weird to begin with, because I thought the Kings would be favored by more than this at home against the awful Wiz (not that the Kings aren't awful). Close to 70% of the wagerline folks agreed and picked the Kings, but the line moved to -2.5 instead of going higher. Sold.

College Basketball

Georgia State +8.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Line move favors the home team. Need to keep Maynor from exploding.

William & Mary +5.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

This line is down to 5 at several places, with 72% support for Hofstra. I think I've picked William & Mary several times this season, but I'm not sure if I've actually won any of them...

South Carolina -1 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Game. Cocks. Calathes can't do it all, but bettors seem to think he can tonight.

Tulane +6 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

A nice little C-USA home dog. Line falling fast - smart money is on the Green Wave.

Auburn +12.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Probably my favorite, which is scary. Meeks getting a lot of media love, but Auburn is solid up and down the roster, except for Kovortney Barber's free throw shooting. Somebody out there with enough money to move the line agrees with me.

That's probably it (isn't that enough?). Good luck everybody.

Shaking Out the Sillies

The only two sports that were profitable last night, let's knock out the goofy sports first:

NHL

Los Angeles +146, 0.50 units to win 0.73 units

Over 70% on the Avs tonight, but line has taken a small step back. Kings better on power plays and penalty kills, so if they're not worn out from back-to-back road games, they've got a good chance tonight.

Tennis

M. Ancic -148 over I. Karlovic, 0.74 units to win 0.50 units

Watched this line rise about 50 points before jumping on board, so I'm a dumbass (not really a news flash). Ancic is a better all-around player than the giant Karlovic. If "Dr. Ivo" smashes 50 aces, he could pull this one out, but I think the better player prevails.

D. Sela -120 (WSEX) over V. Hanescu, 0.60 units to win 0.50 units

This line has only gone up about 30 points since I first saw it, so didn't lose quite as much value here, but wanted to see if the line went along with my thoughts. Sela finished the hardcourt season strongly this Fall, reaching the Finals at the China Open in September and beating Hanescu on a hardcourt in the Kremlin Cup in October. Better hardcourt player, line moved with him, works for me.

Back later with hoops, once I narrow my leans down to something reasonable.

Winning and Covering The Spread Are Not the Same Thing

To most readers, that's horribly obvious, but I keep seeing people on boards and elsewhere saying things like this:

Whatever the spread tomorrow take UNC. Clemson has never won at the Dean Dome.

Now, to be fair, the guy who posted this as a comment on another blog last night lists his occupation in his profile as "Professonal High-Fiver" and the number one film on his list of favorite movies is "Dumb and Dumber." But, still, even if you're not very smart, I don't understand why this is such a complicated idea to wrap your brain around:

1. The fact that the players who were on the Clemson squad 2 years ago, or 5 years ago, or 20 years ago, didn't beat the players who were on the UNC team in Chapel Hill those years has absolutely nothing to do with what is going to happen when THIS YEAR'S Clemson players compete vs. THIS YEAR'S UNC players.

2. Even if the fact that the Tigers haven't won in Chapel Hill makes it unlikely that they will win there tonight (it has nothing to do with it, but follow me here), that is a completely different question from whether or not they will lose by more than 14 points tonight. According to the quote above, it doesn't make any difference what the spread is - because UNC always beats Clemson at home, that somehow means they will always beat them by an unexpectedly large margin. Does that make any sense at all? Last year's game in Chapel Hill ended regulation in a tie and went to overtime. Does that make you feel like the Heels will always beat ANY spread? Ridiculous.

It doesn't even look like Clemson is a pick tonight at this moment, but I just needed to get that off my chest, because I see this twisted thinking all the time. E.g. Team A has lost their last 7 road games, so they won't cover a 12-point spread in their next road game. Huh? Even if they do lose straight-up again, that doesn't mean they will lose by 13, for Christ's sake! OK, I'm done. Picks later.

One More - From The NBA

Uno mas:

Kings +9 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Not a huge consensus on this one (a little over 60% on Denver at most consensus sites), but the 72% number on the Nuggets at Carib (based on 3,304 bets) combined with a full point drop in the line (plus an overdose of Nyquil) makes this a pick. Kings playing well, and seeing Dahntay Jones out there instead of Melo can't hurt.

Sorry for all the piecemeal posts today, but I never knew when I was going to be awake or asleep. Going to sleep now. Good luck everybody.

Executive Order #1 - Obama Demands More Picks

Still feeling like ass, so just the picks without the customary ramblings:

College Basketball

Akron +3.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Colorado +10 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

Eastern Michigan +4.5 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

These three are in additional to Delaware which was posted this morning.

