Well, I thought this tournament started tomorrow (WSEX has 1/19 as the date for all of the matchups), but it really begins tonight. So, just had time to look at a few, but I think I found a couple of decent picks:
J. Nieminen -122 over P. Mathieu (Matchbook), 1.22 units to win 1 unit
Mathieu has not been a very good hardcourt player in his career, but because the seeds are heavily dependent on the world rankings, he is seeded in the Open at #28, even though most of his success comes on clay courts. That's good for us, because we get a pretty short price on Nieminen, who lost to Nadal in the Quarterfinals here last year and was a finalist in one of the hardcourt warmups (Medibank Open) for this event last week, defeating several good players along the way, including Novak Djokovic. Think of the unseeded player favored over a seeded player like finding an unranked basketball team favored over a ranked team. That would picque your interest, right?
S. Querrey +115 over P. Kohlschreiber (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.15 units
This was a really good find, if I do say so myself. Querrey is young, but he is best on the hardcourts and has had his best Slam results at the Australian. He was a Finalist in another one of the hardcourt tuneup events (Heineken Open) last week. Kohlschreiber was also at the Heineken, but was forced to withdraw with a shoulder injury just 3 days ago. Doesn't sound like he's in top form, but because he is seeded (#32) and Querrey is not, we're getting a decent number here. When I first saw this line at WSEX, it was +120, but has dropped a little in the past couple of hours, which is usually a good sign to us as well. Famed tennis trainer Nick Bollettieri thinks Querrey will have his breakout season this year, but of course, you have to read Nick's site with the knowledge that he seems to be partial to American players and to those who have attended his academy in Florida. This one looks so good, it's probably a sure loser.
Now that's really it for today. I'm probably supposed to say something cute with "mate" at the end, but I just don't have the energy today.
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