Before we get to it, how about them Utes? I think my favorite part was Barry Switzer in the pregame show, talking about how they wouldn't be able to handle Alabama's O Line and completely ignoring the fact that Alabama was without the best O lineman in college football.
Utah's and USC's coach have both made strong anti-BCS statements. Don't you think that if they scheduled a neutral-site game next week, the vast majority of the public would consider the winner of that game the legitimate national champion?
The third-place game next Thursday should be good too.
OK, on to the NFL. Four home dogs are all tempting, but we're going to pass on the Sunday games. Regular readers know I'm a DVOA devotee. Philly and Baltimore are the top two teams in the league according to DVOA numbers. That means two passes, regardless of the public betting trends and line movements. Saturday's slate looks a lot better, though.
Arizona Cardinals +2.5 -110 BetUS, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
BetUS keeps giving contrarian bettors a little something extra on the lines. A lot is being made of the Cardinals poor performance down the stretch. Do people realize that they played without Anquan Boldin in both games, and were essentially playing for nothing for the last few weeks? All four home teams are the consensus picks according to the Wagerline numbers. Atlanta is getting the least amount of public love at 60%, but we're still happy to take the other side, especially with BetUS giving us an extra 1.5 points.
San Diego Super Chargers +2 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
For the first time in memory, WSEX gives us the best line on an NFL game! I feel so much better about keeping that tab open while doing my NFL posts now. Once again, too much being made about teams' performance down the stretch. Here both teams are playing well, but only Indy is getting the media and public love (69% according to Wagerline). The teams' DVOA numbers are virtually identical. If you're hesitant to pull the trigger on the Chargers, just pretend that Hochuli made the right call on that Cutler fumble in Week 2 and that Hail Mary that the Panthers completed on the last play of Week 1 had been incomplete. They're still red-hot, and still have huge wins at Tampa Bay and home vs. Denver in the last two weeks, but now they're 10-6. Feel better?
Obviously you can keep an eye on the status of Tomlinson and Gates here before pulling the trigger.
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4 comments:
You guys got a great Az line at +2.5..I played it right before kickoff and it was Az -2.5...
That's a pretty serious line move. When I got Arizona at -2.5 at BetUS, they were +1 or +1.5 elsewhere. This was at about 8:30 AM EST on Sunday. I wonder what was behind it? I don't remember any negative news about the Falcons coming out on gameday.
On a related point: if you like making contrarian plays, I highly recommend opening a BetUS account. It seems as if they move lines more readily against public favorites, resulting in a couple bargains every week, even with the extra juice as compared to, say, Matchbook. They're also one of the only sites I've found that allowed no-fuss deposits from US credit or debit accounts last time I checked.
Not that we would ever encourage anyone to do something like that if it's not legal. Because that would be wrong.
I can legally spend all the money in my bank account on cartons of cigarettes and cases of whiskey, but betting on a football game is immoral.
...stepping down off my soapbox now
When I logged into my offshore at 8 AM on Sat, Az was a pickem.....By 3:30 PM, it was 2.5...............Im guessing it was just a lot of Az money taken by this offshore book.
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