Tennis

V. Troicki +160 (WSEX) over T. Robredo, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units

M. Baghdatis +140 over R. Soderling, 0.50 units to win 0.70 units

M. Fish -150 over S. Bolelli, 0.75 units to win 0.50 units

D. Ferrer -174 over D. Hrbaty, 0.87 units to win 0.50 units

Maybe more hockey/hoops for games starting at 9 PM or later if I get a chance to look again. Depending on medication status, no promises.

Old Time Hockey

Just getting these out of the way before I try (again) to narrow down the college basketball leans for tonight. Risking half a unit on each:

Anaheim +128

Betting and line movement. Duucks better on the power play and in goal

Carolina +154

I don't love the positive line movement on this one, but it wasn't a huge move, and 78% of wagerline is on Sidney Crosby. The Pens own the Hurricanes!

Los Angeles +166

Won some money betting on the Wild yesterday, now we'll try it going against them. Big support for the home team, reverse line move, big number.

Couple of later games that might also make the cut. Back later.

Snowed In and Sick

Looks like I'm not going to work today, so I could hang around watching this college basketball line all day, but because I think it's going to keep dropping, I'm getting it in now:

Delaware +7.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Line dropping to 7 already at some books, even with 70% of the wagerline crowd on Drexel. I like Delaware better offensively, while Pomeroy has Drexel with the edge on defense. I wouldn't be surprised with a straight-up win, but I'm happy to take the points on this one.

Back later.

MLK Night

Running late, here's the rest:

NBA

Grizzlies +4 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Bucks +6 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

NHL

Minnesota +178, 0.5 units to win 0.89 units

Tennis

T. Haas -218 over E. Schwank, 1.09 units to win 0.50 units

I. Kunitsyn +160 over I. Ljubicic, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units

Good luck everybody.

MLK Day

Not a lot of interesting plays jumping out at me today, but for the afternoon hours, we've got 3:

NBA

Bobcats +5 +101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Hate the positive/forward line movement, but 80% on the Spurs. 80%!

Wizards +5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Public likes the Warriors, but line hasn't budged.

NHL

Islanders +244, 0.5 units to win 1.22 units

So little in hoops, decided to look at hockey. Came up with just one for the afternoon. Blues were a very close pass.

Back later.

Australian Open Tennis - Round 1

Well, I thought this tournament started tomorrow (WSEX has 1/19 as the date for all of the matchups), but it really begins tonight. So, just had time to look at a few, but I think I found a couple of decent picks:

J. Nieminen -122 over P. Mathieu (Matchbook), 1.22 units to win 1 unit

Mathieu has not been a very good hardcourt player in his career, but because the seeds are heavily dependent on the world rankings, he is seeded in the Open at #28, even though most of his success comes on clay courts. That's good for us, because we get a pretty short price on Nieminen, who lost to Nadal in the Quarterfinals here last year and was a finalist in one of the hardcourt warmups (Medibank Open) for this event last week, defeating several good players along the way, including Novak Djokovic. Think of the unseeded player favored over a seeded player like finding an unranked basketball team favored over a ranked team. That would picque your interest, right?

S. Querrey +115 over P. Kohlschreiber (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.15 units

This was a really good find, if I do say so myself. Querrey is young, but he is best on the hardcourts and has had his best Slam results at the Australian. He was a Finalist in another one of the hardcourt tuneup events (Heineken Open) last week. Kohlschreiber was also at the Heineken, but was forced to withdraw with a shoulder injury just 3 days ago. Doesn't sound like he's in top form, but because he is seeded (#32) and Querrey is not, we're getting a decent number here. When I first saw this line at WSEX, it was +120, but has dropped a little in the past couple of hours, which is usually a good sign to us as well. Famed tennis trainer Nick Bollettieri thinks Querrey will have his breakout season this year, but of course, you have to read Nick's site with the knowledge that he seems to be partial to American players and to those who have attended his academy in Florida. This one looks so good, it's probably a sure loser.

Now that's really it for today. I'm probably supposed to say something cute with "mate" at the end, but I just don't have the energy today.

The Compulsory Round

As predicted earlier, one more pick in the NBA:

Thunder +1 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Nothing new to discuss here. Move along. I'm trying not to curse about missing the Raptors pick by one lousy point.

That's probably it for today, but if I find time later, I might look over the first round lines for the Australian Open. We're world famous for our tennis picks, after all.

