The NBA is probably the only sport we're getting involved with tonight. Feeling a little better today, thanks for asking. The picks:
Pacers +1 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Public likes the Rockets on the road without T-Mac and Ron Ron. Line movement likes the home team. Guess who we're siding with?
Grizzlies +5.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Really? Seventy percent of wagerline has hopped on the Knicks bandwagon?
Timberwolves -1 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
This was posted as a comment on another blog about the Hornets after the line move in this game:
I had it at -2, I'll just put a little more now that it's at +1! Say we had a 60% chance before, now we've gotta be close to 70%.
Right, the books were sort of trying to give away money at first with NO -2, but then after taking more than 75% on the bets on New Orleans, they decided to REALLY give away some free money on this game by dropping the line 3 points. I keep worrying that with the "information superhighway" out there I keep hearing about, the recreational bettors are going to get more sophisticated, but every day there is plenty of evidence to the contrary. Think, people! For God's sake, the Hornets are starting Sean Marks at center! And Ely at power forward! Think!
Warriors +6.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Fading the Cavs has not been a profitable proposition so far this season, but we'll keep tilting at this windmill for a little while longer. Injuries are typically baked into the lines, but I don't think the random bettor is noticing that Z and West are OUT and Biedrins and Ellis are back tonight, they just see LEBRON vs. a lousy team and start drooling. A 32-8 team only favored by 6.5 over a 13-30 team? Here again, the bookies are putting out "gift" lines to help the economy, right? Silly.
In college hoops, almost pulled the trigger on Brown because of the screwy line (Yale won AT Brown by 8 points last week, now only favored by 5 over them at home?), but it didn't quite make the cut. In tennis, passing Verdasco and Gasquet. A lot easier to find value in the early rounds, when folks are focused on the big names. Once you get to a point where almost all the players are big names, it harder to find an edge. Good luck everybody.
2 comments:
I think that blog comment might have been tongue-in-cheek. Otherwise I'll be on a lot of the same losers you are.
Here's to not going 0-for tonight.
No, that's the scary part, I don't think it was tongue-in-cheek at all. The comment was the 3rd in a series of back-and-forth with the blog author. He was totally serious in his excitement about the line move. It's on moneyline's favorite blog today.
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