I almost feel guilty about that Louisville cover last night, but I'm not giving the money back. 99% of the time, I'm on the underdog that goes into overtime and misses the spread. Tonight's picks:
College Basketball
Buffalo +5.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Subjectively, I don't see how Akron is that much better Buffalo. Just don't see it, even playing at Akron. I've never watched a game in the Zips home gym, but I would imagine we're not talking about Cameron Indoor Stadium here. Objectively, most folks are on Akron, but the line has retreated.
Central Florida +10 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Another line retreat in the face of decent support for UAB. Jermaine Taylor and a much deeper bench keep UCF within single digits.
Kansas State +7.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
The reigning National Champion getting 70% of the love from the public, while poor Kansas State is still pining for Michael Beasley. If Kansas is that much better, why hasn't the line gone up from the opener of Kansas -8.5 instead of dropping?
Northern Iowa +4 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Another 70% favorite in this one (Evansville), but no movement in the line. If the Purple Aces get spanked, do they get Purple Asses? I'm freaking hilarious.
Georgia State +12 +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units
If neither team gets 55 points, I imagine it's gonna be tough for ODU to cover this spread. I'm a little concerned about this line, since Georgia State just beat Old Dominion at home 10 days ago. Is the ODU homecourt edge worth 13 points? Maybe. I just hope it's not worth exactly 14 points, because I'll be kicking myself for not taking Georgia State +13 -108, even if the way I went was the right way to go.
NBA
Kings +7.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Passing Bobcats and Grizzlies because of injury question marks, but I haven't seen any such worries here. Kings are playing hard and keeping games close lately, even if they're not getting the straight-up wins. Sounds like my Thunder, although I fear that my love affair with OKC may be coming to an end as people are beginning to catch on.
Way too many picks on a night with so few games, but I weeded out as many as I reasonably could. I thought Tulsa would be a no-brainer when I first saw the lines last night, but that big line move today has scared me into a Pass. Indiana State is not a bad pick. Or Eastern Michigan. Or even Kentucky. Already mentioned Bobcats and Grizzlies in the NBA. See, I really did narrow it down. Good luck everybody.
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5 comments:
K St as a fav at home gets drilled by Sooners now go on the road to arguably the toughest home court in the land....opposite of you on this....Bradley my top play tonight - ISU point guard out - his replacement is a kid who has never started a college game before.....Plus, a bad team coming off a big upset ripe for a well coached team....G/L fellas
Kansas State getting beat by Oklahoma was actually another reason I liked them tonight, as strange as that sounds - thought they would be even more underrated as a result. Of course, if you just take away that 18-0 run that Kansas started the game with, that would have been a lot closer (now if I could only figure out how to take away that 18-0 run...). Nice night for you.
I will probably never get used to the huge swings in college basketball..If I didnt know that Kansas was up 18-0 (I did ) then when I checked the score with about 14 minutes left in the game and it was a 3 point game, I never would have guessed...
Kansas getting smoked by Mich St on Sat was a major reason I liked the Jayhawks....Good teams coming off an ass-whipping on the road and returns home to play will normally result in a good effort, throw in the fact that imo K-St is an overrated team, and then the line dropped from -8 to -6, Im going to bite...
The other part of college hoops that bites me in the ass occassionally is the big fav who is comfortable leading - ten points ahead of the cover and due to clearing the bench and the 3 point shot, no lead is safe....Cse in point, I also played BYU -14 last night....21 pt halftime lead - up to 25 in the early 2nd half...I fall alseep and wake up at 2AM - check the score and just about puke to see they won by 12........A 3-0 night is alot different than 2-1......
"throw in the fact that imo K-St is an overrated team"
Any reason you feel this way? A residual effect of having Michael Beasley and Bill Walker on the team last year?
I guess I just don't see it. Brutal loss with BYU though. Just a pathetic collapse.
Losing Walker and Beasley is a good start...Who did they beat prior to Big 12 play? Is close losses to Iowa, Kentucky, and Oregon signify they are solid? Oregon is junk.....Iowa is nothing to write home about.....And Kansas was giving only 6? Thats not alot of points...Plus the situation was what sold me.......Kansas returning home after an ass beating at Mich St.....Maybe thats what drove the line down....Plus K-St didnt show me much after going from a +1 doh to -2 hosting Okla on Sat and only hung with them for a half before losing by DD's........
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