Sunday Afternoon Hoops, Gettin' Good Juice

Some excellent juice out there today on the games I like at Matchbook. Maybe that's a bad sign. After all the time and effort put into yesterday, we ended up 5-5-1, which is really annoying. The afternoon plays:

NBA

Raptors +3 -101, 2.02 units to win 2 units

As usual, where you've got around 70% on the favorite and the line goes the other way, you're probably going to see us on the other side. All those little bets on the Suns, and they can't measure up to the big bets coming in from the professionals on Toronto. We'd rather be on the side of the big professional gamblers than the legions of $20 bettors. And, by the way, has nobody else noticed that the Suns just aren't that good?

College Basketball

Georgia +7.5 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

Not a huge consensus on Kentucky, but with the line holding steady or even dropping to 7 (at Pinnacle, I think), this one just barely squeaks in. After all the attention paid to Meeks' 54-point game in the win over Tennessee a few days ago, the linesmakers surely had to shade this toward the Wildcats at least a little bit. Playing at home, with good production off the bench, and Kentucky maybe in a letdown spot, Bulldogs keep it close.

Seton Hall +18.5 +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units

No consensus on this one at all (we're going to have to hand in our contrarian club card), but a line move toward the Hall, against a popular team like UConn who aren't really burying a lot of teams this season, seals the deal.

Missouri State +12.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

These two teams played to a regulation tie a couple of weeks ago. With the public slightly on Illinois State, the line has either held steady of taken a small retreat. Pomeroy has the Redbirds by 11 in this one, so at least one smart person out there is on my side.

Well, I see that the Thunder are playing a game tonight, which means there's a 99.7% chance that I'll be back later to make at least one pick for tonight. Haven't really looked at it yet, but it's amazing how the books/public continue to under-rate these guys every time. They're 27-14 ATS on the season, and have covered 15 out of their last 18 spreads, but folks are still betting against them in droves. Good for us. Good luck everybody.

Saturday Night Fever

OK, I'm recovered from the Yellow Jacket meltdown, but I still think you should give whoever they play the rest of the season a few extra points just for intelligence reasons. The rest of the hoops for tonight:

NBA

Bobcats +2.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

The usual: 70% on the Blazers, but it's still not enough money to move the line. I think the Blazers will miss Blake more than they realize.

College Basketball

Eastern Michigan +4 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

A couple of awful teams. Even with a financial interest at stake, it would tough to make myself watch this one. Yuck.

Marshall +9.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Public likes the home team, Tulsa, which is probably 98% due to their close 1-point loss to Memphis (Memphis!) in their last game. Line moved the opposite direction. Well-balanced scoring for Marshall, and a deep bench. Go Herd.

Providence +1 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Down to a Pick at some books already. Marquette just looks too easy, and the sportsbooks don't make their millions by putting out "gift" lines and giving away free money. No matter how many square handicappers put together impressive-looking records over the course of a week or a month, I refuse to believe that this is the business plan the books are using. Nothing impressive to be found in Marquette's road results so far this season. Pomeroy is pretty significantly at odds with me on this, by the way, predicting Marquette by 5, so don't say you weren't warned.

Montana +7.5 -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit

It's +7 at most places (again, thanks Matchbook) with the public on Weber State at the opening line of 7.5.

That's probably it. Passes in the NBA were Heat and Clippers, as scary as that sounds. In the NCAA, the last teams to miss the cut were NC-Wilmington, Western Carolina, San Francisco, and Cal. When all of those win, I'll be smashing a few bottles over my head. I'll take photos in the emergency room and post them in a few days. Good luck everybody.

The Next Batch

Holy crap, these Georgia Tech players are dumb as rocks. Complete morons. It's really unbelievable. That was the most painful push I've watched in a while. Three more college basketball picks for the afternoon/evening:

Arizona State +6 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

68% on the popular Bruins, line hasn't budged. Arizona State's 12-point loss on the road at USC in their last game combined with UCLA's blowout of Arizona by 23 points in their last game really sets this one up nicely.

Colorado State +16.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

Utah is better than Colorado State, but not that much better.

South Carolina +9 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Betting pretty equal, but a big line move. Backcourt scoring for the Gamecocks keeps them in this one.

Still pissed about the overtime push with Georgia Tech. I'll remember for the rest of the season that these guys are idiots. Even on athletic scholarships, how do they let these guys into college? Also pissed about passing Northern Iowa. Speaking of which, the guaranteed winners (passes) for the next couple of hours are Georgia Southern, Texas Tech, and Ohio. You're welcome.

NFL Conference Championships

Two huge games tomorrow ... and at the moment, we are looking at passing on both. We've looked and looked and just don't see an angle. If you put a gun to me head and forced me to pick the games, I'd probably go Arizona and Pittsburgh. But honestly, I could easily pick the other teams tomorrow morning. Both games are pretty much 50/50 in my book.

Sorry. I know it's a big day for wagering, but if there's no angle, sometimes the smart money is to stand pat.

Afternoon in the Association

Just one in the NBA so far:

Nets +6.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

73% on the defending champs, line not going anywhere. As ugly as it looks, that's a pick. Hopefully, the Celtics miss Perkins more than the Nets miss Yi. Back in a couple hours.

Noon in the ACC

Getting a late start today, but thought I would go ahead and get the early picks in now, before real life starts to get in the way:

Georgia Tech +5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Betting is pretty equally split, so I understand if folks want to pass this one. But, looking at the talent on these teams, this line is a few points too high, in my personal uninformed opinion (Square Alert!). I've seen a few NC State games, and it's painful to watch, because they are playing without any guards that can play at all. Awful. They've got 2 decent big men (McCauley & Costner), but most of the time those guys would rather shoot jump shots than get their hands dirty in the paint. Yellow Jackets solid up and down the line-up, and they should win this one straight-up.

Maryland +4 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

This line is 3.5 or even 3 at most books, so once again, thanks to Matchbook for providing a better alternative. 65% of wagerline on Florida State, but line has dropped up to a full point at most places, as mentioned in the first sentence. That would be enough in itself, but I also like the player matchups here. FSU's point guard (Douglas) is good, but the Terps counter with Vasquez which cancels out the edge FSU might have in that spot against a lot of teams. Before the season started, I would have predicted that Echefu and crew in the frontcourt would have a definitive edge against Terps, but it hasn't turned out that way so far. Another rare game where Pomeroy's predictor agrees with me (he's got FSU by 2).

Back in a little while. After 4 winning days in a row, and 6 out of the last 7 (jinx!), I really need to find time to update the records today.

The Hudson Miracle Pilot Loves Our Picks

OK, not really, but that Hudson River landing seems to be the only thing folks want to talk about today. On to the picks:

College Basketball

Yale +3 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Don't know anything about Yale or Brown, except that I've met a lot of guys who went to Yale and they're all douchebags. Putting that aside, this looks like the right play. 74% of wagerline on the home team, but the line dropped a full point today. Fair enough. I thought all the Ivy league teams played on Friday night?

NBA

76ers +3 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

On the fence about this one all day, but I can't decide whether a rusty Elton Brand playing in this game would help or hurt the Sixers so I'm disregarding it and going with the betting and line move. I've seen others that are supporting the Spurs because "they just beat the Lakers," but to us, that's actually a great reason to go the other way.

Thunder +4 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

It's beginning to be like the compulsory round in gymnastics - if the Thunder are playing, it's almost a sure thing that we'll be playing them.

Grizzlies +4.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

70% of wagerline on the Jazz, on the road, with Boozer and Millsap on the shelf. Not bloody likely.

Timberwolves +8 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Betting. Line movement. Rinse. Repeat.

That's it for tonight. Out for a few beers, then back home to put the kid to bed and start looking at the college games for tomorrow.

We Will Bury You!

Our friend at The Money Line Journal has just tipped us off to another blog using a very similar name as ours. I was hoping it was a blog devoted to our favorite movie/Phil Collins song, but alas, it's another sports handicapping site. Fortunately, it looks like it's primarily devoted to european soccer, which is not something we've gotten too involved in so far (Grover is thinking about it), except for a few Euro Cup picks last year.

The cease and desist letter will be in the mail by Monday morning. If that doesn't work, we'll ask Vegas Watch to add him to his "Fades" list, which will ensure his early demise, or at least some healthy ridicule. If there's one thing we've learned from other blogs recently, a good feud is a great way to drive traffic!

Thursday Hoops

Couldn't find the balls to take the 30-point favorites, but did play these:

NBA

Bulls +7.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

So juicy. This one looks so wrong, I'll be kicking myself later for not making this a two-unit pick. Public loves LeBron, but the bookies diagree. We'll go with the bookies.

College Basketball

Denver +8 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

A full point drop today even though the public consensus is not that impressive. The line move, combined with Pomeroy's endorsement (his system predicts a 6-point win by North Texas), just squeaked this one into the mix.

Loyola-Chicago +6.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

I was fairly sure that this line would drop, so I should have just grabbed it at +7 this morning. Big love for Butler, but the line says not so fast.

Middle Tennessee State +3.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Western Kentucky is the most popular favorite on the board today, so here again I should have just played it without waiting for the line drop, so if WKU wins by 4, I'll be a unhappy camper. Still, the line move makes me think I'm not crazy for circling this one last night when the lines came out. Also, for the Pomeroy fans, this makes TWO picks in the same night that aren't contrary to his prediction (WKU by 2), which is probably a new record for me.

Youngstown State +9.5 -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit

Another public favorite tonight in Wisconsin-Milwaukee, but the public isn't kicking in enough money to keep the opening line afloat. That's right up our alley.

Looking at one or two for later. Good luck everybody.

Can A 30-Point Favorite Be Contrarian?

If Loyola-Marymount continues to get 70% support at Wagerline, with the line moving even higher than where it opened at -29, are we going to have to seriously consider taking St. Mary's -30 tonight? Holy shit, I think this website might implode if that happens. Pomeroy predicts a 29-point win, so it's not the craziest notion...

Wednesday at 9 PM

One more for each:

NBA

Spurs -2.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

The mighty Lakers as the underdog. That's almost worth a play without the line move.

College Basketball

Colorado State +8 -116, 1.16 units to win 1 unit

That line move (finally) back to 7.5 at most books sealed the deal. Even Pomeroy has this one just inside the number.

Cal State Northridge was looking like a great pick (at full strength, definitely a better team than Riverside), but with their leading scorer (Tresvant) sitting this one out for personal/legal reasons (?), that's a decent excuse for a pass on a night where I've got plenty of action already. Good luck everybody.

We Can Build On This!

Both an indication that we'll probably have a couple more picks later and also a farewell to sound-bite machine Herm Edwards, who is not likely to retain his job very much longer (like the rest of the country). The early games:

NBA

Wizards +4.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Thunder +5.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Around 70% or more on the other side of these picks, but the lines have gone the other way, which is what we like to see.

College Basketball

Towson +9 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Close to 70% on the other side (VCU) here as well, but line has been frozen at 9 since last night. We'll take the home team.

William & Mary +6 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Another home dog in the Colonial. The public loves former Cindarella George Mason, but their money is not enough to budge this line. I wonder who's putting the money on the Bill & Mary side to keep this line steady? Hmmmmmm.....

Southern Methodist +2 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

We would like to be getting a couple of extra points with the road team, but with 74% of the wagerline crowd on Rice (along with 89% at Sports Insights, 79% at Sports Interaction, 80% at Sportsbook, & 92% at Carib [not sure I believe that last one]), and the line dropping from Rice -3 to Rice -2.5, this one was a no-brainer.

I'm sure there will be a couple more a little later, but it's hard work trying to weed some out when there's a big card like tonight. Does that recent little line move diqualify Penn State? Is 57% on Western Michigan not enough to justify a play on Toledo? After 3 up-and-down moves already, is Hofstra too scary? Back later with the rest.

Tuesday Night Basketball

I almost feel guilty about that Louisville cover last night, but I'm not giving the money back. 99% of the time, I'm on the underdog that goes into overtime and misses the spread. Tonight's picks:

College Basketball

Buffalo +5.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Subjectively, I don't see how Akron is that much better Buffalo. Just don't see it, even playing at Akron. I've never watched a game in the Zips home gym, but I would imagine we're not talking about Cameron Indoor Stadium here. Objectively, most folks are on Akron, but the line has retreated.

Central Florida +10 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Another line retreat in the face of decent support for UAB. Jermaine Taylor and a much deeper bench keep UCF within single digits.

Kansas State +7.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

The reigning National Champion getting 70% of the love from the public, while poor Kansas State is still pining for Michael Beasley. If Kansas is that much better, why hasn't the line gone up from the opener of Kansas -8.5 instead of dropping?

Northern Iowa +4 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Another 70% favorite in this one (Evansville), but no movement in the line. If the Purple Aces get spanked, do they get Purple Asses? I'm freaking hilarious.

Georgia State +12 +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units

If neither team gets 55 points, I imagine it's gonna be tough for ODU to cover this spread. I'm a little concerned about this line, since Georgia State just beat Old Dominion at home 10 days ago. Is the ODU homecourt edge worth 13 points? Maybe. I just hope it's not worth exactly 14 points, because I'll be kicking myself for not taking Georgia State +13 -108, even if the way I went was the right way to go.

NBA

Kings +7.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Passing Bobcats and Grizzlies because of injury question marks, but I haven't seen any such worries here. Kings are playing hard and keeping games close lately, even if they're not getting the straight-up wins. Sounds like my Thunder, although I fear that my love affair with OKC may be coming to an end as people are beginning to catch on.

Way too many picks on a night with so few games, but I weeded out as many as I reasonably could. I thought Tulsa would be a no-brainer when I first saw the lines last night, but that big line move today has scared me into a Pass. Indiana State is not a bad pick. Or Eastern Michigan. Or even Kentucky. Already mentioned Bobcats and Grizzlies in the NBA. See, I really did narrow it down. Good luck everybody.

Justice For Jim Rice, Plus Hoops Picks

Long overdue congrats to Hall of Famer Jim Rice. I can't quote you all of his stats, although I remember that he won at least one MVP and was an All-Star for a long time, but when I was kid, this guy was feared. For several years, the guys pitchers absolutely didn't want to face were Mike Schmidt and Jim Rice (and Reggie Jackson was still in there somewhere I think), and it took 15 years of voting to get him in. Ridiculous. Better late than never, I guess. With him and Art Monk both finally in, I have a lot less to whine about Hall-of-Fame-wise. Tonight's basketball:

NBA

Thunder +6.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Bulls +2 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Betting and line movement. Although I pick them everyday, I swear I don't think Oklahoma City is a good team. And that Bulls pick makes me a little queasy, but I'm not going to argue with the big run we've been on since we let go of all rational thought when picking NBA games. Luke.....let go....use the Force....

College Basketball

Louisville -6 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

This one makes me a little queasy, too, but I just don't believe that the guys running the sportsbooks woke up this morning and decided that they were just going to give away free money to 80% of their customers. I just don't believe that. That huge number of bettors on Notre Dame can't move this line at all? Bullshit.

The Citadel +3 -116, 1.16 units to win 1 unit

I'm really annoyed by the college hoops juice I'm paying tonight, but it is what it is. I think I have might have some kind of man-crush on this Citadel team, so beware on this one. Line moving in their favor, we'll take the home team.

Appalachian State +11 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit

More lousy juice (the alternative was +10.5 -110 which is worse). Like I don't think OKC is a good team just because I pick them all the time, I don't think Davidson is bad just because I seem to pick against them all the time. I just think they're not as good as the lines would suggest (or, in other words, not as good as the public thinks they are after hearing about Stephen Curry on ESPN all the time). Big support for Davidson, but no movement in the line all day. Go Mountaineers.

P.S. Rickey just called on behalf of Rickey and said that Rickey likes these picks.

Wherein I Fix College Football

I need something to take my mind off the fact that my beloved UNC Tar Heels have started out 0-2 in the ACC this morning. Usually, my job would do the trick, but it's an exceedingly slow morning at the office today. So I'll take about 20 minutes to solve the most vexing riddle in sports-- how to decide the college football Division 1-A national championship. I will assume that almost everyone would like a system that: (1) is fair; (2) protects tradition, i.e. the bowl games and the importance of the regular season and conference races; (3) doesn't place too much of a strain on the student-athletes; and (4) protects financial/scheduling interests of the schools, the networks, etc. With this in mind, here's what I've got. Hey, it's gotta start somewhere:

The championship will be decided by a twelve-team playoff. Four teams, all champions of one of the BCS conferences, will receive byes. They will be the top four conference-winning teams as ranked by a formula similar to the BCS (I'll get to this later). These teams will "host" four bowl games, all played on New Year's Day. The teams are subjectively assigned to the bowls based on tradition and geography by an NCAA Bowl Committee: Generally, Pac-10 or Big Ten champion to the Rose Bowl, Big 12 or Pac-10 champion to the Fiesta Bowl. SEC or Big 12 to the Sugar Bowl. SEC, ACC or Big East to the Orange Bowl.

The remaining eight teams will take part in play-in games. These eight teams will be as follows: the remaining two conference champions will host a game on their campus. The other two teams hosting play-in games will be the top two remaining teams according to the BCS formula. The final four teams will be the last four teams according to the BCS formula. However, any BCS Division 1-A team that is undefeated gets an automatic spot in the "bowl play-in" round. This is non-negotiable. If the powers that be think a team's entire conference slate is too weak to warrant inclusion, then they shouldn't be in Division 1-A.

The play-in games will be grouped with a bowl by an NCAA committee in accordance with the following procedure: (1) making sure teams from the same conference do not match up in the bowl games; (2) tradition (e.g. if the Big Ten champ doesn't get a bye, give it a chance to "play in" to the Rose Bowl); and (3) geography. These games take place on Xmas Eve and Xmas Day (two games each). As a Jew, I'll leave it to someone else to figure out the best way to schedule them without interfering with Gentile family bonding time.

All four bowl games happen on New Year's Day. The day starts with the Orange Bowl kicking off at 11:30 AM EST, the Sugar Bowl at 3 PM, the Rose Bowl at 6:30 PM (there's something about the sun still shining out west during the Rose Bowl kickoff, in my opinion), and the Fiesta Bowl at 10PM. Presto: college football's postseason recaptures the New Year's holiday and in one swoop turns it into the greatest single day in the couch potato calendar. As it should be.

National semifinals take place the first full weekend after new year's, i.e. at least seven days after new year's. There's a bit of a scheduling concern here, since this would likely be the NFL's divisional playoff weekend, and those games cover Saturday and Sunday. I'd propose playing one national semifinal on Friday night, and the other on Saturday at 1 PM, before the NFL games kick off. These two games take place at a single neutral site. Semifinal matchups rotate among the bowls every year, i.e. one year Sugar plays Rose and Orange plays Fiesta, next year Sugar plays Orange and Rose plays Fiesta, etc.

The National Championship takes place the following Saturday evening at a different neutral site. It should be in a different region of the country from the semifinal site, ensuring that no team has to travel cross-country twice in consecutive weekends.

The other bowl games remain intact. College basketball has an NIT tourney with its own tradition that has remained viable in the shadow of a much larger and more inclusive tournament, and the same thing would happen here. They'd get what they get now- die-hard backers/people seeking a vacation excuse plus curious locals in the stands, serious fans and gamblers in the TV audience.

Here are the advantages to my system:

* the obvious one is that it gives the fans (and most of the teams) the playoff that they crave while protecting the bowl game traditions they also love.

* By starting the playoff over Xmas weekend, you don't have that full month break after the end of the regular season which results in complete loss of momentum for the sport.

* The finances are still there for both ESPN, which will start broadcasting the BCS in 2011, and the schools and conferences, which can use the same profit-sharing system they currently employ for the BCS, except now there's an additional two games' worth of revenue to add to the kitty (7 instead of the current 5). In fact, you have four extra games (the play-in games) to add to the mix. I don't know what ESPN's agreement is with the NCAA and what contingencies the contract addresses, but either ESPN would have yet another cash cow, or the NCAA would have four new and valuable games that they could auction off to the highest network bidder, depending on who had better lawyers negotiating the BCS broadcast agreement.

* The obvious and significant advantages for quality conference champions, and the automatic spot bestowed upon undefeated non-conference champions, ensure that every team kicks off the year with a shot at the title, and that the college football regular season remains as important and exciting as it is now.

* While there will still be gripes about who gets an at-large bid, arguments about snubs will be forgotten as soon as the bowl play-in games kick off, just as they are in college basketball. Honestly, can you remember who Vitale and Packer were whining about as "snubs" last March? Of course not. Do you know why? Because ultimately, the tourney is about choosing a national champion, and if you are even remotely snub-able, then you don't really belong in the conversation. As opposed to, say, Utah and USC this college football year, who have entirely legitimate gripes.

* No University is in session during Xmas and the New Year. So at most, you will have four schools who have to play "extra" football during the academic year. If they are really that concerned about it, they can opt out of the tournament. Hey, the Ivy League does it every year, so stop whining. If you're really concerned, then put your money where your mouth is.

About the BCS rankings: I'd like to see the computers be a bigger factor, and they need to be permitted to determine the team rankings in any manner they consider fair, including point differentials. Bill James has explained why better and more intelligently than I could. I won't get into it in greater detail here. But he makes some important points.

Finally, there's what the 2008 season playoff might have looked like under my system:

Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. (winner of Alabama at Virginia Tech)

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. (winner of Texas Tech at Cincinnati)

Rose Bowl: USC vs. (winner of Ohio State at Texas)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. (winner of Boise State at Utah)


Sweet Jesus, that would have been awesome. Feel free to tell me why this won't work in the comments. Or, you know, forward it to your favorite sports blog if you can't find a hole. I'd add more commentary, but my phone and inbox are finally starting to get warm.

Sunday Night Basketball

Lots to do today, so here's all the rest:

NBA

Kings +3 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

College Basketball

Western Michigan -1.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Wake Forest +5.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units

Southern California +2 -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit

No time for individual explanations today, but if you've been reading this blog for more than 5 minutes, you can probably guess how we arrived at these. Good luck everybody.

Sunday Afternoon Basketball

Not a whole lot going on today. Here are the early hoops picks:

NBA

76ers +6 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

I'm not working too hard this Sunday. Betting and line movement.

College Basketball

Kent State +2.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Here again, just following the line movement.

Iona +4.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Now, this one is really interesting. A week ago, at home, Iona lost to Rider by 14 points. Today, going to Rider's gym, they are only 4.5-point dogs? That's about as fishy as it gets. Line opened at Rider -6 and has dropped pretty quickly over the last hour (all the way to +4 at BetUS), even with 68% of the wagerline crowd on Rider. Win or lose, you would have to to hire a guy named "Slugga" to stop me from playing this one.

I don't think Grover is going to have anything in the NFL games today, but I'll probably be back with something for basketball tonight.

Saturday's Headlines

-
Carolina Panthers Lose Battle, Lose War

Governor Blagojevich Appoints Under-Qualified Ravens to Vacant Playoff Seat

Cowboys Fed-Ex Release Papers, Pac-Man Shoots The Messenger

Shivering Satan Asks, "What Happened? Did Duke Win In Tallahassee?"

Murray Wins Easily, Roddick Claims Hot-Model-Fatigue Syndrome

Yankees Pick Up Stephon Marbury Contract "Just For Show"

Clemson Tigers Improve To 16-0, Book NIT Hotel Reservations Early

Bears Tired Of Defense Overshadowing Offense, Hire Marinelli As D-Coordinator

Huggins Walks Fine Line At Marquette, Stumbles Badly
_

Calling It A Night

I've been on the fence about UC-Riverside for the past couple of hours, but since we're 5-1 in college hoops already today, and I'm not completely sold on it, it's gonna be a pass. Thought about LMU as well, but didn't like it quite as much as Riverside. Back tomorrow to do it all over again.

Saturday Evening Hoops

The next group of basketball picks:

NBA

Knicks +6 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Sounds like a broken record, but again just going with the line move and against the public's slight lean to the Rockets. Injury concerns for the home team tonight also.

College Basketball

The Citadel +17 -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit

That recent line drop back down to 16.5 or even 16 at most books seals the deal on this one. Overrated team vs. Underrated team. Citadel playing at home where they keep all their firearms, just in case things get out of hand.

Elon +10 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Public seems to like Western Carolina by double digits, but line has held pretty steady.

Illinois-Chicago +8.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Around 70% on Cleveland State all day, and in a matchup with two good teams, we'll go against the public where all those recreational bets weren't enough to budge the line an inch.

Good luck everybody. Considering one or two more for late night, but no promises.

Saturday Early Hoops Picks

Just a few in the early hours:

Hofstra +14 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Slight consensus on VCU (63%) at Wagerline, line has taken a small step backwards. A few points too many.

Georgia Tech +7.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

No public consensus to go against, betting split right down the middle pretty much everywhere, but with the retreat from the opener of +8.5, and my subjective (square!) preference for the Yellow Jackets' athleticism and the rebounding of Lawal & Aminu, we're going with the line move here.

Providence +11 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

There are some very smart people out there (Pomeroy, Vegas Watch, etc.) who love the Hoyas based on win/loss margins, and the numbers are what they are, but I'm just not sold. Outside of the UConn win, their results aren't overwhelming and for God's sake can somebody on that team grab a rebound once in a while? Providence has balanced scoring, solid bench production, and with the line falling from the Pinnacle opener of Georgetown -12 in the face of decent public support for the Hoyas (62% Wagerline, 70% Sportsbook, 73% Carib, 61% Sports Insights), we're on the Friars this afternoon.

I'm predicting that there will be more plays later. Just a hunch.

NFL Divisional Playoffs

But first, how about a salute to my aging partner, dating himself with that Norm McDonald reference? I'm surprised he didn't opt for a Burns and Allen crack.

Not a lot to like this week. One underdog, the Cardinals, is getting a lot of points, but also a lot of the action, which of course we don't like. Two other road dogs, Baltimore and Philly, are the top two teams in the DVOA rankings. I was ready to play the Eagles at the +6 or +7 number I expected, but alas, Vegas denied me and put them at +4. The final game, San Diego at Pittsbugh, just leaves us feeling blah.

So we're gonna fade one of our favorite/most profitable teams this season. Ugh. I feel dirty.

Tennessee Titans -3 +111 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.11 units.

The Ravens are actually getting the majority of the action as a three-point underdog. Tennessee appears to have fallen out of favor with the public, but I'm not exactly sure why. They have been playing well, and now they're healthy again (except for Kevin Mawae). In fact, Sportscenter is playing in the background as I type, and they just said Vanden Bosch and Hanynesworth are good to go. Baltimore is the top team in the DVOA rankings, but the Titans are close enough to the top to make them a decent play at home with an extra week of rest in the playoffs. I think the recent runs by the Giants and Steelers from the wild card slots have made a lot of people forget about the historically enormous edge that the home teams have in this round. Remember how a couple of years ago these games were almost formalities setting up a Conference championship between the top two teams? I don't think two impressive runs by the Steelers and Giants changes things that much.